Money Life with Chuck Jaffe

Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research, says that "Bull markets don't die of old age, they die of fright, and what they are most afraid of is recession." But he says the current bull market not only doesn't need to be too worried about recession yet, he says that after celebrating its third birthday, it has gotten into the rarified air of a market that can keep running and producing positive results for longer. While he is not expecting a big, double-digit year in 2026 for the stock market, he says modest gains — tempered by heightened volatility and a...

Bryce Doty, senior portfolio manager at Sit Investment Associates, says that history has shown that nearly every new Federal Reserve chairman does "something dumb" when they first get the job. With Jerome Powell soon to be out as Fed chair, Doty says the central bank is in a tricky place, where it could make a cut before the change and have the next chairman come in anxious to cut further, making a policy mistake that hurts the market, but creates buying opportunities for investors willing to ride it out.

He's not the only one on today's show...

Dan Fuss, vice chairman at Loomis Sayles & Co., now 92 years old and having cemented a track record as one of the best bond fund managers ever, says he's not concerned about a recession because the economy is strong, and in some ways stronger than its ever been during his investing lifetime, but he also compares current times to the late 1930s, a period when geopolitics were dominating the global scene building up to World War II, and says that he is more concerned with those macro-level worries than he has been in his career.

Fuss notes that...

Ben McMillan, chief investment officer at IDX Advisors, says that "gold's run is not over," and while he thinks it could easily reach $5,000 an ounce in the short order, he says "It's not inconceivable that within the next half-decade, gold could be sitting at $10,000 an ounce." (Gold is currently trading at roughly $4,225 an ounce.) He also says he expects the Federal Reserve to reach a point in the next 12 to 24 months where it lives "with a new normal of inflation" and resets its target inflation rate to reflect different thinking, which will mean consumers and investors have to adjust to...

Scott Brown, Chief Strategist at Brown Technical Insights, is wondering "if the market is sniffing out something," because he has seen a change in the last month on the sectors that are now leading the way forward, and it's not the same things that were leading just a few months ago. Brown notes that banks, transportation, global materials, steel and copper stocks are among the areas that now have taken market leadership, and he says that "there's real upside" to where they can drive the market close to a level of 7,000 on the Standard & Poor's 500 by year's end.

Jeffrey Hirsch, editor of the Stock Traders Almanac, says that artificial intelligence is creating a "super boom," because it's a "culturally-enabling, paradigm-shifting technology," which he says can drive the Dow Jones Industrial Average to 62,000 — up about 30% from current levels — in just a few years. Hirsch, also the chief executive of Hirsch Holdings, also discusses calendar and seasonal impacts on the market and how he expects a Santa Claus rally this year, but what it means if the market misses out.

Vijay Marolia, chief investment officer at Regal Point Capital, debuts as Money Life's newest regular in a segm...

Brandon Thurber, chief market strategist at Regions Asset Management, says climbing the proverbial wall of worry has "supercharged the market," making it hard "to find reasons to be anything less than positive and constructive for 2026." While he worries that the message could be that "The only thing you have to fear is fear itself" — and he describes in The Big Interview the real fears that he feels could blossom into problems — he doesn't expect conditions to change much from 2025, and is mostly encouraged about domestic and international markets.

Ken Berman, strategist at Gorilla Trades, says that he'd be f...

Joel Litman, founder/chief investment officer at Altimetry Research, says that investor worries about valuations are overblown because "good data" shows that current conditions are more like the mid-1990s — the middle of a bull market — than 2000 when the Internet bubble burst. He says in the Market Call that with real core earnings growing for a lot of companies, valuations are still reasonable, which is why he says current conditions make for a screaming bull market with several years where it can keep running before investors should get worried and nervous.

Brad Neuman, senior vice president/director of m...

Steve Rick, chief economist at TruStage, says he expects inflation to rise to roughly 3.2 percent early in 2026, and says that increase — a long-awaited after-effect of tariffs — to mute the impact of interest rate cuts and other policies. Still, he stopped short of calling for a recession, noting that he thinks the market can overcome extremely high valuations to move forward modestly. He does think the economy may be moving into a period where it supports flat or slow growth for several years, but said it can avoid a crash or a bubble popping if it can avoid nightmare scenarios that...

Indrani De, head of global investment research at FTSE Russell, says that there are tailwinds in place — from currency fluctuations, valuations and geopolitical changes — that make developed markets outside of the United States look particularly promising for next year. She says in The Big Interview that correlations between domestic and international markets have been greatly reduced in the last two years, which raises the benefits of diversification, and she suggests that spreading money around will pay off in both returns and in lowering portfolio risk, particularly if spending and investing in artificial intelligence slows and stops masking other market weak...

Sonia Fraher, head of cash management at Vanguard says that while nearly three-quarters of Americans say they will fall short of their saving and spending resolutions for this year, most are optimistic that they can pull off a "resolution rebound" in 2026. Vanguard's survey research showed that 84 percent of Americans expect to make a financial resolution for 2026, with building the emergency fund being the most common goal.

In honor of the holidays, David Trainer of New Constructs revisits the Damger Zone pick he is most thankful for this year, due to its success as a short pick. 

It's a day for talking smart holiday shopping, and the show takes that focus to the investment world.

John Cole Scott, president of CEF Advisors — the chairman of the Active Investment Company Alliance — is back on Black Friday for the fourth straight year looking for big discounts among closed-end fund, and he's got several names that might work for investors looking to make portfolio changes before year's end. He offers up two ideas for municipal-bond funds, two business-development companies and two direct offerings that the market has put on sale and that investors might want to consider wrap...

Tom Stringfellow, chief investment strategist at Argent Trust, says that he expects stock market volatility to increase, especially as the Federal Reserve makes fewer cuts than observers are hoping for, but he doesn't see "a worrisome correction, I just see market testing." Those tests will break some trends in sectors and industries, but shouldn't break the market's ability to post modest gains.

In honor of the Thanksgiving holiday being the real start of the holiday shopping season, Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, picks a retail-themed fund as his "ETF of the Week."

Sara...

Marta Norton, chief investment strategist at Empower, says the stock market has high valuations, but notes that it lacks the excessive economic risk-taking and the fear-of-missing-out sentiment that are necessary to create true bubble conditions. But she notes that avoiding a bubble doesn;t mean it's smooth sailing ahead, as she says in Empower's outlook for 2026 that she expects anemic job growth to be a primary economic story. That jobs picture puts the Federal Reserve "between a rock and a hard place and maybe a third hard place," with the labor market making it tough for the central bank...

Amar Reganti, fixed income strategist at the Hartford Funds, says "The uncertainty is real," over the potential not only for what the Federal Reserve could do but how the market and economy will respond to whatever decision gets made. Reganti says investors are facing the prospect of rate cuts spurring higher inflation, but a lack of action resulting in a tougher employment market and that both outcomes could make things a lot scarier and nerve-wracking than they are now.

Rachel Perez discusses a BestMoney.com survey showing two-thirds of consumers say they lose more money paying annual...

Zach Jonson, senior portfolio manager at Stack Financial Management, says the stock market is facing a trifecta of bear-market risks that could lead to "one of the great bear markets of our lifetime," with losses surpassing 40 percent and lasting for as long as 18 months when it finally bursts. Despite that, he says there are ways to "invest through it," and that's precisely what he is doing, because despite bubble conditions, there are pockets of value and there could still be a lot of market upside until the inevitable pop of this balloon.

But the talk starts today...

Andrew Foster, founder and chief investment officer at Seafarer Capital Partners — manager of the Seafarer Growth and Income Fund — says that it's the "bottom of the first or, maybe, bottom of the second inning with respect to how tariffs will play out," but he notes that emerging markets companies have pushed higher prices back on U.S. consumers, which means the story has a lot of twists and turns left to navigate. Foster also says that domestic investors want to use emerging markets -- and foreign currencies -- to diversify portfolios against what lies ahead, noting that over-exposure to the...

David Russell, global head of market strategy at TradeStation, says that as artificial intelligence become less of an economic focus, the market will wake up to potential weakness on Main Street, where "recessionary patterns" are already visible. He is expecting "one of the weaker holiday seasons in a while," and says that a lot of signs that have been viewed as bullish have become much more questionable. He would not be surprised to see the market test October lows — roughly 6,550 on the Standard & Poor's 500 — before year's end.

   Nate Miles, head of retirement at Allspring Global Investments, discusses the fi...

Joe Quinlan, head of market strategy for Merrill Lynch and Bank of America Private Bank, says that the U.S. consumer higher-income households "are in great shape heading into 2026," and so long as the Boomers continue spending, the economy and stock market can roll along. Quinlan says that the economy can avoid a recession if the Federal Reserve can avoid policy mistakes, if the U.S. stays out of a difficult trade war and if the extraneous factors mostly stay at bay. Given what the market has weathered in 2025, Quinlan says there is reason to believe the rally can...

Gargi Chaudhuri, chief investment and portfolio strategist for the Americas at BlackRock, says the market's recent action represents "a fairly healthy pullback," the kind of periodic "cleansing" that markets go through, and that the recent action is less based on whether earnings can continue to drive valuations higher than it is on nervousness over the Federal Reserve's next move. Chaudhuri says that the current focus on whether the Fed will cut rates again in December is misplaced, because continued earnings growth, gross domestic product numbers and the fundamentals of the stock and bond markets will do more to determine how...

Buck Klintworth, senior vice president and portfolio manager at Chase Investment Counsel, says the market isn't looking like it will make dramatic moves before the end of the year, but he does expect a "small correction." Because he believes that the underpinnings for the economy are solid and forces like the artificial intelligence boom are backstopping the market, he expects that correction to be a buying opportunity for investors.

Tani Fukui, senior director for global economic and market strategy for MetLife Investment Management, says she expects the Federal Reserve to follow through with rate cuts — even as th...

Robert Farrington, founder of The College Investor, posed 100 personal finance questions to Google AI and came away with 37 "misleading or inaccurate" answers, and while that sounds horrible, it actually represents an improvement of six percentage points over the results Farrington got making the same queries a year ago. Farrington notes that the outcomes are only as good as the inputs, meaning that consumers who don't know the right questions to ask will be more poorly served by artificial intelligence than those who know enough to ask solid questions.

Catherine Collinson, president of the Transamerica Center for Retirement...

Stephanie Guild, chief investment officer at Robinhood, says that the stock market has ridden earnings growth to the record highs it has set this year, but she is worried that with valuations at high levels, earnings growth can't sustain higher price-earnings multiple to push the market up further. Guild notes that Robinhood's customers have changed some of their investment habits as market conditions have evolved in the post-Covid market; they're still buying dips, but more on a single-name basis rather than buying broad markets and riding indexes. Further, Guild says she will be watching investor buying behavior during dips...

Matthew Timpane, senior market strategist at Schaeffer's Investment Research, says the stock market is entering "the most bullish season of the year," and the bears missed the chance for a big pullback once the market got past mid-October. Now he expects the market to grind higher for the rest of the year, but he notes that things may change once the holiday buzz changes and 2026 moves forward.

Stuart Katz, chief investment officer at Robertson Stephens, says that rate cuts will make cash less attractive, which will push a lot of money that has been on the sidelines...

Sal Gilbertie, chief executive officer at Teucrium Trading — which runs several commodity specific ETFs, like the Teucrium Soybean fund — says that while tariffs are being blamed for high prices for goods like coffee, cocoa, beef and more, it's actually the weather and long droughts in certain key growing areas that have steadily increased prices over several years. Still, Gilberties says tariffs have had an undeniable impact, some of it negative — with trading partners losing trust in the United States — some of it positive, because commodities are still moving around world markets. He says that investors who can stomach the volatili...

Tom McClellan, editor of The McClellan Market Report, says that market flirting with record highs has masked how many companies are actually reaching new lows, but that condition — when new lows outnumber new highs — is a key part of an indicator called the "Hindenburg Omen," a sign that historically shows up in the charts at market tops. It's been seen on the market four times in the last week, along with a similar indicator called the "Titanic Syndrome." Those are warning signs, McClellan says, but even if the rally continues for a while longer, he's expecting struggles in 2026 before a re...

Scott Wren, senior global market strategist at the Wells Fargo Investment Institute, says he wouldn't mind a small market setback or breather to calm the nerves, especially because he's used those kinds of moments this year to add to his equity positions, noting that his target for the Standard & Poor's 500 is 7,500 at the end of 2026, a modest but steady gain for next year. Wren favors financials currently for technical reasons, likes industrials for as long as the next decade, and made the strong case for utilities and energy providers as being the growth story for the next quarter century.<...

Dominic Ceci, chief investment officer at Johnson Financial Group, says "people are only going to pay so much for this market," which means that something besides price will have to attract continued investment. That source will be earnings, as Ceci says that strong earnings growth has powered the market this year and will carry it for as long as they stay strong. Ceci says the economy and market will get a boost moving forward from tax policies, the rate-cutting cycle, continued AI capital spending and more, which is keeping the risk of recession low for the next year.

Adrian Helfert, chief investment officer for alternative and multi-asset investments at Westwood Holdings Group, says that a stock market that has averaged a 17% annualized gain for well over a decade "is not the equity environment that my dad knew," but while over-sized gains make investors worry that trouble must lie ahead, he thinks the market will roll on for as long as earnings continue to grow. Helfert says there's about a 30 percent chance of a recession in the next 12 months, enough to worry about -- and to prompt investors to diversify -- but not enough to head to the...

Jim Carroll, senior wealth advisor and portfolio manager at Ballast Rock Private Wealth — known as the "Vixologist" on X — says that the Trump Administration is living up to the idea that it can "Make Volatility Great Again," as seen by record stock markets, but notes that the actions have raised uncertainty and made investors nervous. He says the stock market and economy are still "fussing around" with tariffs and other geo-political risks that could send the market for a loop, and says investors should be protecting themselves against a correction, though he notes that movement could be a steep decl...

JoAnne Bianco, senior investment strategist at BondBloxx, says that she doesn't expect there to be a need for a protracted cycle of rate cuts and makes the case that the Federal Reserve and the economy might be best served by stopping after one more cut, even if it waits through December to do it. Bianco says that markets -- particularly equity markets — want rate cuts — want rate cuts but could be overly optimistic about the impact that reductions would have when it comes to promoting spending, helping the labor market and more.

Kendall Dilley, portfolio manager, Vineyard Glob...

Bryan Whalen, chief investment officer and head of fixed income at TCW says he's now putting the odds of a recession at 60 percent, down from 80 percent at the start of the year, but he suggests that even in a no-landing scenario, investors can expect dramatically higher volatility as stock and bond markets head into 2026. Whalen pointed out that with rate cuts starting to take hold, investors may want to keep some powder dry for the opportunities he sees ahead as the market responds to how the Fed plays out the cycle.

In the Market Call, Ardal Loh-Gronager...

Rob Arnott, founding chairman at Research Affiliates, says that classic index instruction has investors buying stocks after they get hot, dropping stocks after losses have occurred and missing out on several percentage points of return in the process. Arnott says the largest stocks earn their place in the index, but that the stocks that move into or out of an index — a process that is actively managed with the most-famous indexes — is where the trouble happens. As for the personal indexes that are arising these days, Arnott says that, in general, you'd be better off letting a cat pick the...

Christian Chan, chief investment officer, at AssetMark, says that markets should remain favorable for as long as economic conditions stay modestly positive, but he notes that the artificial-intelligence boom is helping to ensure that's the outcome, putting a floor under how much damage can be suffered in any financial storms. Chan says he expects those storms to stop short of a recession and he's not as sure as some observers that the market itself is in a bubble; he expects the Federal Reserve to cut rates, but notes that they won't go too low for too long, which should...

Ed Cofrancesco, chief executive officer at International Assets Advisory, says there is a disconnect between Wall Street and Main Street, where the economy has been great for stocks but consumers have been feeling the pain. He is hoping to see rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, with the impacts trickling down to Main Street in ways that might perk up some of the soft data and consumer sentiment, and that could help people avoid falling into the trap of spiraling debt.

Stefan Sharkansky, creator of The Best Third, discusses his research, which shows that the classic "4% Rule" — wh...

Economist Dave Rosenberg, president of Rosenberg Research, says that his preferred indicators on economic growth are showing a slowing economy, where "the recession may already be starting." He acknowledges that the stock market "hasn't figured this out," but he says — based on the way Treasuries are trading — that the bond market has already figured it out. Rosenberg says that the market has "been in a bubble environment for many, many months," but that it can continue to inflate without popping for a while. "You're investing in an environment where the wind is in your face," he says, "it's not at y...

Steve Cucchiaro, chief investment officer at 3EDGE Asset Management, says we're in a "market melt-up," the last phase of a rally or bubble that creates a buying climax, but that typically ends with trouble. Cucchiaro says valuations are in one of the three greatest periods of overvaluation they have seen in the last century, making them more dangerous than investors expect. As a result, he is holding more in international stocks than domestic issues and is ramping up gold holdings to 10 to 15 percent of the typical client's portfolio. 

David Ellison, portfolio manager and financial services specialist for t...

Andy Wells, chief investment officer at Sanjac Alpha, says the market is in uncharted territory, but that's not just about record highs, but also because the Federal Reserve is in a position where it will be cutting rates with the market at highs and with the underlying conditions suggesting that a cut isn't warranted or necessary. Making cuts will appease the market, but it may lead to a steeper yield curve, which has Wells concentrating on the short end of the curve to minimize duration risk. Wells says that nervous investors are right to think that the market can't...

Economist and University of Chicago professor Alex Imas discusses "The Winner's Curse: Behavioral Economics Anomalies, Then and Now," which he co-authored with Nobel Prize winning economist Richard Thaler, and talks about the common curses impacting consumers and investors. Imas covers loss aversion and how it drives investors to make bad decisions, how the "endowment effect" explains our cluttered basements and much more.

In the first of two Market Call interviews this week that involve funds tied to political views, Hal Lambert, chief executive officer at Point Bridge Capital — creator of the MAGA ETF, Point Bridge America First — discu...

James Cordier, chief executive officer at Alternative Options, discusses how the worst drought in Brazil in the last century has coffee stockpiles at their lowest levels in over a decade, driving up costs for every consumer who needs their caffeine fix before they start work in the morning. Cordier, a long-time commodity trader, says that supply-and-demand imbalances are impacting a number of commodities — but most notably coffee and cocoa now — and says it is the commodity issues rather than tariffs that have driven most of the price hikes. At the same time, Cordier says that central bankers around the worl...

Steven Grey, chief investment officer at Grey Value Management, says that inflated valuations have him making cash his favorite investment choice right now, noting that they can gain interest income while avoiding significant market risk while waiting for stock prices to blow off. The cash, Grey notes, not only will increase an investor's sleep factor, but it gives them the option to be buying when the rest of the market is selling. Grey says in the Market Call that his thinking also extends to the stocks he prefers right now, noting that he expects Berkshire Hathaway — notably holding a mo...

Long-time financial journalist and markets observer Herb Greenberg, editor of Herb Greenberg's Red Flag Alerts, says that investor expectations have changed, based on markets where rapid gains seem easy. While he suggests that this mindset is not new — and notes that Wall Street always feeds the quacking ducks by giving them new ideas for how to capitalize on current events and trends — he says it is becoming harder for average investors to remember that a normal market is one that goes up slowly over time. He agrees with assessments that the market is in a bubble, but says investors shou...

Michael Green, chief strategist at Simplify Asset Management, says the stock market is inflating a bubble, but that it's really "a bubble on top of a bubble" in the artificial intelligence arena, where the stocks in the industry — but also those adjacent to the technology  are booming even though many have yet to prove a real ability to generate profits. Green is worried about slowing economic conditions and expects a recession to hit, barring some significant efforts by the government and/or central bankers --  in 2026. He says investors are overlooking opportunities in fixed income broadly and high-yield specifically, and...

Kathy Bostjancic, chief economist at Nationwide and the chair of the Outlook Survey for the National Association for Business Economics, says the latest survey, released Monday, showed higher expectations for economic growth for the rest of the year and into 2026, with GDP growth -- which had been pegged at roughly 1.3% -- now expected to grow by 1.8%. Bostjancic cautioned that the improved growth forecasts don't make for a frothy economy, but rather seem to reduce the chances of recession. She says that economists improved their outlook, largely because they were too pessimistic earlier this year as they forecast the impacts...

Meb Faber, chief investment officer at the Cambria Funds, says that "extremely high valuations are a weight that's hard to overcome," and that the United States is currently "the most expensive country across the board." He notes that when a country ends the year with a price/earnings ratio above 40, the average future 10-year returns are zero. As a result, Faber is suggesting that investors diversify internationally, consider gold — which her describes as being "like your crazy cousin Eddie" coming to the family holiday party — and more.

David Trainer, founder and president at New Constructs, says that comp...

Eddie Ghabour, chief executive officer at Key Advisors Wealth Management, says "the worst is behind us from the economic slowdown," and he expects growth to accelerate at the end of the year and into the first quarter. Combined with rate cuts, it will add fuel to a market that he says is clearly inflating a bubble, with that performance boosted as well by the longer a government shutdown rolls. He says investors should not fear the bubble, because the market will telegraph the bursting. "You can make the most money in bubbles," he says. "The key to bubbles is...

Rob Spivey, director of research at Valens Securities, says many investors believe the current stock market run to record levels has been about price momentum, but he says that earnings momentum has shown growth that is strong enough that it should calm the nerves of investors who think the artificial intelligence business is inflating a market bubble. Valens' research revolves around "uniform accounting," and Spivey discusses proposals that would change how often public companies must report earnings, and talks about why he believes it would not have as much impact on the market as many observers expect.

T...

Cheryl Smith, economist and portfolio manager at Trillium Asset Management, says the equity market is "very excited, very ecstatic and continuing to move up," but she warns that stock valuations are extended and she says the market is setting up a fall. Smith says two phrases -- "The Emperor is wearing no clothes" and "The band played on" -- tell the story of this market, but she expects that when the investing public wakes up to see damaging impacts of tariffs and other policies, the market will fall hard. She's not expecting that turn soon, but she says it's unavoidable...

Jeremy Schwartz, global chief investment officer at WisdomTree, says he "would like the Fed to be lower," and says that rate cuts from the central bank will help to spur small-cap stocks starting to participate more in the rally. Schwartz likes the looks of international stocks, but particularly Japan, which has reached record highs and finally recaptured peaks first experienced decades ago, but which Shcwartz says is valued in a way that supports significant future growth. Schwartz, co-author of "Stocks for the Long Run," says that while short-term turmoil could send the market for a loop, it is positioned...

Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM, says the economy is reasonably healthy and has been resilient amid difficult headlines, which make it likely to accelerate as rate cuts, tax cuts and deregulation kick in and provide a spending boost. At the same time, Brusuelas says he thinks the market is building "bubbles and period of over-speculation where there's a concentration of risk in one area of the equities market," which could lead to "a healthy correction" that brings the market back to earth and squeezes out the speculators.

David Trainer, founder and president at New Constructs, has...

Dan Zanger, chief technical officer at ChartPattern.com, says "the market wants higher" and is filled with cup-and-saucer patterns that "are waiting for handles to form," which is typically a bullish sign for individual names. Zanger says the broad market is showing some technical signs of resistance, but says investors should stick with what has been working. He did note, however, that for all of the publicity they get, not all of the Magnificent Seven stocks have been in the market's sweet spot from a technical standpoint; he favors Nvidia and Alphabet (google) at this point. 

Scott St...

Ed Campbell, the founder of Red Hook Phoenix Investment Partners, says that key shifts in the economy triggered by advancements in artificial intelligence and automation, changes to the financial situation, shifting geopolitics and more will make it so that markets and economies don't get so far off-kilter that they create boom and bust patterns. He says recessions and downturns will continue, but that the market will act more like it has in recent years, where it has climbed the wall of worry to new heights overcoming stumbles but avoiding crashes.

Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi...

Jeff Blazek, co-chief investment officer of multi-asset strategies for Neuberger Berman says that "valuation becomes less important when you have high conviction in sustained growth of earnings, economic growth and high return on equity," which is why he's focused on the earnings portion of price/earnings and is plowing forward with stocks even with the markets near record highs. Blazek acknowledges that valuations are stretched, but says that is much more important during times when there is less confidence in the economy continuing to grow and power solid earnings. Blazek likes the looks of international investments — particularly Japan and Ch...

Kristina Hooper, chief market strategist at Man Group, says that investors need to "keep on dancing" while the music is playing, but she says the tunes are about to change or stop, with valuations setting the market up for a decline of up to 20 percent that could might take a while to get here but which could show up this year if the market has a bad reaction to the Federal Reserve cooling on rate cuts. She notes that the rate-cut cycle could cut short the current small-cap rally, contributing to a down or sideways period. Hooper isn't backing...

With a potential shutdown of the federal government loming on Tuesday — which would result in hundreds of thousands of workers being furloughed — the stock market enters this week on edge. Dominic Pappalardo, chief multi-asset strategist at Morningstar Wealth, has examined how the market has responded to past shutdowns, and notes that the impacts typically are short-lived, though the longer any closure continues, the greater and more long-lasting the likely impacts.

Chuck follows up on the theme by noting that watching such a large number of workers potentially going through a personal crisis should trigger everyone to take a fi...

Jim Besaw, chief investment officer at GenTrust, says that the market is pricing everything as if all artificial intelligence ideas are going to come through and deliver revolutionary change and profits, and that investors are ignoring the risks that come with the technology. That could be setting them up for a fall, although Besaw is neutral on the market rather than negative, and is also neutral on asset allocations, noting that he's not leaning into specific sectors or markets -- with the possible exception of favoring international markets slightly to domestic -- and is instead at baseline levels trying...

Nate Thooft, chief investment officer and senior portfolio manager at Manulife Investment Management, says that he's still leaning into equities despite stock valuations being stretched, noting that the fundamentals support modest gains and aren't signalling a bubble or crisis. Thooft does worry that the market may run out of momentum and may lack a catalyst for further gains by the time 2026 rolls around, but for now he says there are plenty of reasons to keep investing and not to be scared off by high prices. 

Mark Hamrick, senior economic analyst at Bankrate.com, discusses the site's latest r...

Mark Fleming, chief economist at First American, says rate cuts are not a panacea for the housing market, especially because Americans got used to nearly 50 years of declining mortgage rates until they moved from the 3% level up to their 6% range over the last few years. Now — with consumers feeling like they have golden handcuffs in older, low-rate mortgages — Fleming says gains will be slow, because improved affordability will need to be driven by income growth among consumers, and paychecks will have to increase at a rate faster than home-price appreciation to overcome rate concerns. 

Dan Wiener, former chairm...

Phillip Wool, chief research officer and lead portfolio manager, Rayliant Global Advisors, says "there are places where valuations are so stretched I find it hard to explain," but he notes that is more in certain sectors and certain themes, but he says the global economy is in a good place, which makes him optimistic about the future for stocks, just cautious about how much investors should set expectations. He notes that when valuations get this stretched, future returns tend to be muted. He also discusses why he believes there is still time for investors who have missed the foreign...

Dec Mullarkey, head of investment strategy at SLC Investments, says that the market's earnings power is enough to keep pushing it forward, overcoming obstacles like increased tariff impacts and sticky inflation and leading to an optimistic outlook for next year  while acknowledging the headline risks that have investors' attention, Mullarkey said that earnings growth could extend to small caps — particularly after government deregulation efforts take hold — to broaden out and extend the current run.

David Trainer, president of New Constructs says a recent rally in shares of Snap Inc. doesn't change bad fundamentals. While Trainer said the compan...

Edward Yardeni, president and chief investment strategist at Yardeni Research, says "there's a lot of funky stuff going on in the labor market," and that reduced interest rates may not change conditions but could instead impact the market and contribute to a melt-up that helps the bull market roll on. While melt-ups do tend to be followed by a regression, Yardeni does not see the market reversing too sharply; he's not currently worried about a recession and instead says the current decade is a new Roaring '20s, though he notes that this go-round is unlikely to end in...

Brad McMillan, chief investment officer at Commonwealth Financial Network, says that while stock market valuations look high, "they're not crazy either," because the companies are making money at levels that justify the higher prices. He says he is leaning towards value — and holding cash while waiting for buying pullbacks — and away from the biggest names, noting that the Magnificent Seven stocks are "where the risk is."  He's not expecting a recession, noting that employment is holding and consumer spending is strong, conditions that normally forestall economic downturns.

Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, says the long-awaited rally...

John Blank, chief investment strategist and chief economist at Zacks Investment Research, says the conditions are increasingly bringing back the spectre of a recession, with the odds of a protracted economic slowdown now standing at about 50 percent. Moreover, he doesn't believe that the widely anticipated interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve today will really do anything to alter that course. Blank says that the recession could trigger a stock market sell-off that could cut valuations by more than 40 percent, though he does not think that any such decline will be long-lived.

Allison Hadley discusses research she...

Adam Rozencwajg, managing partner at Goehring and Rozencwajg — a fundamental research firm that focuses on making contrarian natural resource plays — says that the rally in gold is far from over, and that "until it gets to at least the long-term average [of its value relative to the market], you are in an aggressive bull market, an aggressive accumulation phase." That average would take gold to about $8,000 an ounce, meaning the asset has room to double. Rozencwajg also talks oil and why he likes it despite status as "the most hated asset class in the world."

Ryan Redfern, chie...

It's a wrap on FinCon '25 from Portland, but not before what Chuck describes as the "single best day of interviews [he has] done at any FinCon that Money Life has attended." Here's the lineup:

   — Paul Merriman is a long-time financial advisor, author and retirement columnist — he was writing for MarketWatch before Chuck got there in 2003 and still writes for them today — who has watched the transitions that have impacted the investing world over the decades. He gives his take on everything from ETFs versus traditional funds to crypto and much more.

   — Paula Pant is the host of...

It's the second day of interviews from FinCon '25, the annual event for financial podcasters, bloggers and content creators being held in Portland, Ore., and Chuck is chatting up fintech entrepreneurs, financial coaches, retire-early advocates and much more. Today's show includes:

   — Ravi Wadan, the founder of DriveMatch.com, discusses pre-negotiated car leases and the benefits of leasing online.

   — Nik Johnson of EverydayMoneyHeroes.com, who talks about overcoming the challenges that keep many families from building generational wealth, and how it is small daily moves or changes have impacts that can last for decades on families.

 ...

Money Life begins the first of three days of interviews from FinCon 2025, the annual gathering of financial content creators, which this year is in Portland, Ore., and which lets Chuck showcase a wide range of subjects.

Today, those subjects include:

 — college savings and the changing landscape of consumers paying off college debt with Robert Farrington of TheCollegeInvestor.com.

 — crushing medical debt, and an unusual way for consumers to get out from under it with Jared Walker, founder of the non-profit fintech start up Dollar For.

— a conversation that Chuck thinks may be the m...

 Jillian Johnsrud, the podcaster behind "Retire Often," and the author of a new book out this week that goes by the same title, says that a lot of people mess up their retirement lifestyle by not preparing for it with smaller retirements — lasting a month or more — during their prime working years. Not only do these smaller times allow people to recharge and rejuvenate, they become dry runs for the real thing, allowing pre-retirees to sample ideas and then plan how to execute the best concepts. Johnsrud — who says she has retired at least a dozen times despite only being i...

Conrad Doenges, chief investment officer at Ranger Investment Management — manager of the Ranger Small Cap and Ranger Micro Cap funds — says that smaller companies have suffered as an asset class because corporate earnings have struggled to meet growth expectations. While there is an expectation that small companies will benefit from a cut in interest rates and from deregulation policies from the government, Doenges says in the Market Call that earnings expectations remain muted, so the long awaited rally in small caps could come, but be less than investors have been waiting for.

Jeffrey Ptak, managing director at Morn...

David Giroux, chief investment officer at T. Rowe Price — named Morningstar's Outstanding Portfolio Manager for 2025 for his work at T. Rowe Price Capital Appreciation — says his allocation fund is holding near its highest levels ever of bonds, specifically intermediate fixed-income, largely because he thinks stocks are overvalued and real growth will remain hard to find. Giroux — who has beaten the average peer in his Morningstar asset class for 17 consecutive years, the longest streak in the entire fund industry — has long disdained investing in foreign stocks and says the rally that 2025 has produced overseas is an anomaly and that no one "sho...

Jim Welsh, author of "Macro Tides" and the "Weekly Technical Review," says he thinks the stock market "is reaching an inflection point," saying that the next time the Standard & Poor's 500 makes new records but without support from the highs in the advance-decline line, he will take it as a sign that the stock market is about to roll over.  Welsh says that several momentum indicators suggest a short-term decline could be between 3 and 7%, at which point he expects a bounce-back that lasts only until the economic concerns take hold. Welsh says a rise in layoffs would show that the m...

The Powerball jackpot that went unclaimed on Wednesday night will top $1.7 billion for its next drawing this weekend, and will mark the 13th time in less than a decade that the big prize has been north of $1 billion. Chuck talks about why jackpots have grown this large, how you might use the lottery as a personal finance tool — even if, like him, you never buy a ticket  and why the odds are never in your favor.

In the "ETF of the Week," Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, looks to a technology fund that mixes the big...

Rob Thummel, senior portfolio manager at Tortoise Capital — manager of the firm's energy infrastructure funds as well as its new AI Infrastructure ETF — says that in a three-decade career, he has never seen a better time to be looking at the energy sector, thanks to being the world's largest energy producer with opportunities to remain the global leader, but also due to the power needs created by artificial intelligence. He says "Electricity is the new oil," driving the economy forward the way oil companies used to. Thummel notes in his Market Call interview that he has now seen some Bitc...

 Chuck warned listeners a few weeks ago that he had been hit by a computer virus, and that they should not open a spam e-mail that was being sent from one of his accounts. But that was the beginning of his online misadventures, because he hadn't just gotten a virus, he was hacked. Thieves have stolen nearly $4,000 from an online bank account, and they did it right under his nose. He explains how it happened, how he caught it, why he thinks he will eventually get restitution from the bank and more.

Stephen Kates discusses a survey o...

Dana Samuelson, president of American Gold Exchange — a former president of the Professional Numismatists Guild — sees "a meaningful rally in gold" coming once the Federal Reserve makes multiple rate cuts, but adds that turmoil over Fed leadership and concerns that government data could be compromised or less transparent would build "a better bed from gold to rise from." Samuelson said he expects gold to be in the $3,900 to $4,200 per ounce range within a year, and that his forecast might be conservative if there is any sort of global debt problem or currency collapse.

 Kimberly Flynn, president at XA In...

 Jeff Clark, head of defined contribution research  at Vanguard, says the firm's latest "How America Saves" report for 2025 shows that consumers are doing a better job of setting money aside for their future, helped by rules that have made it easier for employers to help. The average total savings rate — including both worker contributions plus employer contributions — is now up to 12 percent, a potential target for all investors to try to achieve.

Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, turns to the first active bond ETF — a 15-year-old iconic fund from PIMCO — as an ultra-safe alternative to cash with...

Chuck became a grandfather for the first time on Sunday and has been planning how he will help his grandson financially for years, but today he chats with financial adviser and author Chris Carosa, author of "From Cradle to Retirement," about "Child IRAs," and how he plans to create an income for the baby and then invest that money into a Roth IRA to provide decades of tax-free growth. Carosa also discusses the new "Trump accounts," which give newborns $1,000 and allow parents to contribute more, and discusses how he would prioritize saving for a child's future.

Sudipto...

Simeon Hyman, global investment strategist at ProShares, says that with inflation running above the Federal Reserve's targets — forcing both the Fed funds 10-year Treasury rates higher — there's room for the Fed to cut rates but not much room for the market to respond to it. As a result, he's saying the market has room to broaden out, with small caps likely to be helped out by upcoming Fed cuts, but not much upside if large-cap stocks have to keep being the engine for growth. Hyman says that recession is unlikely for several quarters, as there is room for modest earn...

Crit Thomas, global market strategist at Touchstone Investments says the market can move higher — though with a path that is more bumpy — and the economy can avoid recession, but he also notes that the market is particularly hard to read because current conditions are dramatically different than many past situations. He cites a lot of reasons — from index concentration to fallout from the pandemic — for why looking back at market data seldom yields accurate forecasting right now. Thomas does expect a market slowdown, as earnings have been impressive but growth has been muted, which should make for slower markets ahead.<...

 Alan Gayle, president of Via Nova Investment Management, is concerned about economic sluggishness and "how the world is going to look and who is going to win" after tariff and rate changes fully play out. Coupled with a stock market where he sees equities as overpriced, that leaves Gayle wanting to be fully diversified, including a full allocation to domestic bonds but also international stocks, where he finds compelling values that he thinks can continue to run. Gayle says that he expects the Federal Reserve to cut rates soon, but "anything the Fed does today takes at least nine m...

Financial journalist Allan Sloan, a seven-time winner of business journalism's highest honor, the Loeb Award, says in his latest piece for Barron's that no investment strategy works forever, and that time is now up on the Magnificent Seven stocks. Sloan notes that during the first seven months of 2025, NVidia and Microsoft accounted for more than half of the gain of the entire Standard & Poor's return, but that Apple "was totally rotten and knocked 18 percent off the S&P's return." His point is that most of the seven stocks that have been driving the market for the last few years "...

Lawrence McDonald, creator of The Bear Traps Report, says that as "tertiary assets" like meme stocks and momentum plays have started to break down in the last week, it's a sign that volatility will pick up and that the market  is "coming into a 10 to 20 percent pullback in the next month to month and a half." McDonald says that the selloff will be part of a rotation, that the market broadly can recover but with new leadership. He is worried about the potential for the Federal Reserve to start cutting rates before inflation has been killed off, which he s...

Bill Stone, chief investment officer at Glenview Trust, says that there are signs that the economy is slowing, but he believes rate cuts can help the economy keep earnings growth going and can forestall any recession. "Betting against things to get better over the long run is not a very smart bet," Stone says, so he's suggesting investors don't let worries get the best of them now. Stone says that "A bet on Europe is a bet against technology," so while he understands concerns that investors have with valuations — particularly with the prices of tech stocks — he is not tilt...

Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at the Carson Group, says that he expects the stock market to go through "a 4% to 6% normal, mild pullback" in short order, a downturn that he says is likely to be good for the market, helping it get ready to benefit from positive economic news and an eventual cut in interest rates. Detrick says that he expects developed Europe to remain strong, and he believes investors who are heeding market worries should rebalance their portfolios to get back onto their plan, because diversification pays off when a market is touchy about headline events.

Eric Stein, chief investment officer, Voya Investment Management, says that if the economy can muddle through until the Federal Reserve cuts rates, it will be positive for the stock market and the broader economy, allowing for 2026 to be another year that continues the winning streak for stocks. Stein says that he believes markets "get desensitized to similar news over time," and that the current markets may still be fixated on tariffs, but "general tariff noise" is now priced in and aren't enough to derail the market or create a recession. He says that economic changes, including the building deregulation...

Jeff Muhlenkamp, portfolio manager for the Muhlenkamp Fund, says in today's Money Life Market Call that one of his big fears right now is in order to deal with government debt, authorities will de-value the dollar, so he has been adding gold and precious metals names to the portfolio to hedge against that potential. He is also looking at deregulation as a possible driver for future as well, and while he is a value-oriented manager, he noted that there are plenty of ideas that look promising despite a market that is at record highs.

David Lau, chief...

Mark Luschini, chief investment strategist for Janney Montgomery Scott, says that with no one talking about recession these days, he says "it is the one thing the market is at risk of having happen right now" because the market isn't pricing in any potential downturn. Recession is not his base case, but he says there is an economic soft patch to get through that will take the economy to the edge of stall speed; he does think the market will get through that to finish the year higher, with the Standard & Poor's 500 moving hitting 6,600. Luschini thinks investors will want...

Michael Kelly, portfolio manager and global head of multi-asset at PineBridge Investments, says that the evolution boom in artificial intelligence is the kind of generational market event that only happens "once every 20 or 30 years." He says it will be "very meaningful and we believe very good not only for the economy but for the markets." He is optimistic that the increased productivity created by the AI revolution can help the economy grow its way out of the fiscal concerns over deficits and other issues that overhang the market. That said, he does see mild turbulence ahead, but without a m...

Amanda Agati, chief investment officer at PNC Asset Management Group, says that with the purple haze of fiscal policy uncertainty and tariffs having lifted, the "pace of natural advancement" doesn't have a lot of room left in 2025, but after a slower grind into the end of the year, she thinks that 2026 "is shaping up to be an acceleration type of a year."  She expects broader stock market participation to help with that, though she says that breadth will extend to the 493 stocks that are in the Standard & Poor's 500 but not the Magnificent Seven, rather than to small caps. Agati al...

Craig Callahan, chief executive officer at ICON Advisers, says that his calculations on the stock market show that despite being near record-high levels, the market is "slightly underpriced relative to fair value," meaning it has room to move higher from here. Callahan says that a small-cap rally and market changes that started to surface a year ago were disrupted by the tariff tantrum but should return in the next year. Moreover, he sees continued economic growth, fueled by strong earnings and growth of the money supply rather than reduction in interest rates, which he says should be enough to...

Jurrien Timmer, director of global macro at Fidelity Investments, says that the market has been dealing with "cross-currents," where concerns about tariffs increasing inflation have been offset by declining oil prices, and where a lack of rate cuts has been countered by record corporate profits. It all combines to create a market that Timmer says can get past the concerns to deliver modest gains moving forward; he makes a case for domestic markets, noting they are not as overvalued as investors might expect after several big years and that they are not facing significant recession or downturn potential.  

Darrell Cronk, chief investment officer at Wells Fargo Wealth and Investment Management, says he expects both the stock market and the economy to face a "soft patch" that will increase volatility and mute returns for the rest of the year, but he believes conditions are strong enough that there will be no recession and that those year-end doldrums will lead to improvement and gains in 2026. Cronk, who also is president of the Wells Fargo Investment Institute, notes that his firm has already set year-end price targets for next year, and is forecasting 7,000 on the Standard & Poor's 500 as the "midpoint...

Nick Sargen, consultant and senior economic advisor at Fort Washington Investment Advisors, says that investors haven't really seen the economic impact of tariffs and other policies that experts were warning the public about, but they are seeing those issues now. "Fasten your seatbelts," Sargen warns, "you're just beginning to see the impacts." While not calling for a recession, Sargen says he sees headwinds for the market because "I don't understand how the market can keep setting record highs every day when now we are confronting major uncertainty." 

Carley Garner, senior commodity strategist at DeCarley Trading, says she s...

Thomas Winmill, manager of the Midas Discovery Fund and the Bexil Investment Trust, says that while the rally in gold is long in the tooth — at record highs having lasted twice as long as the standard rally — but he makes the case that it still has plenty of room to run, boosted by purchases made by central banks around the world. Winmill says that a rising dollar might end the rally, but that's not in his forecast; he sees rates staying low or stable, providing enough fuel that the price of gold-mining stocks "could be a triple from here." Davi...

Scott Ladner, chief investment officer at Horizon Investments, says he's "not super comfortable right now because everyone else is."While he doesn't see anything specific that could derail the markets, he notes that times when investors throw caution to the wind typically end badly, and that August historically has been a month for market surprises. Ladner says that earnings have been good enough to drive success this year, and that should continue, though it may reflect sluggish economic conditions and slow down a bit before the year ends. John Cole Scott, president of CEF Advisors — the chairman of the Ac...

Paul Gruenwald, chief economist at S&P Global Ratings, says he expects a jump in consumer prices to 3.5 percent by the end of the year, and — while he thinks the move will be temporary or a one-time response to resolution of tariff uncertainty — he expects that to make the Federal Reserve more cautious about cutting rates. That's especially true because he expects economic growth to slow from about 3% early in the year to just above 1% by year's end. Despite that damper on growth, he says the economy will avoid a recession, muddling through a period of doldrums. Todd Rosenbluth, head...

Frank Holmes, chief investment officer at U.S. Global Investors — also the executive chairman at Hive Blockchain — says that investors should adjust to market conditions that are "sunny but … windy," with more volatility and changing conditions but generally pleasant and not hard to navigate through "because we're in a secular bull market." Holmes discusses the recent strength in the gold market — where he advocates for a mix between holding the metal and owning miners — and in crypto markets, where he says adoption is key to continued growth and value creation. Deb Boyden, head of U.S. defined contribution at Schroders...

Matt Harris, chief investment officer at The Hausberg Group, says that he expects a correction in the not-too-distant future, but he says that it is more likely to be about time — where the market trades sideways and lets the fundamentals catch up to recent price activity  than it is about stock prices. In fact, Harris is not exceptionally worried about the current rally ending, because while the market is up about 30 percent since its April lows, it is only up about 15 percent in the last year. That's good, Harris says, "but not too far too fast," especially because current per...

Lyle Fitterer, senior portfolio manager for the Baird Funds — manager of the Baird Municipal Bond and Baird Strategic Muni Bond funds — says that absolute yields on fixed income looks pretty attractive, but that muni bonds have lagging some other bond types through the beginning of the year, but are poised now for better results in the second half of the year. Selma Hepp, chief economist at Cotality — chairperson of the Business Conditions Survey for the National Association for Business Economics — says that the July survey released today shows that corporate economists have reduced the odds that there's a recession moving f...

Brett Ewing, chief market strategist at First Franklin Financial Services, says he's expecting "green lights from here" for the market with a lot of policy moves by the Trump Administration getting to where they are sorted out and where they will impact the market later in the year, including de-regulation efforts which he believes will be an active investment play. Ewing noted that the stock market has already hit 12 all-time highs this year "and I think we are going to hit a lot more before the end of the year," noting that he started 2025 with his price target for...