The Sharp Square
By: Jeff Anton w/ Mike Knerr
Language: en-us
Categories: Sports, Football
Two amateur sports bettors take a more subjective approach to sports betting. The pros use analytics, Jeff and Mike use the eyeball test. There are plenty of podcasts to listen to the ego driven professionals mock the public and tell you how you should bet. This podcast has some fun with it and owns betting as the public.
Episodes
NFL 2025 Week 8; Dog Day Afternoon
Oct 23, 2025After a monster week for favorites, Jeff is expecting the bookmakers to tax bettors for betting the favs. He takes a look at some line moves creating great value on the underdogs. The Titans are looking at an ugly Betty title match and it's rah-rah Mike Tomlin time.
Duration: 00:51:04NFL 2025 Hindsight 20/20; post week 7
Oct 20, 2025Jeff is off a bounce back week and it was his best betting day of the season so far. The stock pick exercise is helping him get reads on the 49ers and Colts. Ultimate Decision got a huge win with Cleveland, but more important, Jeff finally picked a Dolphin game right! He also beat the closing line on the Bears and 49ers game while going against the wise guy market moves.
Duration: 00:21:59NFL 2025 Week 7; Gambler's Grief
Oct 16, 2025Jeff goes through his Sunday where he contemplated betting retirement after a frustrating morning football loss. Mike thinks the Patriots are homesick and the Colts are selling fake jewelry. Is this the week for the Jets? Jeff closes by suggesting how to get at handicaps through the prop market.
Duration: 00:58:28NFL 2025 Hindsight 20/20; post Week 6
Oct 13, 2025It was another mediocre week as Jeff hit on the Steelers and Cardinals, but missed on Denver and Philly. Ugly Betty takes a loss as well.
Duration: 00:14:01NFL 2025 Week 6; Ohio Dumpster Fire
Oct 09, 2025Jeff is going back to some original betting concepts and letting it fly this week with bets on the Eagles, Broncos and Steelers. He has some multi-verse wagering scenarios depending on who's quarterbacking for Arizona. He discusses how the media has jinxed Baker Mayfield with MVP talk. Some thoughts on three game road trips and a pick on the Patriots from Mike. And of course an Ugly Betty pick to close.
Duration: 00:53:24NFL 2025 Hindsight 20/20; post Week 5
Oct 06, 2025Jeff has let his fandom and emotion cloud his judgement, leaving him wishy-washy on what handicaps are good and which ones are lousy. Picks did just fine as the guys stock picks went 3-1. The trap game and ugly Betty both provide winners!
Duration: 00:17:54NFL 2025 Week 5; The Bookmaker Is Not Your Friend
Oct 02, 2025Jeff senses that the bookies are laying a trap this week. His ultimate decision is an attempt to bungle himself to fortune. Mike joins in as the guys each pick two teams to bet every week in October. Deep dives on 49ers vs. Rams, Colts vs. Raiders, Patriots vs. Bills and Cowboys vs. Jets.
Duration: 00:53:50NFL 2025 Hindsight 20/20; post week 4
Sep 29, 2025Jeff thought the Cowboys vs. Packers game was bad for the league. He talks about missing an opportunity to bet the Chiefs and mis-evaluating Geno Smith. Plenty of thoughts on the great, "almost" comeback by the Buccaneers.
Duration: 00:16:42NFL 2025 Week 4; Muster Up the Gusto
Sep 25, 2025Jeff and Mike are talking week 4 including Tampa Bay vs. Philly, Jets Dolphins and more. Jeff talks about betting too many games and how sometimes, it's the best way to figure out your best handicaps.
Duration: 00:54:30NFL 2025 Hindsight 20/20; post week 3
Sep 22, 2025Jeff had a nice week against the bookies playing 0-2 dogs versus 2-0 favorites. Ugly Betty met Game of Falcon and whooped up on a dirty bird. Jeff thinks the Eagles have a figure it out specialist and the Raiders and Texans make everything look hard.
Duration: 00:20:19NFL 2025 Week 3; Woodshed Rout
Sep 18, 2025Jeff is running solo this week with lots of trends and spots for some of the biggest games of the weekend. Mike calls in with picks for a couple of games as well. Deep dives into Baltimore, Cleveland, Tampa, Miami and some thoughts on the tush push. Mike and Jeff also find ways to compare common opponents that can give you a formula for finding value.
Duration: 00:49:28NFL 2025 Hindsight 20/20; post week 2
Sep 15, 2025Jeff had another winning week, but can't understand how based on how lousy his decision making was.
Duration: 00:23:35NFL 2025 Week2; Couch Scouting
Sep 11, 2025Mike and Jeff are making their picks for week two. Deep dives into Bears vs. Lions, Rams vs. Titans and the Florida fun trip continues with thoughts about the Dolphins and Bucs. The guys also discuss whether line moves based on the prior week need more consideration than they've been giving them. Jeff has another rant to make on poor game management that he is not qualified to make.
Duration: 01:04:54NFL 2025 Hindsight 20/20; post week 1
Sep 08, 2025Jeff is going over all the big games from the first weekend of the NFL season. He is owning up to where his bets went wrong, and what predictions came to fruition.
Duration: 00:17:58NFL 2025 Week 1; Craigs List Quarterback
Sep 04, 2025It is week one of the gambling season and Jeff has some trends for week one bettors that can help grab the early edge from the bookies. Mike then joins in to play a new investment game. Jeff closes things out with an Ugly Betty and Share of Square pick to get the bets rolling.
Duration: 00:53:19NFL 2025 NFC Preview; Boxed in by Ghosts
Aug 28, 2025Mike and Jeff are previewing the NFC. Every division, lots of trends and our favorite bets.
Duration: 01:01:58NFL 2025;AFC Preview; Mouse Trap Tua
Aug 21, 2025Mike and Jeff are previewing the AFC. Looking at division odds and season win totals to find the biggest discrepancies between their sure-to-go-wrong predictions and the betting market to find some bet-on-teams. Jeff discusses some early season strategies involving continuity and high octane offense. Best future bets included.
Duration: 00:57:17NFL 2025 The Flaw of Big Numbers
Aug 14, 2025Jeff is going into why refinement of the NFL point spread may not be as solid as previously thought. The betting pools and access to information have changed so much, that some reconsideration is required.
Duration: 00:29:15NFL 2025; Let's Bet That Parlay!
Aug 07, 2025Jeff is back to kick off the 2025 football gambling season. This one is all about parlays and NO he will not be discouraging you from going for the big score. The case is being made that parlays can be advantageous if common threads are found between games that make sense being grouped together.
Duration: 00:36:33NFL 2025 Hindsight 20/20; post Super Bowl
Feb 10, 2025Jeff was too scared to bet against the mysticism that is Patrick Mahomes. The game played out as Jeff saw it, but he still watched in disbelief as the Eagles routed the Chiefs. A good lesson on on when to press your bets and when to walk away, closes the season. Thank you all for listening!
Duration: 00:15:56NFL 2025 Super Bowl; Go Money
Feb 03, 2025One more game to chase all the season's bad results. Jeff and Mike are finding ways to bet the big game. From spreads to totals to props and same game parlays. Jeff has 3 factors that must be considered for any game within 3 points. He is also advocating for inversely corelated parlays as we tell ourselves a story for how the props will relate to game-flow.
Duration: 00:58:36NFL 2025 Hindsight 20/20; post Conference Championships
Jan 27, 2025Jeff is going over the two conference championship games and why the referees should not be blamed for Buffalo's loss. He talks about the ref talk diminishing the legendary dynasty that is taking the field each and every week. He then goes into Washington finally facing the fatigue that comes from endless must win and road games. Thoughts on the evolution of what it means to play good defense and how two veteran coordinators led their teams to victory Sunday.
Duration: 00:19:49NFL 2025 Conference Championships; Bologna February
Jan 23, 2025Mike and Jeff are picking the conference championship games against the spread. Jeff goes into a therapy session about his cliff dive into gambling melancholy and how it led him to his decision for the AFC championship. Mike has to play devil's advocate in the NFC game and ponders some atmospheric philosophy. Referees are part of the discussion as is some statistical analysis and other nuanced nonsense.
Duration: 00:45:33NFL 2025 Hindsight 20/20; post Divisional Round
Jan 20, 2025Jeff got crushed by mule field goal kickers and receivers without hands. It was financial ruin as missing out on half points led to the worst playoff round of betting Jeff has faced in two decades. The anger of losing is channeled into a rant against the leagues biased officiating when it comes to Patrick Mahomes.
Duration: 00:28:23NFL 2025 Divisional Round; Leave the One-Bar Helmets at Home
Jan 16, 2025Mike and Jeff are picking all four divisional playoff games against the spread. While taking turns picking their best bets, the other is forced to defend the other side. At the end of the day a handicap for all eight teams is provided so you can decide what sides are sharp and which ones are square. Jeff closes by explaining teaser protection and why seeing spreads of 9 and 9.5 are not so uncommon.
Duration: 00:51:06NFL 2025 Hindsight 20/20; post Wild Card Round
Jan 14, 2025The not so super, Super Wild Card weekend is in the books. Jeff is going over all of the games and where things went well for bettors and which teams fell short.
Duration: 00:27:43NFL 2025 Wildcard Weekend; Baker Believers
Jan 09, 2025Jeff and Mike are taking turns picking which playoff games they want to play. Each must defend the other side so nuance for each contest is argued. A great way to get opinions and handicaps for both sides of every game.
Duration: 00:46:52NFL 2025 Hindsight 20/20; post week 18
Jan 06, 2025It was a wild season finale for professional football and the betting markets. Jeff won despite overlooking the basics of starting quarterback play. He closes by discussing the idea of negatively correlated same game parlays.
Duration: 00:16:40NFL 2025 Week 18; Setting Up For Un-Success
Jan 02, 2025Jeff is flying solo this week and breaking down all 16 games for the regular season finale. Every playoff scenario is covered including which teams will be resting starters. A complete guide to everything you need to know before challenging the bookies!
Duration: 00:52:13NFL 2024 Hindsight 20/20; post week 17
Dec 30, 2024Jeff only saved his wallet by barely betting yesterday as favorites blew away the dogs making the value of points seem unimportant. Some questionable coaching practices made the end game of some thrillers comical and frustrating. Just another week of gambling bliss.
Duration: 00:11:17NFL 2024 Week 17; Smoke in the Dumpster
Dec 26, 2024Jeff is flying solo for this episode but is up to the challenge of going over the entire slate of Saturday, Sunday and Monday's games to give you all of the playoff scenarios for each game. Lots of focus on team motivation for the playoff bound and what might be encouraging bad teams to play hard. Ugly Betty isn't left out as Jeff loves a team that was terrible last week and wants them in his portfolio with the blue chips he is backing late in the year.
Duration: 00:46:55NFL 2024 Christmas Special; Lots of Angry Elves
Dec 24, 2024Jeff is flying solo on this and giving his thoughts on both Christmas Day games. The market is taking a stand on both games and Jeff is fading the moves in one game and following the tide in the other. Happy Holidays degenerates!
Duration: 00:15:53NFL 2024 Hindsight 20/20; post week 16
Dec 23, 2024Jeff talks about how much money he could have lost, being a positive from a week filled with losing picks. How's that for optimism? Jeff also questions if the NFL has created fatigue with too many games on too many days?
Duration: 00:14:23NFL 2024 Week 16; Miserable Soul Stealer
Dec 20, 2024Mike and Jeff have been mathematically eliminated from Super Contest cash, so this week is all across the betting board. Betting philosophies for the end of the season and how to navigate the schedule to account for playoff scenarios. In depth breakdowns of the Falcons move to Penix, why the Ravens are under-rated and how injury reports could be false flags late in the season. Jeff closes things out with an ultimate decision that forces him back into the mayonnaise-less Tennessee betting market.
Duration: 00:57:48NFL 2024 Hindsight 20/20; post week 15
Dec 16, 2024Jeff had the worst weekend betting of the season, yet it feels much like every other week. Football stinks.
Duration: 00:12:39NFL Week 15; Down in the Dumpster, Close to my Heart
Dec 12, 2024The guys are settling into a losing season in the super contest but finding ways to pick some winners for their wallets. Some thoughts on losing streaks for good teams and bounce back spots for the bad ones. Game picks for Bills vs. Lions, all the AFC North games in honor of Hard Knocks, plus; Jets vs. Jags, Patriots vs. Cardinals, Colts vs. Broncos. Jeff closes with some strategy for finding correlated parlays at the end of the season.
Duration: 01:00:05NFL 2024 Hindsight 20/20; post week 14
Dec 09, 2024Losing Stinks and the guys did plenty of it this weekend going 1-4 in the Super Contest. Time to own up to what went wrong.
Duration: 00:11:12NFL 2024 Week 14; My Ayahuasca Is Kicking Back In
Dec 05, 2024This one is jam packed full of game breakdowns as the guys are rich with narratives for the week 14 card. Ugly Betty follows Kirk Cousins to Minnesota. Anyone playing a Jersey team can be share-of-square. It's rah-rah time for the Norse course. The bonus categories have some keen handicaps that get Jeff and Mike looking to bet the week heavy.
Duration: 00:45:49NFL 2024 Hindsight 20/20; post week 13
Dec 02, 2024The guys had a third straight losing week in the super contest, while Jeff found himself betting way too many games. Some decisions were solid, while others left nothing but Eberflus like head shakes.
Duration: 00:16:12NFL 2024 Week 13; Good for Your Heart
Nov 29, 2024After back-to-back losing weeks in the Super Contest, Mike and Jeff are looking to get back on the winning track. Jeff doesn't think the Jets are quite as ugly as Mike makes them out to be and thinks that a once elite team better fits the bill. The guys are continuing to squarely bet the mile-high city and are backing Sam Darnold plus the hook once again. Jeff is making one last effort at a sandwich spot fade, while Mike is ready to Icky Shuffle past a rah-rah Tomlin spot.
Duration: 00:36:06NFL 2024 Thanksgiving Special; Goff Bean Casserole
Nov 27, 2024It's time to gobble 'till you wobble and settle in for a full slate of football for Thanksgiving. Jeff and Mike are breaking down all the Thursday games and the black Friday game. Full handicaps including point spreads and totals for each game and most importantly, the guys make their ultimate decision on the best slice of pie to close the holiday with.
Duration: 00:33:14NFL 2024 Hindsight 20/20; post week 12
Nov 25, 2024It was another losing week for the guys as they went 2-3 in the Super Contest. Jeff talks about the resolve bettors have to have to keep betting a team that destroys you one week. Changing the channel might change the result as the Vikings somehow lost a ten point lead in two minutes versus the Bears. The Lions keep running over underdog bettors, while the Cowboys found a way to beat not so clever Kliff Kingsbury. Finally, not even the cast of the Jersey Shore could get Tommy Cutlets into the cover column.
Duration: 00:14:28NFL 2024 Week 12; Confidence Is Killing My Bankroll
Nov 21, 2024It was a brutal week for Mike and Jeff in the Super Contest as the guys went 1-4. Jeff starts out with some revisionist history on how they easily could have put a 5-0 card together. He goes in depth about how look-ahead lines can reveal where the bookmakers are most desperate to give valuable numbers in order to draw two-way action. From there you need a strong stomach, because the the picks are all ugly. Sometimes the best bets are the hardest ones to make. Mike adds some great trends that back a lot of the picks for th...
Duration: 00:50:57NFL 2024 Hindsight 20/20; post week 11
Nov 18, 2024Week 11 was a bloodbath for Jeff and Mike. Bets were losing and the contest tanked, going 1-4. This is a quick one with not much to say other than got lots wrong.
Duration: 00:07:31NFL 2024 Week 11; That's What She Said
Nov 14, 2024Mike is back live and in person as the guys go through the week 11 slate of NFL point spreads. Lot's of contenders to choose from for ugly betty, but it's time for mayonnaise. The guys call dibs on fading the Bears for share-of-square. All three AFC North games are in contention, but one is Jeff's ultimate decision. Mike has a mile-high false finish and a prime-time fade in South Beach to close out the card for this week's Super Contest entry.
Duration: 00:58:51NFL 2024 Hindsight 20/20; post week 10
Nov 11, 2024Jeff goes on a bit of a diatribe about the Colts vs. Bills game. The guys went 3-2 in the Super Contest. Mike's math on the Bucs proofed true while his square share of the Bears was proven false. Mike had two sure fire winners... well losers, but they covered the spread so they are winners in our book. Bengals and Broncos... welcome to the LBC ( Lose But Cover) !
Duration: 00:24:00NFL 2024 Week 10; I want Parkman
Nov 08, 2024Jeff is taking two after a great conversation about half of the week's games, was lost to to audio stupidity. Mike had some great points and Jeff is going to attempt to present them in a mixed version of each's handicap. Good trends and some procedural tips on finding value spots make their way.
Duration: 00:38:48NFL 2024 Hindsight 20.20; post week 9
Nov 04, 2024Jeff and Mike had a losing week in the Super Contest going 2-3. Jeff tries to sell that they lost the Denver game the way he thought they would lose. Ugly Betty isn't as bad as the Cowboys, while square for the Commanders works like a charm. The Hawks cash for Jeff, but lose in the contest. Sam Darnold tries to revert to his old ways, but the Vikings defense was too good not to cover.
Duration: 00:13:32NFL 2024 Week 9; Eggs In My Head
Oct 30, 2024After another winning week the guys are in sync for their Super Contest picks. Jeff has a great trend that he can't sight his source on (purposeful mis-spelling) and a bonus play for Dougie's return to the city of brotherly love. Mike has let his disgust with the Jets bleed into his picks, while refusing to ponder any Mayonnaise laden traps.
Duration: 00:58:38NFL 2024 Hindsight 20/20; post week 8
Oct 28, 2024Mike and Jeff had another winning week going 3-1 in the Super Contest. The Browns and Lions went according to plan, while Jeff lost some money backing the Chiefs. Fortunately, he was open to Mike's Betty pick, Las Vegas. Miami played with the enthusiasm they used to with Tua and choked the game off like they used to as well.
Duration: 00:17:24NFL 2024 Week 8; QBB Munchkin Bounce... Allegedly
Oct 24, 2024Muppets, crab legs and some good old fashioned liable. The picks are all over the place this week, but the guys have some good nuanced debates about multiple games. Mike likes the Raiders versus the Chiefs and the G-men disrupting Russell Wilson's moon ball. Jeff is is all about Jameis Winston, who he thinks qualifies for twelve different categories. It gets heated when it comes to Tua, but agreeably square with the Lions.
Duration: 00:56:52NFL 2024 Hindsight 20/20; post week 7
Oct 21, 2024Jeff is trying to figure out what keeps possessing him to bet the Carolina Panthers. Antonio Pierce is sporting some hardware for handicapping heroism, while the Chiefs are constantly finding a new way to be the best. Doug tried to screw things up for Jacksonville but managed to catch the cover. The Seahawks caught Atlanta flat, while Mike McDaniel ran out of plays versus Gus Bradley and the Colts. The guys went 3-1 in the Super Contest and are looking for a monster week with Baltimore.
Duration: 00:17:18NFL 2024 Week 7; Fold and Capitulate
Oct 17, 2024This one is loaded with picks and trends. It is also loaded with technical difficulties as Jeff, who is somewhat of a luddite, encountered every computer problem imaginable. Some sections are edited in choppy fashion, but the gambling info is good and plentiful.
Duration: 00:45:50NFL 2024 Hindsight 20/20; post week 6
Oct 14, 2024Jeff talks about leaning too far into numbers and the importance of being able to verbalize a good handicap. The guys went 3-1 in the Super Contest helping out the week.
Duration: 00:16:42NFL 2024 Week 6; Fury O'Connell
Oct 10, 2024Mike and Jeff are coming out of hurricane mode and trying to rebound from the disaster that was last week's Super Contest. Apparently they learned nothing as this week's card includes the horrible Browns, the stomach churning Jets and the rah-rah Steelers. As cool as the name is, the play is to fade Spencer Rattler and Mike can't resist playing his favorite London team.
Duration: 00:46:39NFL 2024 Hindsight 20/20; post week 5
Oct 08, 2024Jeff talks about the wild week of betting where dead bets found life and live bets found death within a twenty minute time span. In other words, a typical Sunday. The super contest did not fair so well as the guys went 1-3-1 for their worst weekend of the year.
Duration: 00:11:57NFL Week 5; Which One Is More Painful?
Oct 02, 2024Mike and Jeff are compromising as neither one likes the other's picks. Better than agreeing on bets, that would be a sure fire disaster. Jeff is backing Aaron Rodgers versus the media and going dumpster diving with Cleveland. Mike sees Dougy Pederson and Sunshine circling the wagons. The consensus is Denver being square enough to play and Mike Tomlin being in full rah-rah mode.
Duration: 00:44:35NFL 2024 Hindsight 20/20; post week4
Sep 30, 2024It was a 3-2 week for the guys in the Super Contest. Jeff believes that young teams winning early might be evaluated incorrectly by contrary bettors. Ugly Betty remains undefeated as the Jaguars lose but cover versus the Texans. Al Michaels can jinx a kicker like nobody's business. Josh Allen remains the best losing quarterback in the NFL and Jeff continues to be baffled by Sam Darnold and all of the winning he's doing.
Duration: 00:14:06College Football Special; Sabin's Stargate
Sep 26, 2024Jeff is joined by Duce from the Happy Hour Podcast with Ariel and Duce to talk betting some college football. Duce gives Jeff his picks on which student athletes are worth the investment. The guys talk NIL, Primetime recruiting and the playoff expansion. Warning: Lot's of F-bombs in this one.
Duration: 01:01:30NFL 2024 Week 4; Tomlin Blah-Blah
Sep 25, 2024Mike and Jeff are coming off of a 4-1 week in the Super Contest and both are flush with cash from a great weekend of straight bets. Nothing else to do now, but give it all back to the bookies! Before that, though, the guys will play with confidence as there is an obvious ugly Betty that Jeff hates so much, he feels obligated to bet them. Share of square has Mike backing a QB he thought was divorced from his memory. Norse Course goes through Pittsburgh unless the Tomlin whisperer has something to say about it. The Cowboys a...
Duration: 00:51:20NFL 2024 Hindsight 20/20; post week 3
Sep 23, 2024Jeff and Mike went 3-1 in the Super Contest on Sunday. Jeff talks about not betting a game being his best bet of the week, even though it was one of his best betting days in years!
Duration: 00:18:00NFL 2024 Week 3; Mayonnaise Cologne and Underhand Passes
Sep 19, 2024After a 2-3 week Mike and Jeff are at .500 in the Super Contest. It's time to get on a roll and this week the guys had an easier time coming to an agreement on picks. What could possibly go wrong other than everything!
Duration: 00:57:52NFL 2024 Hindsight 20/20; post week 2
Sep 16, 2024Jeff and Mike went 2-2 in the Super Contest this week, but Jeff feels they left a winner on the cutting room floor. Sometimes the categories blur the line between a fun story and a solid handicap. While blitzing the media and courting ugly Betty worked out, the trap game was a bad idea and the Norse course strayed off the mark.
Duration: 00:16:02NFL 2024 Week 2; Ranting and Rambling
Sep 11, 2024It's week 2 and after a 3-2 opening week in the Super Contest, Mike and Jeff are ready to keep the winning picks rolling. The problem is, they agree on absolutely nothing. This makes for a great nuanced discussion/argument for both sides of multiple games. Eventually the guys amicably settle on a five game card.
Duration: 00:59:43NFL 2024 Hindsight 20/20; post week 1
Sep 09, 2024Week 1 is in the books and the guys had a winning week in the Super Contest. Jeff is breaking down where Mike and him had things right and a few games where the handicaps completely missed the mark.
Duration: 00:15:07NFL 2024 Week 1; Why am I Pushing a Broom?
Sep 05, 2024The regular season is here! Time for Super Contest Picks. Mike and Jeff are loaded with categories for week one, including a consensus on Ugly Betty and multiple ways to get after New Jersey football. Mike isn't sure he can bring sexy back with his share-of-square, but Jeff is confident he has an exclusive fade against the Browns.
Duration: 00:58:24NFL 2024 Gambling Theory; Higher Education is Stupid
Aug 29, 2024Mike has come up with his ten commandments for betting the NFL. Jeff interjects some theories of his own as the guys offer some simple strategies for gambling. You don't need to be a disciple to gain some knowledge that will make you a better handicapper.
Duration: 00:55:38NFL 2024 NFC Preview; It's a Bear Tax
Aug 22, 2024Mike and Jeff are deep diving the NFC. Jeff is fading the Hard Knocks hype following Chicago, while Mike is trying to figure out why their is so much love for the dirty birds in ATL. Bet on teams are in supply with the guys looking at the bottom tier teams as having the good old fashion lose but cover aspect to them.
Duration: 01:00:11NFL 2024 AFC Preview; They Do This To Me Every Year
Aug 15, 2024Mike and Jeff are breaking down the AFC. What teams are bet-on teams and which ones are fade city. Jeff uses Super Bowl odds to create a market based power ratings list of all 32 teams. The guys each have a futures bet for division winners and break down how to spot value when odds get skewed towards one perennial favorite.
Duration: 00:57:16NFL 2024 Super Contest Strategy; Radio, Tape and Newspaper
Aug 08, 2024Mike and Jeff are discussing Super Contest strategy, where players must pick 5 games, against the spread, every week of the season. To add some fun to the gamble, the guys have decided to choose categories, based on a lifetime of betting theories they have concocted over the years. Some are sharp, some are square, some are outright dumb. Enjoy!
Duration: 00:59:59NFL 2024 QB Preview; A Tenuous Grip On Their Team
Aug 01, 2024Mike and Jeff are back to rank and grade all 32 starting quarterbacks for the upcoming NFL season. Jeff believes that if you are able to properly evaluate the worth of QB's, you can handicap pro football. Get the quarterback right and get less bets wrong.
Duration: 00:57:46A History of the Point Spread; Episode 1: Charles McNeil
Jul 22, 2024Jeff explores the legacy of Charles K. McNeil who is credited with inventing the point spread. The episode also goes into the early turf clubs that served as the first betting parlors as well as the first line services that provided consensus odds and game information to bookies and bettors across the country.
Duration: 00:11:26A History of the Point Spread; Episode 2: Bob Martin
Jul 22, 2024Jeff explores the legacy of Bob Martin, considered the best oddsmaker of all time. Long before the internet and computer models, Bob Martin set the point spreads in Las Vegas that every bookmaker would seek out before releasing their own.
Duration: 00:10:49A History of the Point Spread; Episode 3: Jimmy "the Greek" Snyder
Jul 22, 2024Jeff explores the legacy of Jimmy "the Greek" who became the most well known sports handicapper in the country. His notoriety led him to a spot on the NFL Today pre-game show, decades before networks and sports channels ever thought about talking point spreads as part of game analysis.
Duration: 00:09:31A History of the Point Spread; Episode 4: Frank "Lefty" Rosenthal
Jul 22, 2024Jeff talks about the legacy of "Lefty" Rosenthal. The U.S. government implemented numerous tactics to stop organized crime. Many of which aimed at gambling. In the 1970's when an excessive tax on sports betting in Las Vegas was greatly reduced, Lefty was at the forefront of bringing the sportsbooks inside the casinos and creating a gambling haven for bettors at the infamous Stardust Casino.
Duration: 00:15:24A History of the Point Spread; Episode 5: Scotty Schettler
Jul 22, 2024Jeff is talking about the legacy of Scotty Schettler, who oversaw the sportsbook at the Stardust in the 1980's and introduced the infamous lottery. The line at the Stardust was the most sought after opening number and led to bettors doing whatever they could to get first crack at the purest point spreads in the desert.
Duration: 00:16:27A History of the Point Spread; Episode 6: Roxy Roxborough
Jul 22, 2024Jeff explores the legacy of Roxy Roxborough, a highly successful bettor who provided information services to various Las Vegas sportsbooks. Roxborough was a pioneer in using computer models to fine tune point spreads and was at the forefront for today's application of analytics.
Duration: 00:08:09A History of the Point Spread; Episode 7: Billy Walters
Jul 22, 2024Jeff talks about the legacy of Billy Walters who is considered amongst many prevalent handicappers as the best sports bettor of all time. The episode goes into how professionals gather unique information and manipulate lines to get the best value on every point spread they bet.
Duration: 00:11:52A History of the Point Spread; Episode 8: Jimmy Vaccaro
Jul 22, 2024Jeff talks about the legacy of Jimmy Vaccaro. Vaccaro has been around the evolution of the point spread and derivative betting throughout his career. He has mentored and advised some of the great bookmakers of the industry today and came up under the tutelage of many legends that preceded him.
Duration: 00:14:08A History of the Point Spread; Episode 9: Annie Antigua
Jul 22, 2024Jeff is talking about the move offshore and the revolution created by online sportsbooks. The episode goes into the the legislation that aimed to stop the growth of sports betting in the 1990's and early 2000's and the pioneers who found a way to expand the outs for those willing to seek the best point spread digitally.
Duration: 00:13:51A History of the Point Spread; Episode 10: Steve Fezzik
Jul 22, 2024Jeff is talking about the legacy of sports bettor Steve Fezzik who is the only two time winner of the Westgate Super Contest. When it comes to handicapping contests that judge bettors ability to navigate the NFL point spread, many consider the super contest format one of the most demanding tests. The episode goes into tout services and the emergence of media focus on point spreads.
Duration: 00:11:49Wrestle Mania XL; Gamblin' on Wrastlin'
Mar 31, 2024Jeff is joined by Duce, from The Happy Hour Podcast with Ariel and Duce, to talk betting on Wrestle Mania XL. Jeff is heeling off while Duce defends the mama Rhodes family. Duce tries to talk Jeff off of the Sami Zayn-bad-bet ledge, while making ladder match predictions and telling you where to get the best value on the Rollins/Lynch family, book and surgery betting strategy. Jeff breaks down some basic gambling theory that can be applied to your sports entertainment weekend.
Duration: 01:02:03NFL 2024 Hindsight 20/20; post Super Bowl
Feb 12, 2024Mike and Jeff made some money betting the Superbowl and also enjoyed some old man nostalgia that came with the television production.
Duration: 00:32:30NFL 2024 The Big Game; Not Bet?...Not Likely
Jan 31, 2024Full Gambling preview in 30 minutes. Dominoes has nothing on us! Mike and Jeff go through all aspects of betting strategy for the Super Bowl. Spread picks, totals, derivatives, teasers and props included.
Duration: 00:30:31NFL 2024 Hindsight 20/20; post Conference Championships
Jan 29, 2024Jeff is recapping the Conference Championship games, talking Chiefs dominance, Baltimore's no show, Detroit's collapse and the 49ers finding another way to win behind the elusive running Brock Purdy.
Duration: 00:16:20NFL 2024 Conference Championships; The Swifties Are Gonna Revolt
Jan 24, 2024Mike takes over hosting duties as Jeff is under the weather and it is straight to business. This is a meat and potatoes preview with lots of info on both the NFC and AFC title games.
Duration: 00:44:04NFL 2024 Hindsight 2020; post Divisional Round
Jan 22, 2024Jeff is breaking down the four divisional games from the weekend and how the fundamental questions heading into the games, determined the outcome. While he feels for Bills fans, demons are hard to overcome. Lamar erases all doubt about how dominant him and the Ravens are. Dan Campbell trusts his guys to win while Kyle Shanahan sees things differently.
Duration: 00:20:29NFL 2024 Divisional Round; A Fan of Hypothermia
Jan 18, 2024After Mike dominated the first round of the playoff game, Jeff is faking it until he makes it, with bold confidence betting some big favorites. Scared money don't make money. Jeff also explains teaser protection and the value of Wong teasers. Mike has some player props and derivatives for some games where he doesn't want to bet the side, but is feening for some action.
Duration: 00:52:31NFL 2024 Hindsight 20/20; post Wildcard Round
Jan 16, 2024Jeff goes over all of the action from Super Wild Card Weekend including meltdowns in Dallas and pathetic efforts from Philadelphia. Teams with foundation and execution ruled the day as the contenders for the divisional round separated from the frauds.
Duration: 00:23:13NFL 2024 Wildcard Round; Time to Play the Game
Jan 11, 2024Mike and Jeff discuss bankroll management heading into the playoffs. What to do if you've gone broke and what to do if you are flush with cash. Then it's time for Jeff's playoff game. Find a friend and play at home! All six wildcard games are broken down along with some thought on who can make playoff runs.
Duration: 01:05:51NFL 2024 Hindsight 20/20; post week 18
Jan 08, 2024Mike made the cash in his individual Super Contest! Congratulations.
Duration: 00:14:34NFL 2024 Week 18; Who Wins in the Not Good Bowl
Jan 04, 2024Many think the final week of the season is the hardest week to bet. Mike and Jeff are delving into week 18 specific strategies for how to attack the market. All of the playoff scenarios, all of the resting players and all of the checked out teams making tee times are discussed. Mike also gives his thoughts on the final week of his super contest entry that is hovering around a nice cash payout.
Duration: 01:05:11NFL 2024 Hindsight 20/20; post week 17
Jan 01, 2024Mike and Jeff are off back-to back winning weeks heading into the final week of the regular season. While the entry is far from the cash, the current 57% win rate is worth playing out. Jeff talks about evaluating your edge percentage to determine whether or not a bet is worth increasing. Spoiler Alert! He doesn't know.
Duration: 00:22:09NFL 2023 Week 17; Circle the Drain
Dec 28, 2023Mike and Jeff are coming off of their best week in the Super Contest at 4-0-1. Mike stole all the thunder, however, by going 5-0 and printing money with his cash bets. The guys have to sift through the deep tracks for picks as their is staunch disagreement on multiple categories. The card is filled with an ugly betty, a wagon circle, a share-of-square and two wildcards from the sunshine state. Happy New Year!
Duration: 01:01:11NFL 2023 Hindsight 20/20; post week 14
Dec 26, 2023The week went well, as the guys best Super Contest entry of the year went 4-0-1 and was not even the highlight, as Mike ventures closer to the money in his individual entry. Jeff got back on the winning side of the ledger, but fear kept him off winners that should have been in his portfolio.
Duration: 00:19:05NFL 2023 Week 16; It's Christmas, Rudolph Might Play Well
Dec 21, 2023Jeff opens with an apology for a drunken drone version of last week's hindsight 20/20. To make up for it, he offers invaluable information on how not to place losing bets, in four specific situations. No winners here folks, only not losers... sometimes. This conversation has a lot of insight into betting systems and power ratings. Mike then talks about his hot run in the Super Contest. If you are interested in contest play, Mike dives into some good strategy for playing closing line value (CLV). And of course picks! Don't like them, fade them, but the guys have some...
Duration: 01:32:34NCAA Playoff Football; Jobbing out to Georgia
Dec 18, 2023Jeff his itching to bet some student athlete football this holiday season, so is turning to his resident expert, Duce, from The Happy Hour Podcast with Ariel and Duce. The picks and the expletives are flying as Jeff and Duce discuss the big playoff games, FSU, CM Punk and the Pin Stripe Bowl. Duce closes the show with a plethora of picks as he plays Jeff's bowl category game.
Duration: 01:19:11NFL 2023 Hindsight 20/20; post week 15
Dec 17, 2023Things continue to go poorly as Jeff reverts back to the same losing investment strategies that have cost him money year after year. This is a short and to the point review of a bunch of to be expected, lousy picks.
Duration: 00:08:05NFL 2023 Week 15; Toboggan Debacle
Dec 13, 2023Mike and Jeff are back to basics putting together five games for their NFL Super Contest entry. Last week was a soul crushing 1-3-1 that all but eliminated them from squid game. Jeff closes by asking Mike how he bets with such discipline; a trait that escapes Jeff multiple times per year.
Duration: 01:02:19NFL 2023 Hindsight 20/20; post week 14
Dec 11, 2023It's time for the annual, Jeff suffers financial ruin and gives up on life because the gambling god's have decided to smite him with guaranteed losers if he shows an ounce of confidence placing his bets, show. Enjoy!
Duration: 00:19:31