The Breakdown

This Friday Five breaks down a pivotal Fed meeting marked by rare open dissent that signals a splintered FOMC and a far more politicized, harder-to-read monetary path into 2026, including what the new liquidity program really means for markets. The episode then turns to Washington, where the crypto market structure bill remains stuck in a late-year quagmire over DeFi AML rules and stablecoin yield, before digging into why markets appear finished with Bitcoin treasury companies after a high-profile debut flopped. It closes with a sober trimming of year-end Bitcoin bull cases and the sentencing of Do Kwon, a moment that...

Today’s episode breaks down one of the most contentious FOMC meetings in nearly a decade. A deeply divided Fed delivered a rate cut that may also mark the end of the cutting cycle, with multiple dissents on both the dovish and hawkish sides and an unusually fractured dot plot. The conversation explores what the dissents reveal about competing inflation and labor-market risks, why Powell says the Fed is effectively flying blind without fresh BLS data, and how alternative data is shaping the debate. It also examines the quiet but significant shift in balance-sheet policy, as the Fed ends QT...

Today’s episode breaks down the rough NYSE debut of 21 Capital, whose immediate drop suggests markets are no longer willing to award premiums to companies whose only model is selling shares to buy more Bitcoin. The discussion examines why treasury firms are being valued at 1x, what 21’s attempt to build real Bitcoin-based businesses signals about the future of the category, and how shifting analyst frameworks—from Standard Chartered’s recalibration to institutional-flow–driven models—reflect a maturing market that now demands execution, not narrative.

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Today’s episode examines Washington’s increasingly public admission that the market-structure bill is stuck, with key senators signaling that negotiations have become frustrating and unlikely to resolve this year. From there the focus turns to MicroStrategy’s return to large-scale Bitcoin purchases, the funding mechanics behind it, and the growing debate over whether the company is executing long-term strategy or edging into risk.

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A crypto regulatory update looking at why the long-promised market structure bill is likely slipping into next year as negotiators get bogged down in stablecoin yield, conflict-of-interest language, and the thorny problem of DeFi. The episode also covers the SEC’s increasingly sharp divide with TradFi over tokenization rules and a surprising bit of good news from the CFTC on approved spot markets, setting the stage for a pivotal regulatory year ahead. Headlines at the end.

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This Friday 5 runs through a week defined by Larry Fink’s renewed tokenization push, MicroStrategy’s move to eliminate default risk, major wealth platforms finally opening their doors to Bitcoin, and a macro backdrop where liquidity interventions are starting to matter again. It all culminates in a price week that didn’t resolve the bear case but made the conversation far more interesting, with volatility returning even if direction hasn’t. Headlines include: BlackRock’s policy-facing tokenization thesis, MicroStrategy’s $1.4B buffer, Vanguard and Bank of America shifting access, and the Fed’s early signals on easing.

Larry Fink and Brian Armstrong hit the DealBook Summit with a message that couldn’t be clearer: crypto is now a mainstream financial conversation, not a curiosity. Their joint interview laid out Bitcoin’s purpose, tokenization’s inevitability, and why banks racing toward stablecoins signal a structural shift—not a passing cycle. Plus: MicroStrategy fights for MSCI inclusion, Japan prepares a major crypto-tax cut, and new data shows Bitcoin settling trillions as it cements itself as global financial plumbing. One sentence on the headlines at the end.

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Larry Fink makes his most explicit case yet that tokenization is entering its internet-1996 moment, and the rest of Wall Street is suddenly lining up behind him. Today’s episode looks at why this shift matters, how macro liquidity and Fed policy are shaping Bitcoin’s rebound, and why regulators and major exchanges are treating tokenized assets as the next frontier of financial infrastructure.

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Today’s episode looks at how the traditional financial and policy apparatus around Bitcoin and crypto is shifting from quiet hostility to reluctant accommodation, and what that means for market psychology at this stage of the drawdown. From MicroStrategy building a $1.44B cash buffer to avoid selling BTC, to Kalshi’s move toward on-chain tokenization, to Congress’ blistering report on Operation Chokepoint 2.0 and the about-face from Vanguard and Bank of America on Bitcoin access, the signs of a changing tide are everywhere.

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November just logged Bitcoin’s ugliest performance since 2018, with a seasonally strong month instead turning into a mini crypto winter driven by thin liquidity, excess leverage, and global macro jitters from Japan to the Fed. This episode digs into what really caused the drawdown, whether the pain is flushing out the froth ahead of a healthier 2026, and how to think about the latest macro correlations—plus a fresh round of Tether FUD, new clarity from MicroStrategy on what would actually make them sell, and a mysterious Bitcoin move from SpaceX.

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Bitcoin is climbing back from Friday’s drop, but the bounce looks weak and uncertain. Liquidity is shallow, flows are scattered, and the futures market just saw one of its sharpest resets of the cycle. Analysts say consolidation is more likely than a clean reversal, even as rate-cut odds rise and long-term holders accumulate. Institutional sentiment is mixed, CME derivatives are hitting records, and ETF flows remain soft, leaving a market that feels steadier than last week but far from confident the bottom is truly in.

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Bitcoin steadied after a brutal week that saw cascading liquidations, battered ETFs, and growing questions about whether the drawdown was macro-driven rather than crypto-specific. Analysts are watching for early bottom signals as funding rates flip negative, long-term buyers nibble, and headline flows finally stabilize. But the bigger story is the macro backdrop: AI stocks sliding, liquidity tightening, Fed speakers clashing, and the White House sending Scott Besson on another weekend media blitz—capped off by his appearance at the PUBKey DC opening. With recession debates heating up, fiscal impulses looming, and rate-cut odds abruptly snapping back, today’s episode dive...

NLW and Scott Melker cover why this may be the first baby bear market in our new tradfi integrated paradigm.

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The latest Fed minutes show a deeply divided committee but a clear signal: no December rate cut is coming. Markets reacted fast, sending Bitcoin tumbling to new lows as leveraged traders piled in and ETF investors pulled out. NLW unpacks what the minutes reveal about the economy, why rate expectations are shifting, and how this is shaping crypto’s end-of-year outlook—including Kraken’s IPO filing and a major Bitcoin bet from Abu Dhabi.

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The latest Fed minutes show a deeply divided committee but a clear signal: no December rate cut is coming. Markets reacted fast, sending Bitcoin tumbling to new lows as leveraged traders piled in and ETF investors pulled out. NLW unpacks what the minutes reveal about the economy, why rate expectations are shifting, and how this is shaping crypto’s end-of-year outlook—including Kraken’s IPO filing and a major Bitcoin bet from Abu Dhabi.

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Bitcoin’s brutal drawdown has traders asking whether the market finally found its bottom, with price testing $90K multiple times, sentiment crushed into extreme fear, ETF flows bleeding out, futures slipping into backwardation, and institutions stepping back; in today’s episode NLW breaks down the case for and against a bottom through technicals, macro shifts, leveraged positioning, while also covering Kraken’s $800M fundraise with Citadel involvement, Tether’s strategic investment in Ledn, new OCC guidance allowing banks to hold crypto for gas fees, and the first slate of Solana ETFs launching into choppy markets.

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A look at why the long-awaited return of ICOs to the US started with a whimper, not a bang. The debut sale on Coinbase’s new platform underperformed expectations, raising questions about demand for new L1s, tokenomics, and whether retail ever really came back this cycle. Plus, microstrategy’s latest massive Bitcoin buy, trouble in its preferred stock, CBOE’s move into regulated perps, and a grim turn for BTC price action.

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The crypto market is facing a renewed period of intense fear as Bitcoin turned red on the year, briefly dropping below $93,000 amid a 10% weekly drawdown and the Fear & Greed Index hitting extreme lows. NLW explores whether this 25% correction marks the start of a traditional bear market or is simply Bitcoin transitioning into a more institutional asset with a new, potentially less cyclical return profile, noting the strange dissonance where positive structural news—like the Czech Central Bank acquiring BTC and the Harvard Endowment significantly increasing its position—fails to lift the price. The episode also analyzes the immediate impact of f...

Extreme fear grips the market and Bitcoin dips into the mid-$90Ks, but the real story is everything happening underneath the sell-off. This Friday 5 breaks down the heavy wallet distribution, the liquidation wave, and why short-term price pain contrasts so sharply with long-term structural progress — from new SEC/CFTC clarity efforts to bipartisan draft legislation, from Coinbase’s launchpad experiment to JPMorgan’s deposit token push. A clear look at the week when crypto quietly advanced despite the charts.

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NLW looks at what the end of the 43-day government shutdown means for crypto, from the CFTC finally moving toward a confirmed chair and opening the door to regulated spot markets, to the SEC racing to revive its tokenization and ETF agenda. He breaks down how Congress is picking up the stalled market-structure bill, what renewed Treasury spending means for liquidity, and why macro uncertainty is rising even as Washington gets back to work.

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China is accusing the US of hacking a major Bitcoin mining pool in 2020 and stealing 127,000 BTC—now worth more than $13 billion. NLW breaks down the origins of the Labuyan hack, why the coins later appeared in DOJ-linked wallets, the allegations surrounding Chinese billionaire Chen Ji, and what this fight reveals about Bitcoin’s role in rising US–China tensions. Plus, a quick look at Coinbase’s move to revive US token sales.

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After one of Bitcoin’s sharpest sell-offs of the cycle, sentiment across crypto turned fearful as whales dumped billions and ETFs saw record outflows. But a weekend surge of political and fiscal news — from Trump’s proposed $2,000 “tariff dividend” to 50-year mortgages and a government-reopening deal — reignited markets and sent Bitcoin rebounding. NLW breaks down what’s driving the volatility, how institutional analysts are recalibrating their price targets, and why macro liquidity may still be the ultimate bull case.

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On this Halloween Friday Five, NLW and Scott Melker break down a wild week in macro and crypto. The Fed’s latest meeting left markets confused about future rate cuts, while Wall Street and legacy payment giants doubled down on digital assets. ICE partners with Polymarket to explore tokenized collateral, Mastercard eyes a $2B crypto acquisition, and even Western Union is launching its own stablecoin. Plus, Solana ETFs crush expectations, and what this cycle’s institutional dominance means for the future of crypto markets.

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Markets got the rate cut they expected — but not the clarity they wanted. Fed Chair Jerome Powell stunned investors by signaling that December’s cut is “far from a foregone conclusion,” while also announcing an end to quantitative tightening. With two dissents on the committee and growing confusion over data gaps from the government shutdown, Powell’s cautious tone left markets guessing. Stocks whipsawed, Bitcoin fell, and questions mounted about liquidity risk and the so-called “AI bubble.” Today on The Breakdown, NLW unpacks a Fed day that left everyone wondering what comes next.

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Polymarket is preparing to relaunch in the U.S. after years in regulatory exile, now armed with a CFTC-compliant license and a $9B valuation. The move signals a new era for prediction markets—blurring the line between crypto, sports betting, and social platforms. Plus: Visa’s stablecoin expansion, Western Union’s on-chain pivot, and BlackRock’s Larry Fink calls Bitcoin an “asset of fear.”

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Standard Chartered’s Jeff Kendrick says if this week goes well, Bitcoin may never drop below $100,000 again. NLW breaks down the key macro catalysts — a dovish Fed, a potential U.S.–China trade thaw, and tech earnings from Microsoft, Meta, Google, Apple, and Amazon — that could make this the decisive week for markets. Plus, updates on MicroStrategy’s credit downgrade, new Solana and Litecoin ETFs, and Coinbase’s major partnerships with Apollo and Citi.

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Bitcoin and risk assets jumped as the U.S. and China appeared to reach a framework agreement that takes 100% tariffs and rare earth restrictions off the table. NLW breaks down what the potential trade deal means for markets, why optimism is back, and how JPMorgan’s move to accept Bitcoin and Ethereum as loan collateral signals a major shift in traditional finance’s relationship with crypto. Plus, new controversy over Binance’s lobbying spend and Trump’s CFTC pick.

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NLW and Scott Melker chop up another week, with a big discussion of the controversial CZ pardon.

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A tense closed-door meeting between Senate Democrats and crypto executives erupted into frustration and accusations after the leak of a draft market structure proposal seen as a de facto DeFi ban. NLW breaks down what went wrong in the meeting, why trust between Democrats and the crypto industry is fraying, and how the stalled bill could slip past year-end. Plus, new GOP efforts to modernize financial crime reporting laws, the banking lobby’s fight against stablecoin interest, and Standard Chartered’s bearish short-term Bitcoin call.

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Gold’s record-breaking rally just snapped with its biggest one-day drop in over a decade, and now traders are asking whether the long-anticipated rotation from gold into Bitcoin has begun. In today’s episode, NLW breaks down what caused gold’s blow-off top, why even small capital shifts from the $20 trillion gold market could send Bitcoin soaring, and how new Fed policy, Tether’s explosive growth, and whale flows into ETFs are reshaping the balance between crypto and traditional finance.

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A massive AWS outage took down huge portions of the internet this week, and crypto wasn’t spared — Coinbase’s Base network went offline, MetaMask users saw zero balances, and much of the industry’s infrastructure stumbled. On today’s Breakdown, NLW explores what the event revealed about crypto’s dependence on centralized services, why Bitcoin and Ethereum’s uptime tell a different story, and how it’s fueling renewed debate about decentralization just as regulators and institutions weigh the next phase of the market.

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After a brutal flash crash and a week of weak trading, many in the crypto world are asking if the cycle is done. Bitcoin has held above $100K, but altcoins have been crushed, sentiment has cratered, and major voices like Chris Burniske and Ansem are turning bearish. Still, some analysts think we’re just seeing the most hated rally in history. Plus: Stripe’s $5B Tempo blockchain raises big questions about the future of institutional crypto—and China clamps down on tech giants issuing stablecoins while Japan’s banks push forward.

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From dustups with Binance to Larry Fink's tokenization call, NLW and Scott Melker break down the stories that shaped the crypto week.

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BlackRock CEO Larry Fink says the tokenization of all assets has begun—from real estate to ETFs—and calls on Washington to accelerate digital asset regulation. We break down what this means for markets, crypto, and the future of finance, plus the DOJ’s record $14B Bitcoin seizure and Jerome Powell hinting that quantitative tightening may soon end.

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Markets melted down this weekend after Trump’s surprise tariff announcement triggered the largest crypto liquidation in history. Stocks plunged, altcoins went to zero, and suspicions of insider trading swirled — but by Monday, the “bear market” was already over. NLW breaks down what really happened, who might have caused it, and why this flash crash could reshape crypto market structure.

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NLW and Scott Melker count down the five most important stories in the crypto week.

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Bitcoin’s October rally isn’t just another crypto surge — it’s part of what JPMorgan calls the Debasement Trade. As gold spikes and the dollar weakens, major banks and economists are finally voicing fears long held by Bitcoiners: runaway deficits, fading Fed independence, and a loss of faith in fiat currencies. Today NLW unpacks why Wall Street is suddenly embracing Bitcoin as a hedge against currency decay, how Japan’s yield crisis and global debt pressures fit in, and what the IMF’s latest warnings mean for the next phase of this trade.

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The parent company of the New York Stock Exchange just made a $2 billion investment in Polymarket, valuing the prediction-market platform at $9 billion and signaling a huge shift toward crypto-native financial infrastructure. NLW breaks down what the deal means for institutional adoption, how it compares to ICE’s previous crypto efforts, and why this could mark a new phase for decentralized finance. Plus: Bitcoin’s brief pullback, S&P Global’s new crypto index, BNY Mellon’s tokenized deposits, and Christine Lagarde’s latest anti-Bitcoin comments.

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Galaxy Digital just launched Galaxy One — a platform merging crypto, stocks, and yield accounts into a single financial hub. Coinbase is pursuing a banking charter. Stripe and stablecoin issuers are driving a yield war that could upend global banking profits. Standard Chartered warns of $1T in emerging-market capital flight to stablecoins. From TradFi’s defensive moves to FinTech’s stablecoin play, today’s Breakdown explores how the financial system’s borders are dissolving before our eyes.

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Bitcoin hit a new all-time high over the weekend, surging past $125,000 and capping its strongest week since May. Analysts point to ETF inflows, a weakening dollar, and broad asset rotation as drivers behind the move — while skeptics warn of monetary panic and late-cycle exuberance. In today’s episode, NLW explores whether this is a true macro melt-up, what it means for institutional adoption, and how traditional portfolios are evolving as hard assets take center stage.

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On today’s Breakdown, NLW kicks off the first Friday Five of October with Bitcoin’s soaring price action. From October’s uncanny seasonality and ETF inflow momentum to government shutdown delays and Citi and JPMorgan’s bold predictions, the conversation explores why markets seem determined to shrug off risk. NLW also covers the potential regulatory fallout of a prolonged shutdown, new SEC-CFTC collaboration, Kraken’s $20B raise, and Stripe’s stablecoin play. Plus, the week’s strangest culture clash story—Netflix cancellations over Elon Musk tweets.

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October has a reputation as Bitcoin’s strongest month, and so far 2025 is no exception. After a choppy September, BTC is already pushing back toward new all-time highs, shrugging off a government shutdown and showing signs of strong demand. Analysts are debating whether this is the setup for another monster Q4, with some even eyeing $200,000 by year end. We also look at how the shutdown is stalling crypto ETF approvals, new IRS guidance that saved MicroStrategy billions, Stripe’s stablecoin launch, and why some believe Tether could become the world’s most profitable company.

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As of midnight, the U.S. government has officially shut down after Democrats and Republicans failed to reach a last-minute deal. In today’s Breakdown, NLW explores the political brinkmanship behind the shutdown, how the White House may use it to reshape federal programs, and the macroeconomic fallout as millions of workers go unpaid. From consumer confidence and labor market risks to gold at all-time highs, Bitcoin resilience, and AI’s outsized role in holding up U.S. growth, we examine whether this shutdown could be the shock that tips the economy into recession—or just another political spectacle market...

After years of turf wars, the SEC and CFTC are finally signaling a new era of collaboration. At their first joint roundtable in 14 years, agency heads emphasized coordination over consolidation, while industry voices clashed over tokenization standards and compliance. We also break down the SEC’s first crypto no-action letter in five years, Binance’s new white-label push for TradFi, SWIFT’s blockchain integration plans, and the latest on Bitcoin’s September slide and October ETF outlook.

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Fortune revealed that Kraken quietly raised $500 million at a $15 billion valuation—its first significant raise in over a decade—as the exchange eyes a 2026 IPO. Bloomberg followed up with reports of another potential $200–300 million round at a $20 billion valuation. We dig into what this means for Kraken’s future, the escalating scale of Tether’s $500 billion fundraise, growing scrutiny of crypto treasury companies, and SEC Commissioner Hester Peirce’s farewell vision for a new era of crypto regulation.

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In this week’s Friday Five, we dive into Tether’s jaw-dropping $500B valuation bid, the SEC’s surprise innovation exemption, bipartisan momentum on a market structure bill, Ethereum’s latest Wall Street narrative, and breaking news that even Vanguard is finally letting customers buy crypto ETFs. Plus, what Bitcoin’s bloody September tells us about the cycle ahead.

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Coinbase and Cloudflare are pushing forward with X402, a new crypto-powered payments protocol for AI agents. Could agent-to-agent transactions reshape e-commerce and the web itself? Meanwhile, Tom Lee is pitching Ethereum as Wall Street’s neutral chain of choice—even as critics push back—and Michael Saylor doubles down on Bitcoin as the true foundation of digital capital markets.

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Tether is reportedly courting outside investors for the first time—at a staggering $500 billion valuation. In today’s Breakdown, NLW digs into Bloomberg’s report on Tether’s $15–20 billion fundraise, why Cantor Fitzgerald is leading the deal, and what this unprecedented move could mean for crypto, stablecoins, and global finance. Plus, updates on CZ’s venture fund and new SEC and CFTC regulatory initiatives.

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Bitcoin’s September rally finally stumbled, with a 3.5% drop triggering $1.7B in long liquidations—the biggest of the year. While traders were caught offside, on-chain data shows holders aren’t selling, ETF flows remain mixed, and big treasury buys continue. NLW breaks down why this reset matters, how leverage is shaping the market, and what it means as we head into Q4.

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On today’s Breakdown, NLW looks at the latest twists in the crypto market structure bill. A group of 12 Senate Democrats is pushing for true bipartisan authorship, raising the stakes as time runs short to move the legislation forward this year. We examine what their demands could mean for stablecoins, DeFi, and the overall momentum of U.S. crypto regulation. Plus, updates on Treasury’s next steps for the Genius Act, Greyscale’s new crypto index fund, and Bito’s IPO filing.

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In this week’s Friday Five, NLW digs into why Bitcoin’s September performance is surprising markets, what the Fed’s anticlimactic rate cut means for the economy, and how new SEC approvals are reshaping the ETF landscape. He also breaks down Google and Coinbase’s new agent payment protocol for stablecoins, explores fresh token news from Base and MetaMask, and looks at the latest stablecoin and crypto policy moves in the US and UK.

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The Federal Reserve delivered its first rate cut since last November, reducing the target range to 4–4.25% as weakening labor data outweighed inflation concerns. Chair Powell framed the move as a “risk management cut” and an adjustment toward neutral, while politics loomed large with Trump-aligned voices pushing for deeper cuts. Markets and analysts were left uncertain about whether this is the start of an easing cycle or simply a preemptive move in a bifurcated economy driven by AI investment on one side and labor market softness on the other.

Today on The Breakdown, NLW explores Google’s announcement of AP2, a new open-source payments standard that lets AI agents transact securely. Built with Coinbase and more than 60 partners, AP2 integrates with agent standards like MCP and A2A to enable shopping agents, verifiable purchase mandates, and potential blockchain rails. Is this the first real bridge between crypto and AI agents? Plus, updates on UK–US crypto policy coordination, the Bitcoin Strategic Reserve, and why ETF approvals could set up an end-of-year rally.

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On today’s Breakdown, NLW unpacks the Senate’s confirmation of Trump adviser Stephen Moran to the Fed and the fierce debate over central bank independence ahead of Wednesday’s FOMC meeting. He then dives into Coinbase’s exploration of a native token for its Base network, what it could mean for decentralization, shareholder dynamics, and tokenization. Plus, Robinhood announces a new retail venture fund aimed at opening private markets to everyday investors.

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Gemini and Figure Markets both raised significant cash in their IPOs last week, but their subdued trading debuts highlighted a cooler speculative environment compared to Circle’s explosive June listing. NLW unpacks what these IPOs signal about crypto market appetite, Bitcoin’s September sluggishness ahead of the Fed’s rate decision, and why gold and equities could set the stage for Bitcoin’s next move. The episode also covers Tether’s launch of USAT, a U.S. domestic market stablecoin, and the evolving battle for stablecoin dominance, plus the growing but increasingly muddled wave of corporate crypto treasury companies.

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This week’s Friday Five dives into the accelerating cryptoization of finance. SEC Chair Paul Atkins signaled a new era of pro-innovation policy, extending beyond crypto to AI and agentic trading. Senate Democrats introduced their own market structure framework, opening the door to bipartisan progress. Meanwhile, NASDAQ seeks approval for tokenized securities, and BlackRock is moving to tokenize ETFs, underscoring the tokenization race among financial giants. We also cover Gemini’s IPO debut on NASDAQ and what it signals about investor appetite, plus the Fed’s looming rate cuts as weak jobs data clashes with sticky inflation.

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SEC Chair Paul Atkins says the Gensler era of regulation by enforcement is over, as the agency launches Project Crypto to bring clarity and push capital markets on chain. From tokenization and super apps to a wave of new partnerships and IPOs, crypto’s next phase looks set to be fundamentally American.

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Senate Democrats have introduced their own framework for crypto market structure, setting up negotiations with Republicans and potentially clearing the way for bipartisan legislation. The proposal gives the CFTC new powers, pushes for exchange registration under the Bank Secrecy Act, flags DeFi for potential oversight, and seeks to ban stablecoin interest. It also takes political aim at Trump-era crypto projects and calls for stronger ethics rules. With both parties now at the table, the next few months could finally bring real progress on U.S. digital asset legislation, even as TradFi and crypto players race ahead with their own...

August’s jobs report showed just 22,000 payrolls added, unemployment rising to 4.3%, and manufacturing losses continuing—making it the weakest labor market since 2016. With downward revisions and a looming payroll adjustment cutting nearly a million jobs from earlier counts, markets now see a Fed rate cut next week as all but certain. In today’s Breakdown, NLW explores what the numbers mean, the administration’s clash with the BLS, and whether cuts will be good or bad for risk assets.

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Stripe has unveiled Tempo, a new blockchain built for high-throughput stablecoin payments, developed with Paradigm and backed by partners like Visa, Shopify, and Anthropic. The launch has set off a firestorm—Ethereum advocates bristle at yet another corporate L1, critics call it a VC chain, and skeptics question whether credible neutrality is even possible under Stripe’s leadership. Is Tempo the next Visa for stablecoins, or just the ghost of Libra reborn? Today’s Breakdown explores the clash between decentralization ideals and the pragmatic rise of enterprise blockchains.

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In this week’s Friday Five, the Fed announces a digital assets conference, the SEC and CFTC issue a rare joint crypto statement, and Trump family ventures shake up markets with new tokens and a Bitcoin mining play. Plus, prediction markets get the green light in the U.S., and NASDAQ tightens scrutiny on treasury crypto buys.

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The Federal Reserve will host a payments innovation conference next month with stablecoins at the center—a major change for an institution that long kept crypto at arm’s length. At the same time, the Trump family’s American Bitcoin IPO turned into a frenzy on day one, and prediction market Polymarket is officially cleared to launch in the US.

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The SEC and CFTC have issued long-awaited joint guidance clarifying that regulated exchanges can list spot crypto assets. This marks a turning point in U.S. crypto policy, resolving years of turf wars between the agencies and opening the door for both crypto-native and traditional exchanges like NYSE and NASDAQ to support spot trading. In today’s Breakdown, NLW explores what this means for mainstream adoption, the future of ETFs and treasury companies, and why this guidance represents a major step in legitimizing crypto markets.

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Bitcoin just wrapped a volatile Labor Day weekend, with prices dropping 14% from August highs before bouncing slightly above $110K. Analysts debate whether the correction is over, with leverage rebuilding, sentiment turning jittery, and gold surging as a possible leading signal. We dig into Bitcoin’s historical September weakness, why Q3 often stalls out before a Q4 rally, and how whale rotations, global liquidity, and Washington’s packed crypto agenda are shaping the months ahead.

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Today’s Breakdown digs into a dramatic week for markets and politics as President Trump fires Fed Governor Lisa Cook, raising alarms about central bank independence, and floats equity stakes in private companies starting with Intel. From fears of emerging-market style governance to debates over whether Fed credibility still matters, we explore the mounting concerns about America’s economic order and what they could mean for investors heading into Labor Day weekend.

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Bitcoin’s post–Jackson Hole rally was short-lived, with prices plunging below $110,000 after a massive whale liquidation sent shockwaves through the market. Today NLW unpacks how 24,000 BTC moved for the first time in six years, the rotation into Ethereum, and the $640 million in liquidations that followed. Plus, what whale selling means for this cycle, how traders are framing the correction, and whether we’re nearing a late-stage top—or just another round of growing pains.

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At last week’s Jackson Hole gathering, Jerome Powell delivered his final speech as Fed Chair. On the surface it was dry and technical, but markets read it as a dovish signal—and risk assets surged. In today’s Breakdown, NLW digs into what Powell actually said, why markets reacted so strongly, and what the revisions to the Fed’s monetary policy framework mean for inflation, employment, and the future of central bank independence.

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On this Long Read Sunday, NLW turns to Byron Gilliam’s Breakdown newsletter for a discussion of whether crypto narratives are finally becoming reality. From gold’s millennia-long hold on value perception to new empirical evidence linking sovereign risk and crypto adoption, the conversation explores how stories of Bitcoin as digital gold, a hedge against government dysfunction, and a tool for remittances are increasingly backed by data. NLW unpacks the idea of narrative reflexivity in markets, why anecdotes are turning into evidence, and how the perception of crypto is hardening into reality.

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Markets turned their attention to Jackson Hole for Jerome Powell’s final speech as Fed Chair, while crypto and AI narratives kept investors on edge. NLW unpacks how Powell’s tone could shift rate cut expectations, the signals from Wyoming’s new state stablecoin, and why the crypto lobby is racing to lock in legislation before midterms. A slow summer week on the surface, but one filled with clues about where the next big fights will emerge.

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At the Wyoming Blockchain Summit, Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller delivered one of the most striking pro-crypto speeches ever from a senior central banker. Waller argued that decentralized finance is simply the next iteration of financial technology, praised stablecoins as now-mature infrastructure, and said the Fed itself must modernize its payment rails to be compatible with crypto. He even joked about trading meme coins on a DEX as if it were the most normal thing in the world. Later, Senator Cynthia Lummis outlined her timeline for market structure legislation, with momentum building around the Clarity Act. Meanwhile, Wall Street...

At this year’s Wyoming Blockchain Symposium, regulators and policymakers made it clear that crypto’s role in the U.S. financial system is entering a new chapter. Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman delivered a groundbreaking speech on embracing innovation, SEC Chair Paul Atkins signaled fresh thinking on token regulation, and Senate Banking Chair Tim Scott weighed in on the market structure bill. Wyoming also launched its own state-backed stablecoin, underscoring the state’s push to the forefront of digital finance. Plus, we break down market sentiment, MicroStrategy’s shifting guidance, and why some analysts see this bull run extendin...

As Jerome Powell prepares for his final Jackson Hole address, we look back at how his speeches at the Fed’s most important annual gathering have shaped the past six years of monetary policy. From “transitory” inflation to the Volcker comparisons of 2022, Powell’s Jackson Hole moments trace the story of his tenure and the economic landscape we’re living through today.

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After hitting new all-time highs above $124,000, Bitcoin is showing its first signs of weakness. Traders are watching closely as a six-week rally cools off, with historical cycles suggesting a pullback could be near. We look at seasonal market patterns, analyst expectations for Q4, and the growing influence of Bitcoin treasury companies. Plus: the latest on China’s slowdown, altcoin season signals, and Gemini’s surprise IPO plans.

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Grayscale offers more than 20 different crypto investment products. Explore the full suite at grayscale.com. Invest in your share of the future. Investing involves risk...

On this week’s Long Read Sunday, NLW reads two essays exploring the intersection of Bitcoin, crypto, and politics. The first, Red Coin Blue Coin: The New Politics of Exposure, looks at the rise of politically branded Bitcoin treasuries—from Michael Saylor’s Strategy to Trump Media’s $2 billion BTC bet—and asks whether investors are buying the coin or the campaign. The second, A Regulator’s Radical Defense of Privacy by Byron Gilliam, covers SEC Commissioner Hester Peirce’s surprising embrace of cypherpunk ideals and her challenge to the financial surveillance status quo.

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In this week’s Friday Five, NLW and Scott break down U.S. Treasury comments that rattled Bitcoin markets and offered a rare glimpse into America’s BTC holdings, then dive deep into Circle’s launch of a layer one blockchain—and why it’s sparking debate about the return of private chain walled gardens. The conversation explores how rate cuts could hit Circle’s revenue, potential ripple effects for Coinbase, and the shifting competition between crypto-native giants and fintech incumbents. Plus, frothy IPOs like Bullish, Ethereum ETF momentum, and what BlackRock’s $100B in crypto assets means for the market. Duration: 00:22:19

Bitcoin hits $124K and Ethereum surges close to a new record as altcoin mania returns. Meanwhile, institutional exchange Bullish rockets 200% in its IPO before plunging—raising questions about froth in the crypto cycle. NLW unpacks the wild price action, the macro forces driving the rally, and whether this bull run is overheating or just getting started.

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Circle has announced Arc, its own EVM-compatible layer 1 blockchain powered by USDC, joining Stripe, Tether, and Robinhood in the corporate app chain trend. Critics warn it could fragment crypto and undermine decentralization, while supporters see potential for commercial finance use cases. Plus, a mixed CPI report keeps September rate cut hopes alive despite stubborn inflation, as political battles heat up over Fed appointments and proposed changes to U.S. jobs data reporting.

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Grayscale offers more than 20 different crypto investment products. Explore the full suite at grayscale.com. Invest in your share...

NLW breaks down the brewing Senate battle over the crypto market structure bill, with Elizabeth Warren signaling a shift toward acknowledging the need for legislation. We explore Democratic critiques of the Lummis proposal, the strategic implications for regulation, and how this fight could shape the industry’s next chapter. Plus, updates on the Genius Act’s impact on stablecoins, Stripe’s stealth blockchain project, and the red-hot Bullish IPO.

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Grayscale offers more than 20 different crypto investment products. Explore the full suite at grayscale.com. Invest in your share of the future. Invest...

Bitcoin starts the week near all-time highs after a surprise Sunday night rally, even as rumors swirl of another China crypto ban. NLW unpacks why the reports are misleading, the real story of Beijing’s growing unease over Hong Kong’s new stablecoin regime, and what it could mean for capital controls. Plus, Harvard’s $116M Bitcoin buy signals a shift in institutional attitudes, and the White House crypto council sees a leadership change.

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Grayscale offers more than 20 different crypto investment products. Explore the full suite at grayscale.com. Invest in your s...

A new long read argues that crypto’s biggest weakness is its inability to tell its own story—an issue magnified by the mainstream media’s fixation on outdated narratives. NLW agrees with much of the piece, but brings a unique perspective as the former architect of FTX’s high-profile marketing push, including stadium naming rights, Super Bowl ads, and celebrity campaigns. He explains the strategy behind those controversial moves, why they made sense at the time, and how FTX’s collapse wiped out the industry-wide narrative gains they might have brought. This is a candid look at the intersecti...

This week’s Friday Five is packed with U.S. government moves that signal crypto policy has shifted from rhetoric to action. NLW and Scott break down the SEC’s surprising guidance that puts liquid staking outside securities law, Hester Peirce’s call to enshrine financial privacy in the digital age, and the Tornado Cash verdict’s implications for developers. They also cover Trump’s executive orders opening 401(k)s to Bitcoin and other private assets, targeting bank discrimination, and appointing a crypto-friendly Fed governor—all part of a broader trend toward tangible pro-crypto measures.

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In a closely watched case for crypto developers, a New York jury found Tornado Cash co-founder Roman Storm guilty of operating an unlicensed money transmitting business, while deadlocking on money laundering and sanctions charges. NLW unpacks the strange twists of the trial, the judge’s controversial rulings, and why the verdict sets a troubling precedent for DeFi.

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Grayscale offers more than 20 different crypto investment products. Explore the full suite at grayscale.com. Invest in your share of the future. Investing involves risk and possible loss of principal.

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President Trump is preparing an executive order targeting financial institutions over politically motivated debanking, but critics argue it's missing the real culprits—federal regulators. NLW dives into the legacy of Operation Chokepoint, what this new order aims to change, and whether it will prevent future abuses. Then, in a big move for crypto, the SEC clarifies that most liquid staking protocols don’t constitute securities offerings—unlocking DeFi potential. We also look at new stablecoin accounting guidance and the growing calls for serious banking reform from leaders across the political spectrum.

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Washington is buzzing with crypto action. From the CFTC's new crypto sprint to Hester Peirce's bold stand for privacy, this episode dives into the shifting regulatory winds—and what they mean for the future of Bitcoin, markets, and crypto infrastructure. NLW covers ETF outflows, macro pressures, and why the AI economy might be holding up GDP while the labor market struggles. Plus, Project Crypto at the SEC might be the biggest institutional shift yet. It's a packed episode on the changing rules, power struggles, and financial transformations playing out right now.

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Today NLW unpacks a stunning escalation as President Trump fires the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics after a weak jobs report. The move has shaken confidence in the independence of US economic institutions, with critics across the spectrum warning of authoritarian overreach. We look at what this means for the Fed, interest rate policy, and the future of economic data in America. From market reactions to historical comparisons with Venezuela and Argentina, this episode explores whether the blow up around this is TDS or if we’ve crossed a line that can't be uncrossed—and why some are...

For this Long Read Sunday, NLW explores Nick Carter’s sweeping new essay comparing modern stablecoins to 19th-century free banking. Through a condensed version rewritten by Claude, the episode dismantles the common narrative that stablecoins echo a chaotic era of wildcat banking. Instead, it shows how American instability was due to bad regulation—not the concept of private money itself. With successful examples from Scottish and Canadian free banking systems, and a look at how stablecoins leverage tech and market incentives to solve past failures, this is a must-listen for anyone serious about monetary history and crypto’s future.

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This week’s Friday Five is dominated by a stunning speech from the new SEC Chair, signaling a dramatic shift in U.S. crypto policy. NLW breaks down the speech’s implications, from safe harbors and tokenization to a renewed embrace of crypto within securities law. Also on the docket: Powell’s hawkish tone and Trump’s renewed feud with the Fed, Ray Dalio’s bold portfolio advice, a volatile week for crypto treasury companies, and the game-changing JPMorgan-Coinbase partnership that redefines institutional crypto access. All that plus Bitcoin weathers an 80,000-coin liquidation without blinking.

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The July FOMC meeting delivered no rate change—but plenty of political drama. Powell refused to guide toward September cuts, triggering hawkish market reactions and rare dissent from Fed governors Waller and Bowman. Meanwhile, the White House unveiled a sweeping crypto policy roadmap during Powell's press conference, signaling a new era of fiscal dominance and shifting central bank relevance. NLW breaks it all down—from Powell’s quiet rebellion to the Fed’s waning independence and the rise of crypto on the policy stage.

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Crypto treasury companies like Bitmine and Backed are under pressure as investor enthusiasm wanes. Bitmine’s share buyback failed to move markets, raising concerns about narrative exhaustion despite bullish projections and backing from major crypto firms. Meanwhile, Backed’s discounted public offering cratered its stock, and Tether-backed 21 Capital ramps up ahead of listing. NLW explores whether the crypto treasury trend is stalling—and what it means for the broader market.

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In a sobering comments, legendary hedge fund manager Ray Dalio recently warned that the U.S. has crossed a fiscal Rubicon. NLW breaks down Dalio’s thesis of irreversible debt doom, currency devaluation, and the looming end of American monetary dominance. With interest payments surpassing the defense budget and the government falling short on reform, Dalio argues that fiat systems are expiring—and that investors should seek refuge in hard assets like gold and Bitcoin. Plus, updates on Interactive Brokers' stablecoin plans, PayPal’s expanded crypto support, and the ECB’s warnings of monetary irrelevance.

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Galaxy Digital just executed one of the largest Bitcoin OTC deals in history—moving 80,000 BTC worth $9 billion for a mysterious Satoshi-era wallet. In today’s episode, NLW breaks down how the market absorbed the sale with barely a blip, explores speculation around the identity of the seller, and examines what the transaction signals for sovereign reserves and institutional confidence. Plus: ideological divisions among OG Bitcoiners, estate planning vs. capitulation, and what this sale says about the next era of Bitcoin adoption.

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On this Long Read Sunday, NLW dives into the two major fronts of America’s evolving crypto legislation. First, he reads and reacts to a joint op-ed from Congressmen Tom Emmer and Nick Begich urging the Senate to pass the Clarity Act and Anti-CBDC Surveillance State Act following the passage of the Genius stablecoin bill. Then, in a sharp historical detour, NLW turns to Byron Gilliam's essay connecting 1600s VOC dividends in mace and nutmeg to today’s debates over crypto token rights and revenue alignment. It's a double-header episode exploring how regulation, history, and investor trust intersect to shap...

This week's Friday Five dives into a deceptively quiet but consequential stretch for crypto. NLW and Scott Melker break down Dan Tapiero’s massive $50 trillion crypto prediction, institutional progress like JPMorgan’s collateralized crypto lending and Christie's $1B real estate crypto push, and how Ethereum is finally finding its moment. Plus, a look at the evolving Senate version of the crypto market structure bill, lobbying momentum in D.C., and Coinbase’s bold new move with U.S.-based perpetual futures. The theme? The institutional floodgates are opening—and crypto is normalizing fast.

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In today’s episode of The Breakdown, NLW dives deep into the evolving trade dynamics between the U.S. and Japan, asking whether the current trade war is really masking a larger capital or currency war. We explore the details behind a new $550 billion Japan-US investment vehicle, why Japan secured a lower tariff rate, and the controversy surrounding the deal’s legitimacy. NLW also unpacks the political upheaval in Japan, the long-term consequences of the BOJ’s extreme monetary policies, and whether the yen's behavior signals a shift in global financial strategy. Is this just brinksmanship, or a new era of...

In today’s episode, NLW breaks down the newly released Senate draft of the crypto market structure bill—a shockingly slim but significant proposal that could redefine how digital assets are treated in U.S. law. From developer protections to a clean new definition of digital assets and a crypto-native disclosure regime, the Senate's version takes a very different approach than the House’s Clarity Act. NLW explores the bill’s core provisions, the implications for open-source developers, investor protections, and whether tokens are securities. He also covers reactions from legal experts, the next steps in Congress, and what the bill...

Bitcoin dominance is falling. Ethereum is rallying. Altcoins are exploding. Today on The Breakdown, NLW asks: is this the start of a new leg up in the bull market—or the beginning of the end? From surging ETH ETF inflows and treasury company buy pressure to warning signs of froth and echoes of 2021, this episode examines the competing narratives shaping the current moment. NLW unpacks the shifting risk spectrum, the legitimization of crypto through stablecoin legislation, and whether the explosion of altcoin treasury companies signals sustainable innovation—or just the next leverage bubble.

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NLW breaks down the newly signed Genius Act—the first major piece of U.S. crypto legislation. He unpacks what the law actually contains, from reserve requirements and audit rules to the “Libra clause” banning Big Tech stablecoins. With Circle and Tether taking center stage at the White House, what does this mean for the future of stablecoins, tokenization, and U.S. financial dominance? Plus, thoughts on DeFi tailwinds, CBDC fears, Schwab’s crypto plans, and the latest crypto IPO filings.

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For this Long Read Sunday, NLW hands the mic to AI to read three of Byron Gilliam’s standout essays from the Breakdown newsletter. First, “Crypto’s Competitive Advantage” draws a bold parallel between 19th-century U.S. capital markets and the wild world of meme coin ICOs—arguing that pump.fun may be the Erie Railroad of Web3. Next, “Can the Genius Act Save Banks from Stablecoins?” explores how America’s newest crypto legislation recalls the era of Regulation Q, money market funds, and toaster giveaways. Finally, “Anarchy, Crime, and Stablecoins” reflects on how Timothy May might interpret Congress' surprising embrace o...

NLW returns with a jam-packed Friday Five (or Friday 500) to break down the biggest crypto week of the summer. The Genius and Clarity Acts both pass the House with overwhelming bipartisan support—marking the first major crypto legislation on its way to becoming law. Trump floats a retirement-focused crypto investment EO, while the total crypto market cap tops $4 trillion and Ethereum ETFs begin to shine. Meanwhile, a dormant Bitcoin whale awakens, moving billions, raising speculation about Roger Ver or Adam Back. Plus: the U.S. Marshals' BTC holdings spark FOIA drama, and Trump fires up the Fed chaos machine wi...

NLW breaks down the dramatic twists of Crypto Week on Capitol Hill, where GOP infighting brought legislative progress to a near halt. From Trump’s Oval Office intervention to the 7-hour procedural vote—the longest in House history—he unpacks the fragile deal to move the anti-CBDC bill forward. Also in this episode: the mysterious movement of $4.6B in ancient Bitcoin, speculation around Adam Back’s treasury strategy, a $100M Coin Metrics acquisition, and signs of retail returning as Ethereum and altcoins stir to life.

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