The Great Simplification with Nate Hagens

In this week's episode, Nate unpacks the pervasive behavioral pull of sunk cost as a force shaping our material reality, identities, and collective expectations about the future. Past investments – in careers, possessions, and cultural narratives – lock us into patterns of defending what might no longer actually serve us. This tendency becomes more and more relevant as the world shifts in ways that demand adaptability rather than stagnancy. Deep loyalty to former choices, even as we absorb new information about our lived environments, can limit our ability to make wiser, more future-oriented decisions.

By widening the sunk cost lens...

While current conversations about global heating tend to center around a few well-established pieces of science, we don't often hear about the scientists and leaders working at the frontier of what is still unknown about Earth's systems. This includes unpredictable tipping points and cascading effects of our rapidly changing climate, as well as the unconventional adaptation strategies that might help us maintain a stable planet. What is the newest climate science being researched right now, and what areas are we still needing to explore as we fight for a livable future? 

In this episode, Nate is joined b...

In this week's Frankly, Nate explores how the prices we encounter in our daily lives are influenced by not only how much money is in the system, but also by resource depletion, technology, affordability by 'the masses,' and trust within a complex global system.

Prices are deeply intertwined with the biophysical reality that underpins our society, and are affected by major forces that often operate unseen to the average consumer. Other forces – like leverage, complexity, and currency reform – also have longer term repercussions within our monetary system. These have the ability to create both inflationary and defl...

Technological development has always been a double-edged sword for humanity: the printing press increased the spread of misinformation, cars disrupted the fabric of our cities, and social media has made us increasingly polarized and lonely. But it has not been since the invention of the nuclear bomb that technology has presented such a severe existential risk to humanity – until now, with the possibility of Artificial Super Intelligence (ASI) on the horizon. Were ASI to come to fruition, it would be so powerful that it would outcompete human beings in everything – from scientific discovery to strategic warfare. What might happen to o...

Over the past decade, the world has become increasingly chaotic and uncertain – and so, too, has our cultural vision for the future. While the events we face now may feel unprecedented, they are rooted in much deeper patterns, which humanity has been playing out for millennia. If we take the time to understand past trends, we can also employ practices and philosophies that might counteract them –  such as focusing on kinship, intimacy, and resilience – to help pave the way for a better future. How might we nurture the foundations of a different kind of society, even while the end of our...

Over the past decade, the world has become increasingly chaotic and uncertain – and so, too, has our cultural vision for the future. While the events we face now may feel unprecedented, they are rooted in much deeper patterns, which humanity has been playing out for millennia. If we take the time to understand past trends, we can also employ practices and philosophies that might counteract them –  such as focusing on kinship, intimacy, and resilience – to help pave the way for a better future. How might we nurture the foundations of a different kind of society, even while the end of our...

In this week's episode, Nate invites listeners into an exploration of what it means to navigate a growing predicament shaped by ecological limits, rapid technological changes, and shifting expectations of reality. Our complex world hosts an immense diversity of human (and non-human) circumstances, which demand responses that are adaptive, not static. Rather than offer misleadingly prescriptive answers, Nate lays out a set of "compass points" that serve to both challenge our assumptions, and to attune our values in the direction of 'better futures than the default.'

Our responses to the 'more-than-human predicament' as individuals, communities, and...

For centuries, modern science has relied on the scientific method to better understand the world around us. While helpful in many contexts, the scientific method is also objective, controlled, and reductionist – often breaking down complex systems into smaller parts for analysis and isolating subjects to test hypotheses. In contrast, indigenous wisdom is deeply contextual, rooted in lived experience, and emphasizes a reciprocal, integrated relationship with the rest of the natural world, viewing all parts of the system as interconnected. What becomes possible when we combine the strengths of each of these knowledge systems as we navigate humanity's biggest challenges?

In this episode, Nate weaves personal reflections into an exploration of the human predicament, unpacking a series of chronological insights that have reshaped his worldview. What began years ago as an investigation into oil has morphed into a deep lifelong journey into the complex web of energy, psychology, evolution, and systems that drive today's society. By sharing stories and realizations from his own life, whether it's the debunking of Wall Street energy illusions or unpacking how sexual selection is often as important a behavioral driver as natural selection, Nate invites listeners to step back and see the human story...

Global heating continues, despite the increased use of renewable energy sources and international policies attempting otherwise. Even as emissions reduction efforts continue, our world faces more extreme weather, sea level rise, and human health impacts, all of which are projected to accelerate in the coming decades. This raises an important but controversial question: at what point might more drastic interventions, like geoengineering, become necessary in order to cool the planet?

In this episode, Nate interviews Professor Ted Parson about solar geoengineering (specifically stratospheric aerosol injection) as a potential response to severe climate risks. They explore why humanity...

Mainstream conversations about artificial intelligence tend to center around the technology's economic and large-scale impacts. Yet it's at the individual level where we're seeing AI's most potent effects, and they may not be what you think. Even in the limited time that AI chatbots have been publicly available (like Claude, ChatGPT, Perplexity, etc.), studies show that our increasing reliance on them wears down our ability to think and communicate effectively, and even erodes our capacity to nurture healthy attachments to others. In essence, AI is atrophying the skills that sit at the core of what it means to be...

In this week's Frankly, Nate outlines four bifurcations that are likely to underpin the human experience in the near future. While the broad biophysical realities of energy and ecology underpin our civilization's movement over time, in the moment, people will experience these trends mostly economically and psychologically. Whether related to the widening of an already existing economic gap or the expansion of dependence on cognitive crutches like AI, the demographics that comprise society are starting to splinter – to bifurcate. These divergences, and the ways we cope with them, contribute to increasing incoherence as a species.

What are th...

Many of us wrestle with the unsettling truth that everyone – including ourselves and those we love – will one day die. Though this awareness is uncomfortable, research suggests that the human capacity to contemplate death is a byproduct of consciousness itself. In fact, our efforts to cope with mortality are at the core of culture, religion, the desire for wealth, and even many of today's societal crises. How might a deeper understanding of our implicit reactions to mortality help us turn towards responses that are more supportive of our species and planet? 

In this episode, Nate is joined by Sh...

In this week's Frankly, Nate considers the ways in which our social species overvalues false-confidence rather than the more honest and inquisitive response of "I don't know." He invites us to consider the science behind this cultural bias towards certainty: from our biological response from the stress of "not knowing" to the reinforcing effects of motivated reasoning that ensnares even the smartest among us (especially the smartest among us).

Overconfidence and the desire for quick answers have been the root cause of many of humanity's disasters, from the space shuttle Challenger explosion to the Deep Water Horizon...

Monopolistic business practices have been illegal in the United States for more than a century. Yet, monopoly power continues to accelerate in our modern commercial landscape. Large, powerful corporations edge out smaller businesses, often citing scale, "efficiency", and lower costs as their reasons for success. But looking more closely reveals a reality that is far different. Small businesses are more cost-effective and deliver better results to the people they serve than giant corporations. Furthermore, they form the backbone of engaged and connected communities. So what is actually preventing small businesses (and communities) from flourishing, and what can individuals do...

In this week's Frankly, Nate reflects on the multiple metaphors brought to mind via a single photograph, which depicts a sloth climbing a barbed wire fence in Costa Rica. Beyond evoking compassion for a species that's on the receiving end of human intervention into its ecosystem, the image raises larger ideas about the response of animals, including humans, to artificial cues and novel environments. Just as the sloth mistakes a fence post for the safety of a tree, modern humans mistake consumption, speed, and certainty for meaning.

Moving beyond just the image, Nate unpacks the word "sloth"...

Twenty-five years ago, a landmark paper warned that the world's coral reefs could vanish by 2050. Now, halfway to that projected date (and amid ever more frequent coral bleaching events), that grim prediction feels increasingly close to reality. What is the current state of Earth's coral reefs, and what would happen to our planetary home without them? 

In this episode, Nate is joined by Ove Hoegh-Guldberg, the marine biologist who made this landmark prediction, for an update on the health of coral reefs and the primary ecological stressors driving their decline. Drawing on decades of research, he explains t...

For many people in the modern world, electricity powers everything we do. Yet we take for granted how power flows in the background, seemingly always accessible to us just by flipping a switch. In fact, most of us are completely unaware of what it takes to generate and transmit the power we so deeply rely on, let alone the policy decisions shaping our electrical grids – or how they might affect reliable access to power. How do today's electrical grids actually work, and do they align with our long-term goals for human and planetary well-being?

In this episode, Na...

To view the graphs Nate is referring to in this episode, please click here.

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In this week's Frankly, Nate returns from New York City Climate Week with fresh reflections on the disconnect between our economic narratives and biophysical realities. Using his background in finance, Nate observes that while the prioritization of financial abstractions and claims continue to accelerate, with gold and silver prices reaching record-setting highs, the ledger is being balanced with parallel declines in our planetary health and social resilience. This tradeoff is harder and harder to ignore as newly crossed planetary boundaries...

The overarching definition of success today often looks like the accumulation of stuff – money, cars, property, clothing – anything that signals wealth. This means that success is also synonymous with overshoot, extraction, and consumption – none of which lead to healthy outcomes for the planet or the global good. But what might be possible if we were to redefine success to prioritize collective well-being instead of personal gain?

In today's episode, Nate sits down with Dutch historian and author Rutger Bregman to discuss the concept of moral ambition, which he defines as the desire to be one of the best...

In this week's Frankly, Nate reflects on intraspecies predation (ours) and the impact psychopathic actors have on the mean and median of human behavior – in the past all the way up to our modern society. Human evolution was shaped by both cooperative, pro-social behavior and a competitive, predatory approach for survival – resulting in a balanced distribution for most of humanity's existence.  

But, as agriculture, surplus, and other factors propelled more hierarchical social structure, aggregate human behavior and culture has slowly shifted over time to express more psychopathic traits. This thread of behavior continues to run through our modern...

For many people today, the idea of societal collapse is unimaginable. Yet history shows that well-established civilizations have fallen again and again – often for similar reasons. In fact, the same forces that build empires can also culminate in their downfall. How can understanding these historical patterns help us prepare for similar existential risks we may already be facing today? 

In this episode, Nate is joined by existential risk researcher Luke Kemp to explore the intricate history of societal collapse – connecting patterns of dominance hierarchies, resource control, and inequality to create societies which he calls Goliaths. Together, they delve...

Psychopathy is often portrayed as a rare and distant phenomenon – something confined to movie villains or prison cells. Yet when psychopathy is combined with narcissism and Machiavellianism to form what psychologists call the Dark Triad, its impact becomes far more immediate. Individuals with these traits can wield disproportionate influence over our culture, institutions, and daily lives. What goes on inside their minds, and how do they shape the world around us?

In this episode, Nate is joined by Dr. Reid Meloy and Dr. Nancy McWilliams to explore the inner workings of the Dark Triad personality traits and th...

In this week's Frankly, in a continuation of his 'This Week's Learnings' series, Nate  updates viewers on things he learned in the past week, and the implications for our sociocultural trajectory. This edition focuses on recent financial and political headlines – global gold holdings, shifting geopolitical energy deals, and new U.S. Department of Energy reports – and explains their relevance to our biophysical reality and broader geopolitical landscape. Through this exercise, Nate invites podcast viewers to use a systems lens to integrate the wide array of news we are bombarded with into the large evolving story of The Human Predicament.

To best understand this episode, please watch this ~2 minute video on the biotic pump.

It's widely known that Earth's forests provide home to countless numbers of species, act as a vast sink for carbon, and provide much of the food, materials, and clean water on which our societies rely. But emerging science shows us that forests may play another critical role: making rain. This theory, called the biotic pump theory, hypothesizes that instead of being passive recipients of rain, forests may actively create the conditions for precipitation over land – a premise that turns modern meteorology on...

In this week's Frankly, Nate weighs the value of a pound of gold with other things that we derive worth from in our lives – from dollars and bitcoin to...less pecuniary markers. Although gold is simply a metal, it has long been a symbol of wealth in human cultures. Through highlighting other important, sometimes intangible forms of wealth, Nate encourages the viewer to not only examine what they place the most worth on in their own lives, but also to consider why things have worth to us as humans living in a complex, modern system.

What contributes to...

Water has always been a fundamental force shaping our planet – both in sustaining life across ecosystems and in guiding the organization and survival of human societies. Yet, many of us are unaware of how intertwined our lives are with the water cycle, much less of the ways we  deplete and degrade the water resources that we and other living creatures rely upon for our very existence. What might change if we had a deeper understanding of global and regional hydrological cycles?

On this Reality Roundtable, Nate is joined by Heather Cooley, Zach Weiss, and Mike Joy to dis...

In the next 25 years, the International Organization for Migration estimates that one billion people will be displaced from their homes due to climate-related events. From island nations underwater to inland areas too hot and extreme to sustain life, the individuals and communities in these areas will need somewhere new to live. Where will these people go, and how will this mass migration add further pressure to the stability of nations and the world? 

In this episode, Nate is joined by environmental and migration historian, Sunil Amrith, to explore the complex history of human movement – and what it rev...

In this week's Frankly, Nate unpacks some key blindspots of "the walrus movement"—a placeholder label that's a gentle nod to those championing bold social and ecological ideals. While mostly well-intentioned, this "movement" can miss the stark limits of our planet's unfolding biophysical reality.

What happens when lofty goals sidestep ecological and energetic realities? How might we incorporate these oversights to drive clear, purposeful action towards a (more) sustainable future? And how do we ground ourselves in biophysical truths while envisioning a system that better serves the planet and its people?

(Recorded August 11, 2025)

Our personal concept of identity shapes every decision we make – ranging from life-altering choices to our smallest daily preferences. Identity influences our values, the relationships we build, and how we respond to an increasingly unpredictable world, whether in constructive or destructive ways. But how are these identities formed, and how might we take a more deliberate role in cultivating a healthy sense of self – and therefore a healthier way of relating to the world?

In this episode, Nate is joined by social neuroscientist Taylor Guthrie to delve into the neuroscience of identity, exploring how the brain constructs a se...

In this week's Frankly, Nate shares an excerpt from his daily life that mirrors a larger observation on the human predicament. A grocery shopping trip turns into a reflection on value vs cost, and how consumption in our society is driven by the perception of value that's presented to us. 

What is the difference in value that our minds create between a $5 container of blueberries, and a $1 container? What is the difference between price, cost and value? What things in our lives do we treat as disposable when they are cheap, but treat as treasure when they a...

In Western culture, topics surrounding death and dying are often considered taboo and are generally avoided in everyday conversations. But this reluctance to fully acknowledge and integrate death as a natural part of the human experience has rendered us less able to cope with the end of life and less prepared to show up for ourselves and the people around us as we inevitably navigate loss. But what if a more skillful engagement with death and grief could actually offer us a more mindful approach to living?

In this conversation, Nate is joined by Stephen Jenkinson, a...

Insects, bugs, creepy-crawlies – these small animals are often considered a nuisance (or worse) by humanity, bringing up an ongoing desire to kill or mitigate these "pests" that plague our backyards, homes, and gardens. But we're beginning to see that, despite our cultural misconceptions, insects are actually at the foundation of our biosphere, food supply, and nearly every life process on Earth. This makes recent reports of rapidly declining insect populations all the more troubling – but can we recognize the vital importance of insects and reverse the harm we've done before it's too late?

On this episode, Nate is j...

In this week's Frankly, Nate reflects on a moment of unexpected insight during a morning bike ride, which catalyzed a larger meditation on the modern human predicament. This episode explores the neuroscience of dopamine, and offers a reflection on the ways it plays into distraction, technology, and how we interact with the hyperstimulating world around us. 

What is the "ghost of dopamine past," and how does it shape not only our individual lives, but our collective economic and ecological behavior? Why does the urge to scroll on our phones override the deep calm of watching wildlife? And h...

Money, debt, and finance shape the lives of everyone globally, including through the policies and actions of national central banks – yet even those who are well-versed in these subjects often miss the full scope of these intricate relationships. For the average person, headlines about mounting government debt and surging interest rates often feel like a confusing and concerning trend. What can we learn from historical cycles, global energy dynamics, and the differing fiscal strategies of nations about the trajectory of the world economy?

In today's episode, Nate is joined once more by Lyn Alden for a deeper ex...

In this Earth Day presentation, recorded earlier this year, Nate offers nine broad paths for individuals to cultivate resilience in an increasingly uncertain and unstable period of human history. From the intellectual & ecological to the spiritual & psychological, these ideas might be considered waypoints for navigating the human predicament, and - in aggregate - help build 'scout teams' of humans working on the upcoming cultural transition away from infinite material expansion.

How do we slow down and reject the "hustle culture" that prioritizes gains in efficiency, wealth and consumption over all else? How do we maximize the positive...

Packaging is an unavoidable feature of modern life. It's so embedded in our products and systems that even the most environmentally-minded consumers struggle to avoid it entirely. Yet packaging accounts for nearly half of all plastic waste, contributing to widespread ecological harm and growing threats to human health – highlighting the urgent need for an overhaul of packaging materials and industry practices. So how are some industry leaders reimagining materials, systems, and supply chains in ways that align with the realities of our finite planet?

In today's episode, Nate is joined by Wes Carter, president of Atlantic Packaging, to...

In this week's Frankly, Nate shares a handful of things he's learned in the past few days that have implications for the Great Simplification. Nate covers a wide range of topics in this edition, from the connections between corn sweat and wet bulb temperatures to a timeline of coral reef bleaching events. 

Our culture is marked by information overload, which has been expanded intensely by technology. This makes it difficult to absorb the data, narratives, and headlines we are presented—let alone sort through them and examine what is relevant for the Great Simplification scenario. This will per...

Economic theory has come to wield outsized influence over our societal goals, decisions, and policies – often relying on models that claim to optimize how human systems function. Yet the outcomes of our modern economic structures tell a different story: accelerating ecological collapse, widening inequality, declining public health, and increasing social disconnection. What if the foundational principles of mainstream economics are actually built on false assumptions that obscure the realities of our world? 

In this conversation, Nate is joined by ecological economist Josh Farley to explore the persistent myths taught in business schools, and the disconnect between economic the...

In today's Frankly, Nate imagines that he's looking back from an unspecified point in the future (even from beyond his lifetime), and ponders the core things he would want during his time on Earth. Breaking from what our culture steers us to seek out, Nate examines what a bedrock of human experiences might include — the things in our lives that keep us grounded and experiencing life to the fullest extent.

While naming some of the things he values in his own life, from experiencing full spectrum love to having a purpose, Nate encourages the viewer to reflect on...

When facing the realities of our world, the urge to drown in grief or shut down into apathy is becoming more and more common. As we are flooded with information and global predicaments outside of our control, overwhelm can set in, affecting our energy, efficacy, and even our ability to care. But what if facing our grief is actually the pathway to increasing our capacity to stay connected to and work on the things that matter most to us? What tools, practices, or rituals could we use to help us begin to metabolize our grief?

In this...

In today's Frankly, Nate reads and responds to questions from viewers of the channel, offering reflections on a wide range of topics from current events, balancing fear and action surrounding often existential topics, green technology, and more. By directly addressing these questions, Nate aims to further unpack some of the nuances in the complex and expansive concept of The Great Simplification.

The goal of TGS is to build out a comprehensive outlook that connects the dots of energy, human-made systems, and Earth's functioning ecosystems. By making clear the biophysical reality of our current predicament, this platform aims...

Recently, the risks about Artificial Intelligence and the need for 'alignment' have been flooding our cultural discourse – with Artificial Super Intelligence acting as both the most promising goal and most pressing threat. But amid the moral debate, there's been surprisingly little attention paid to a basic question: do we even have the technical capability to guide where any of this is headed? And if not, should we slow the pace of innovation until we better understand how these complex systems actually work?

In this episode, Nate is joined by Artificial Intelligence developer and researcher, Connor Leahy, to di...

Economics departments around the world teach a narrow boundary story of the way our world works. A narrative of infinite growth driven by consumption and money, which has dominated our culture and unknowingly shaped the way we live. But does this story really reflect our biophysical reality – or the full scope of humanity's role within it?

In this week's Frankly, Nate identifies 10 myths being taught in business schools today, and the massive implications these misconceptions hold for society. From the way we define value and the boundaries of success to the idolization of self-interest and human ingenuity, th...

National security concerns have been the invisible hand guiding governance throughout recorded history. In the 20th century, it was defined by a country versus country dynamic: whichever nation was the strongest and most strategic was also the safest. But today, our biggest national security threats don't come from opposing nations – they are "actorless threats" that emerge from the breakdown of the complex systems we all depend on – from the stability of our planetary systems to our intricately complex and fragile global supply chains. In this unprecedented landscape, what is required of us in order to keep our citizens safe? 

👉 WATCH THE MOVIE HERE 👈

Three years ago, my team and I created a 30-minute movie that provides a comprehensive systems analysis of the human predicament—spanning energy, economics, ecology, and behavioral psychology. This beautifully animated film aims to help viewers understand the interconnected crises defining our era.

When we first released this film, our podcast was just beginning and our community was much smaller. Today, more than 100,000 people have joined the conversation; and with 300+ hours of content now on our channel, this movie has become an essential orientation tool — a "start here" primer — fo...

Over the last few decades, humanity has globalized everything – from food production and supply chains to communication and information systems – making countries, businesses, and individuals more connected and reliant on each other than ever before. Yet, with this increased interconnectedness comes more complexity and fragility. What have we lost through the globalization process, and how might we fortify our communities by investing in local economies?

In this episode, Nate is joined by Helena Norberg-Hodge – a leading voice in the localization movement – to explore the deep systemic challenges posed by economic globalization. Together, they examine how the global growth m...

Living in a period increasingly fraught by various crises and risks, it is more necessary than ever to be able to metabolize anxiety into something useful. But what about at a cultural level? The behaviors that the current economic superstructure rewards cannot form the basis of what emerges from its ashes…we require new ways of thinking and living that put us in closer relationship to one another and the planet around us. In a system structured to serve as a dissipative structure, how do we plant the seeds of something that is more resilient and cooperative?

In...

While most industries are embracing artificial intelligence, citing profit and efficiency, the tech industry is pushing AI into education under the guise of 'inevitability'. But the focus on its potential benefits for academia eclipses the pressing (and often invisible) risks that AI poses to children – including the decline of critical thinking, the inability to connect with other humans, and even addiction. With the use of AI becoming more ubiquitous by the day, we must ask ourselves: can our education systems adequately protect children from the potential harms of AI?

In this episode, Nate is joined once again by...

In a world grappling with converging crises, we often look outward – for new tech, new markets, new distractions. But the deeper issue lies within: our relationship with energy, nature, and each other. What if we step back far enough to see human civilization itself as an organism that is growing without a plan?

In this week's Frankly — adapted from a recent TED talk like presentation (called Ignite) — Nate outlines how humanity is part of a global economic superorganism, driven by abundant energy and the emergent properties of billions of humans working towards the same goal. Rather than focusi...

For all of human history, the oceans and the life within them have remained a stable and fundamental part of Earth as we know it. Yet, for the past few decades, fisheries and scientists alike have observed massive migrations in marine ecosystems unlike anything we've ever witnessed. What is driving these unprecedented movements, and how are they rippling out to affect every aspect of life

In this conversation, Nate is joined by marine ecologist Malin Pinsky, whose decades of research shed light on the dramatic migrations of marine species due to rising ocean temperatures. Malin breaks down...

In a world increasingly mediated by machines, the boundaries between human identity and artificial intelligence are beginning to blur. While some embrace the tools of the future, others quietly resist, preserving ways of being that have endured for millennia. What happens when AI becomes not just a tool but a mirror?

In this week's Frankly, Nate introduces a new typology of how AI may shape human behavior in the years ahead. He outlines eight archetypes reflecting our varied relationships to artificial intelligence—ranging from resistance and discipline to dependence and immersion. Rather than focusing on technological capability, he...

It's no secret that massive change is needed to restore our planet's vital ecosystems. Permaculture offers practices to restore local environments by focusing on creating sustainable agricultural systems that mimic patterns found in nature. But how might permaculture initiatives go beyond agriculture to transform some of our largest-scale problems, such as social cohesion, climate stabilization, and even human migration?

In this conversation, Nate sits down with permaculture educator Andrew Millison to discuss the Great Green Wall project, a massive ecological initiative aimed at combating desertification in the Sahel region of Africa. They explore the causes of the...

In a culture driven by achievement, autonomy, and digital distraction, our sense of identity is often shaped by performance and external validation. Yet beneath this surface, many carry unseen psychological imprints from childhood and culture alike. What happens when we begin to examine these layers and imagine healthier ones?

In this week's Frankly, Nate explores the themes of attention, awareness, and the psychological impacts of modern life. Through poetry and reflection, he examines the pull toward validation and control that shapes many of our behaviors. Building on the Ideal Parent Figure Protocol developed by Dr. Daniel P...

There is only one known planet in the universe capable of meeting humanity's needs – Earth.  And yet, our understanding and appreciation of the underlying complexity that makes it function remains limited. If we were able to grasp the transformative potential of biodiversity – specifically how it relates to biocomplexity – how might we change our behavior?

In this episode, Nate is joined by ecologist Thomas Crowther to discuss the critical importance of biodiversity as an intricate web of life that supports all other living beings, not just through the sheer number of species, but because of the complexity of interac...

With more people on the planet than ever before – with most having constant digital access to one another – there is an abundance of potential relationships available to us. Despite this, there is also an increasing loneliness crisis across global society. What can evolutionary psychology teach us about this lack of meaningful relationships at a time of hyper-connectivity?

In this week's Frankly, Nate reflects on the effects of technology on modern relationships, and how Dunbar's number infers a ceiling on the number of people we can meaningfully interact with. He emphasizes the rare value of full attention in clos...

Last week, Europe experienced its worst blackout in living memory, which plunged tens of millions of people across Spain and Portugal into darkness for up to 18 hours. Life screeched to a halt, with trains, traffic lights, ATMs, phone connections, and internet access failing. In the aftermath, many important questions have arisen, including: what caused such a widespread grid failure, and how can Europe and other nations prepare for the next time an event like this happens? 

In today's episode, Nate is joined by Pedro Prieto to discuss the recent blackout in the Iberian Peninsula, exploring its causes, i...

Each morning, people around the world wake up to more troubling headlines – from power outages in Spain and Portugal to intensifying drone attacks in Ukraine. For some people, diving into the facts and data behind these types of crises provides an increase in knowledge resulting in agency and response.

On the other hand, a growing number of people feel overloaded with the constant stream of information about the multitude of threats in our world. How can people on this second arc of sensemaking still engage with these issues by grounding themselves in individual and community initiatives?

As economic, political, and environmental pressures continue to reshape our daily choices, it's becoming increasingly clear that the era of hyper-consumption that defined the past century is no longer sustainable. Recognizing and adapting to this reality represents one of the most profound cultural shifts of our time – requiring collective reflection and cooperation. But just as importantly, how can we recalibrate our personal expectations today in ways that preserve our sense of agency and sufficiency?

In this episode, Nate is joined by energy expert and educator Jean-Marc Jancovici, who shares insights from his ongoing work advising governments and th...

What if the most powerful tool humanity has ever created could either help heal the Earth — or accelerate its unraveling?

In this special Earth Week edition of Frankly, Nate delves into what it truly means for a technology or project to be "in service of Life," using the rapidly evolving landscape of Artificial Intelligence as an example. Like any other tool that humanity has created, AI has the potential to either mitigate humanity's impact on our planetary home or deepen the ecological crises we face. Nate speculates on the key metrics that might guide AI and other te...

The psychological effects of media consumption and keeping up with the 24-hour news cycle are vast. It can sometimes feel impossible to stay educated on current events without also feeling hopeless, disempowered, or even enraged. Worse, the incentives and structures of modern media outlets seem more and more geared towards capturing our attention at any cost… including our mental health, trust in one another, and even open societies themselves. Given this, is there a way to get back to a form of media and journalism that helps us feel empowered, and if so, how do we do it? 

...

As current events continue to accelerate around us, there is no better time to pause and view the rapid changes unfolding around us through a broader, systemic perspective. It's only by slowing down and adopting this holistic lens that we can begin to meaningfully prepare for what lies ahead.

In this short edition of Frankly, Nate dives into the theme of unintended consequences across energy, environmental issues, and social movements.. Through this lens, we understand the importance of looking two or three steps ahead of today's actions and see the - sometimes unwanted - ripple effects in...

When we are able to see the full scope of a problem, rather than a fragment, it changes how we respond. Throughout history, comprehensive data has catalyzed transformative change—from the measurements that spurred the halting of ozone depletion to the coral reef monitoring networks that revealed the devastating impacts of ocean acidification. Yet, the average person remains disconnected from visualizing their lifestyle's impact on Earth's systems, leaving an incomplete perception of our collective footprint. But what transformations might occur if we could observe the full consequences of our consumption patterns as they ripple across forests, oceans, and the at...

A few months ago, we invited viewers to share the projects, initiatives, and lifestyle changes they've embraced after becoming aware of the global challenges facing humanity. In this special compilation episode, we're featuring just a few of the many inspiring videos that were submitted. The responses were diverse and surprising, ranging from community education and regenerative projects to small-scale repair shops and off-grid living. We hope these examples serve as inspiration for the kinds of prosocial actions we can each take in our own lives.

Additionally, if you tend to listen to the podcast on audio platforms...

As we deepen our understanding of the existential challenges facing humanity, the path from our industrialized lifestyles to ones that respect planetary boundaries can often feel unclear and overwhelming. However, there are already individuals and communities who have transformed their way of life to do just that. What are the lessons they've learned along the way, and how might we use them to transform our own lives? 

Today, Nate is joined by Alexis Zeigler, a founding member of the cooperative community Living Energy Farm, to take a peek into the Farm's unique daily life and explore their i...

Language is one of humanity's most unique and powerful tools. We are amazingly good at imagining the pictures created through words - almost to the point that even the most fantastical things can seem real. But how might this extraordinary ability backfire as we try to chart the course for the 21st century?

In this Frankly, Nate explores the limitations of using our imaginations to shape our understanding of what's possible through the use of three categories: what can't happen, what won't happen, and what might happen. Nate demonstrates how this framework can be used by going...

While the wealth of the world's richest individuals continues to accumulate year after year, funding billions into AI, technology, and innovation, our true wealth—the planet's natural ecosystems—receives only a fraction of the funding needed for restoration and protection. What can we learn from those rare individuals who have dedicated their lives to conserving and rewilding the Earth, choosing to invest in nature rather than the next market breakthrough?

Today Nate is joined by conservationist Kristine Tompkins, to discuss her decades of work on conservation initiatives in South America, the value of personal responsibility, and how she...

As the world is increasingly shaped by the dominance of 'Big Tech' – including the race for Artificial Intelligence – the outsized impact on our democratic and information systems has left many with fears and confusion about the path forward. But what if we could use technology as a tool that helps preserve the values of democracy and increases civic engagement, rather than eroding them? Furthermore, what sorts of people, projects, and policies are already paving the way? 

Today Nate is joined by Taiwanese Digital Ambassador at large, Audrey Tang, to explore real-world examples of how technology is being lever...

The rapidly evolving geopolitical landscape of recent years can be hard to follow. With economic conflicts between global superpowers and violent clashes across multiple continents, today's events can seem starkly different from the trajectory of past decades. So, how can a deeper understanding of energy and resource security help us make sense of these chaotic trends?

In this discussion, Nate is joined by Art Berman, Michael Every, and Izabella Kaminska for a broad exploration of the complex relationship between energy, geopolitics, and economic strategy. Together, they provide valuable insights into the consequences of deindustrialization, the impact of...

The human brain has proven to be particularly good at breaking down all sorts of things into categories and dichotomies - even our perception of the world itself is often split between 'thinking' and 'feeling,' shaped by the sensory input we receive. It seems that our values, beliefs, opportunities – even how we define ourselves as individuals – are limited to opposing and polarized options. Yet, does this binary mindset only lead us toward more blind-spots?

In this Frankly, Nate unpacks the influence of beliefs on our feelings, and how it ultimately affects our actions. As global risks and...

The threats facing the United States' stability seem to be escalating daily - from aging electric grids and deteriorating infrastructure to rising information warfare from domestic and international sources. How are some of the leaders within our institutions approaching these risks to respond with resilience and strengthen our national security? 

Today, Nate is joined by national and homeland security authority Dan O'Connor to discuss what he sees as the most pressing risks for the stability and resilience of the United States. Dan emphasizes the critical role of energy in shaping our societal structures and the need for a...

Western culture, particularly in the United States, is often characterized by a profound discomfort and suppression of grief. Without healthy outlets to process loss and pain – especially in communal settings – many of us end up caught in cycles of loneliness and emotional distress. How might incorporating intentional spaces and rituals to process our grief regularly help us navigate the more systemic challenges we face? 

In this conversation, Nate is joined by psychotherapist Francis Weller to discuss the essential human need for grief. Among many poignant topics, they delve into how modern individualism impacts our ability to grieve and f...

As the world continued its increasingly chaotic series of events this week - with disruptive events in everything from politics to artificial intelligence, a spring blizzard swept through the upper Midwest of the United States, reminding those who live here that mother nature continues to show up in all her unpredictability and beauty.

In this Frankly, Nate discusses the human predicament in the context of ecological overshoot, energy dynamics, and the impact of a potential 'singularity' in artificial intelligence. He delves into the essence of humanity, advocating for a deeper understanding of our needs beyond material goods...

Caught between increasing energy prices and rising carbon emissions, the idea of reducing our energy consumption is a practical and forward-looking necessity. Yet, with communities in the United States averaging ten thousand watts per year - with other Western countries close behind - our excessive energy consumption is built into both our physical and cultural infrastructure. How much energy do we truly need to lead fulfilling lives, and what changes would be necessary in our neighborhoods and cities to achieve that?

In today's discussion, Nate is joined by Peter Strack, a French researcher and author, to explore...

The period of relative peace and stability we've known - enabled by the energy surplus of the Carbon Pulse and the ecological stability of the Holocene - is slipping away. AI is turbocharging the Superorganism, governance structures are fraying, and ecological shocks are intensifying. As the Great Simplification approaches faster than expected, are we asking the right questions?

In this Frankly, Nate invites us to reflect on some of the most urgent questions of our time - and what they might mean for both our collective and individual trajectories ahead. Can open societies endure on the downslope...

(Conversation recorded on January 2nd, 2025)  

When looking at our global challenges, it can be easier to focus on the external factors that could be different. Yet a critical part of creating impactful change is turning the scope of reflection inward towards how our patterns of thinking influence the way we contribute to our surroundings. Is it possible that a path toward a better future begins in our own heads? 

Today Nate is joined by psychiatrist and neurologist Iain McGilchrist for a deep dive on the implications of western society's over-reliance on analysis and cate...

(Recorded February 18th, 2025)

Individually and collectively, we have become fixated on the pursuit and accumulation of wealth. But what is wealth? Our singular focus on financial capital obscures a fundamental truth: money is merely a marker for real wealth, all of which originates in nature. With the universal fungibility of the US dollar into everything as the engine, we are now transmuting the world's wealth into income at an unprecedented rate. Driven by cultural incentives to maximize individual profit, we are collectively depleting the high quality ores and energy stocks, as well as the natural w...

(Conversation recorded on November 22nd, 2024)

The first few months of the new year have brought a cacophony of political news and power plays, bringing with it an uproar of public outrage in the United States and around the world. In the midst of an unprecedented moment in modern history, what can history – and even mathematics – teach us about moments of political unrest and upheaval? 

In this episode, Nate is joined by complexity scientist, Peter Turchin, to discuss his work modeling the key factors that drive patterns of peace, turmoil, and revolution in nations throug...

(Recorded February 12th, 2025)

Deception and self-interest seem to be increasingly prevalent in our modern cultural reality. From the highest levels of power to the cultural metrics of what is considered 'success' for individual humans: the Dark Triad traits of Narcissism, Sociopathy, and Machiavellianism have become disturbingly normalized. But is there an antidote? Could an opposing "Light Triad" of traits - if nurtured and protected - offer a path toward a society in service of life rather than power?

In this Frankly, Nate explores the concept of Light Triad personalities and their struggle against t...

(Conversation recorded on November 12th, 2024)  

In today's modern era, the overwhelming flood of information that constantly flows our way can leave us feeling disoriented, lost, and powerless. Even science – our most trusted source of truth – can be taken out of context to fuel division and distort the reality around us. In the midst of this confusion, how can we learn to ground ourselves and find guideposts that can direct our lives and work? 

Today, Nate is joined by storyteller and social thinker, Dougald Hine, to explore the importance of narratives in shaping our understa...

(Conversation recorded on January 21st, 2025)

Many of us are familiar with the problem of plastics as a distant issue in the ocean, primarily affecting fish and sea turtles. While these environmental effects are critical, the full scope of plastic's repercussions on human health and well-being is largely unknown by most people, even as the research shows alarming – and growing – adverse effects. What do we need to know about this pervasive material and how it affects the human body?

Today, Nate is joined by environmental health researchers Leo Trasande and Linda Birnbaum, as well as environmental poli...

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The link to submit videos will only be live for a few weeks, so if you'd like to share your story for this project, the time is now.

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(Recorded February 5th, 2025)

In an era of compounding global chal...

(Conversation recorded on November 6th, 2024)  

The vision of a carbon-free, net-zero society is often framed around the promise of transitioning away from fossil fuels. But what can we learn from past "energy transitions" that might inform how feasible – or unrealistic – this vision actually is? 

Today, Nate is joined by energy and technology historian Jean-Baptiste Fressoz for a lesson on the importance of understanding the historical trajectory of energy use for realistically navigating the unprecedented challenges humanity faces today – including the dominant narrative of a modern-day "energy transition." Jean-Baptiste explores the interdependent relationship between different...

(Recorded January 27th, 2025)

We live in an era where artificial intelligence increasingly dominates the headlines with promises of revolutionary advances - from medical breakthroughs to productivity gains. Yet, while society fixates on these micro-level innovations, a deeper macro story remains largely untold: how AI may fundamentally reshape the relationship between humanity, technology, and the living world. As we race towards artificial superintelligence, we face a species-level 'Icarus moment' - where our technological ambitions risk outstripping our collective wisdom as we fly too close to the sun.

In this Frankly, Nate explores seven potential m...

(Conversation recorded on October 30th, 2024)  

Human consumption of fossil fuels - especially oil - is a topic filled with complexity, tension, and uncertainty. Understanding this issue requires accounting for a wide range of factors - from dynamic global markets and widely dispersed reserves to ongoing innovation and geopolitical conflicts. Attempting to navigate this intricate landscape is no easy task. But in the midst of these challenges, are there fundamental truths about the future of energy that experts can agree on?

Today, Nate is joined by geologist and energy expert, Scott Tinker, to delve int...

(Recorded January 20th, 2025)

We are alive at a critical juncture for human civilization, and the biosphere, where the pursuit and accumulation of power - accelerated by technology and AI - increasingly threatens the support systems of the diversity and majesty of complex life on Earth. These high stakes of our times require a radical reimagination and commitment to who we are capable of becoming as homo sapiens: a shift from narrow to wide-boundary sovereignty, moving beyond individual survival strategies and towards collective wisdom and restraint. 

In this Frankly, Nate outlines nine aspirational categories for empowering m...

(Conversation recorded on December 18th, 2024)  

With the increase in geopolitical conflicts, supply chain challenges, and unprecedented natural disasters, there is more need than ever for international humanitarian organizations that transcend political and national allegiances. How will such organizations grow and evolve to become a central component to humanity's adaptation to the coming Great Simplification? 

In this episode, Nate is joined by European Regional Director for The Red Cross, Birgitte Bischoff, to discuss her vision for the future of humanitarian work and the challenges and opportunities for more proactive and prepared planning. Together, they disc...

(Conversation recorded on December 11th, 2024)

The past century has been marked by the rise of globalization in every sense of the word - through production, culture, agriculture, consumption and more. This trend has brought great wealth and opportunities to many people - but what have we lost and forgotten through this process?

In this Reality Roundtable, Nate is joined by members of the bioregioning movement, Daniel Christian Wahl, Samantha Power, and Isabel Carlisle, to discuss the necessity of reconnecting to our local places for the sake of addressing our ecological, social, and economic...

(Conversation recorded on December 4th, 2024)  

It is an unfortunate reality that the countries least responsible for the climate and ecological crises we face are often the ones most vulnerable to their effects today and in the future. India – with its population of 1.4 billion, rapidly rising temperatures, and limited resources compared to many developed nations – finds itself at the crossroads of these challenges. What do India's leading scientists and advocates have to say about coping with these extreme pressures?  

In this episode, Nate is joined by environmentalist and policy advocate Sunita Narain to discuss the intri...

(Conversation recorded on November 25th, 2024)

The crises that our world is facing seem to be constantly growing, leading to enormous and devastating systemic effects across the globe. Yet, the ripples of the human predicament are also reaching our personal lives in unexpected ways – through chronic loneliness, loss of coherence to reality, and a widespread feeling of insignificance. 

How do we begin to navigate the crisis of meaning that seems to accompany modernity, exacerbated by feeling out of control in the broader world we live in? 

In today's conversation, Nate is joined by pr...

This year on The Great Simplification, we heard from 54 guests, 18 Reality Roundtable panelists, and Nate shared his thoughts across 31 Frankly episodes. But even after releasing 300+ hours of conversations and reflections since this show began, we are only just beginning to connect all the moving parts that make up The Human Predicament.

As 2025 approaches, we invite you to reflect on this compilation of answers to a question that Nate asks every guest: "If you could wave a magic wand – and there was no personal recourse to your decision, what is one thing you would do to improve human an...

(Recorded December 16, 2024)

As we wrap up another year of thought-provoking discussions on The Great Simplification, Nate takes us on an imaginative journey in this week's Frankly - exploring a potential movie script idea that blends systems, science and fiction. What if someone who deeply understood the challenges of today's global economic Superorganism could travel back in time? Armed with the knowledge of our current ecological and economic trajectory, what would they change? What could they change?

Hollywood media could serve as a powerful tool to educate and inspire a wider audience on the s...

(Conversation recorded on November 7th, 2024)  

Long-time listeners of The Great Simplification may have a good grasp of the many impending crises that humanity faces. But once we understand the scope of this predicament, what changes could we make to prepare in our own communities right now? 

Today, Nate is joined by local organizer and activist Christian Sawyer, to discuss how he's built a pro-social community in rural Arizona. Christian emphasizes the power of local collaboration and demonstrates how the cultivation of social capital builds resilience in the face of challenges, as well as crea...

(Recorded December 5, 2024)

It's not everyday that a stranger thanks you for 'ruining their life'. In this heartfelt Frankly, Nate reflects on a powerful encounter with a venture capitalist whose life was upended - and ultimately enriched - after immersing himself in the full content of The Great Simplification podcast. This man's journey from techno-optimism to a deeper understanding of the limits of infinite growth on a finite planet shines a light on the purpose of this channel: to inspire and equip curious, prosocial individuals to channel their skills and creativity toward building a future that's b...

(Conversation recorded on November 5th, 2024)  

It is no secret that population dynamics significantly impact global stability. But what's really behind today's shifting global birth trends, the increased need for medically-assisted pregnancy, and the changing age demographics of industrialized nations? Furthermore, what are the implications of these shifts for future economic security? 

Today, Nate is joined by investment strategist Jeremy Grantham to discuss the critical but underreported issues surrounding toxicity and public health – particularly endocrine disruptors and their impact on human fertility, longevity, and societal structures. 

In this important conversation, Jeremy highlights the ubi...

(Conversation recorded on December 2nd, 2024)

One of the central ecological challenges of our time is addressing the plastic and petrochemical pollution that has exploded over the past several decades. This global issue will require the cooperation of all nations. But based on the disintegration of UN negotiations for a treaty on plastic pollution last Sunday, this is easier said than done. 

In this special episode, Nate is joined by toxicologist Jane Muncke, who provides an in-depth analysis following the final day of discussions in Busan, South Korea. Together, they explore the complex intergovernmental ne...

(Recorded November 26, 2024)

As we piece together the different facets of our reality, the systems synthesis which emerges confronts us with some uncomfortable truths. These are the advanced inferences rooted in the logic of The Great Simplification. They have important implications for our expectations about the future and how we should respond in the present.

In this Frankly, Nate revisits some key messages from this channel and delves into some of the more challenging takeaways. The logic of the Superorganism reveals why narrow focus on solutions while extrapolating current trends will be insufficient for a...

(Conversation recorded on October 22nd, 2024)  

The human system as we know it today – which powers our economies, global supply chains, and social contracts – is a fragile network based on innumerable complex components. Yet we rarely stop to recognize its many vulnerabilities, instead taking for granted that it will continue to securely operate indefinitely. But if we take a more careful look, how can we assess the risks of major catastrophic events that could destroy life as we know it?   

Today, Nate is joined by Luke Kemp, a researcher whose work is focused on existentia...

(Recorded November 21, 2024)

Two weeks ago, in a Frankly called The Battles of Our Time, Nate commented on human behavior and said that, in today's world, only three to four percent of humans are going to do the right thing and appeal to the 'better angels' of their nature. Today's Frankly is a follow-up and clarification of what he meant. 

It's true that humans are deeply influenced by our evolutionary past. It is also true that our current economic structures, cultural norms, and the inner workings of the superorganism shape our actions. But the ma...

(Conversation recorded on November 11th, 2024, prior to a ceasefire declared between Israel and Lebanon on November 27th, 2024)

If you've followed TGS for some time, you've heard Nate speak about The 5 Horsemen – the biggest risks for humans and civilization in the coming decade. Today's episode delves into one of the most rapidly escalating: geopolitics. 

Today, Nate is joined by Political Economy Professor Helen Thompson to explore the evolving understanding of energy's role in international relations, particularly in the context of recent conflicts in the Middle East. They discuss the challenge of anticipating the volatile chan...