The Bitcoin Layer
By: The Bitcoin Layer
Language: en
Categories: Business, Investing, Technology, Education
The Bitcoin Layer is a premium markets research provider, covering bitcoin through a global macro lens | Research, Analysis, & Education Featuring Nik Bhatia, author of the #1 Amazon bestseller Layered Money and USC Marshall School of Business professor. Subscribe to our research publication and YouTube channel to learn about global macroeconomics, bitcoin, Lightning Network, the monetary and financial system, the Federal Reserve, interest rates, and geopolitics. Most importantly, develop a framework for understanding global markets—connect the dots between economic and financial concepts to see the bigger picture. Look no further for your bitcoin and macro education!
Episodes
Why STRATEGY Stands Alone & Why Most Bitcoin Treasury Companies Cannot Last
Dec 15, 2025In this episode, Nik and Joakim Book break down why Strategy’s balance-sheet structure, perpetual preferred design, and debt flexibility make it uniquely durable while most 2025 Bitcoin treasury companies are already cracking under MNAV compression, leverage mistakes, and collapsing share premiums. They explain how convertible debt, pipe deals, equity dilution, and falling Bitcoin prices have exposed structural flaws across the sector, why forced selling risk is overstated for Strategy but real for smaller firms, and how Tether flows, liquidity dynamics, and equity market pressure shaped this entire cycle. The discussion sets the record straight on why Strategy’s model rema...
Duration: 00:39:07EUROPEAN BREAKING POINT: Italy Takes Gold Back, Sovereign Bond Crisis, & Bitcoin w/ Matt Dines
Dec 11, 2025In this episode, Nik and Matt Dines break down the European sovereign stress that has become a major driver of global liquidity and Bitcoin’s recent moves. They walk through the ECB’s need to defend German and French yields, Italy’s push to reclaim gold authority, and why Euro strength signals deeper funding pressure inside Europe. Nik and Matt explain how balance sheet constraints, dollar selling, and capital sourcing across offshore markets pulled liquidity out of Bitcoin, plus how bond spreads, demographic pressures, and geopolitical fractures frame the next phase of this macro cycle.
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Duration: 00:51:38THE MOST IMPORTANT DOCUMENT OF 2025: What the New U.S. National Security Strategy Means for Markets
Dec 09, 2025In this episode, Nik breaks down the White House’s new National Security Strategy and explains why it is the most important document released by the administration so far. He walks through the shift away from globalism, the focus on reshoring industrial capacity, and how defense spending, technology investment, and middle class revitalization tie directly into future market structure. Nik analyzes the new Monroe Doctrine framing, the balance of power approach with China, the administration’s stance on Europe, and how energy dominance, AI, and military production shape credit creation and capital flows. He explains why these policies matter for...
Duration: 00:59:57INTEREST EXPENSE EXPLODES: Why The Fed Must Cut & What It Means For Bitcoin
Dec 05, 2025In this episode, Nik breaks down why the Fed is effectively locked into a rate cut next week as repo tightness eases, QT halts, and Treasury interest expense reaches historic levels. He covers how falling yields, weaker dollar action, & a turning liquidity cycle are shaping Bitcoin’s path as it holds near $90,000. Nik also dives into bond volatility, the debt math forcing lower rates, & what TBL Liquidity is signaling for Bitcoin & risk assets going into year end.
Episode links: https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/2025-National-Security-Strategy.pdf
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Duration: 00:21:27Bitcoin Holds $90,000: Volatility, Yields, & The FED’S NEXT PRINT
Dec 03, 2025In this episode, Nik breaks down why US Treasury interest expense has become the most important story in finance, how lower rates are now a mathematical necessity for the United States, and why bond volatility remains the primary driver of Bitcoin’s price. He explains the pressure inside the repo market, the role of Japanese yields in recent volatility, the dollar’s evolving relationship with China, and how Bitcoin is holding its two year trend despite sharp macro turbulence. Nik also details why the Fed will eventually need to expand its balance sheet, how liquidity flows are shifting across glob...
Duration: 00:27:42Inside Bitcoin’s Trend Shift: Bear Zone, Liquidations, & Key Support
Nov 26, 2025In this episode, Demian and Johan unpack Bitcoin’s recent trend break, the shift into bear territory on several on chain metrics, and why the short term holder cost basis and true market mean are now critical levels. They cover the liquidation cascade that started in October, the divergence in put call positioning across exchanges, the sharp drop in open interest, and the surprising strength of the most recent WIC off $80,000. Johan explains how trend structure, RSI momentum, realized profit behavior, and valuation zones fit together, what would confirm a reversal, and why the four year cycle may be lo...
Duration: 00:48:56Can NVIDIA’s EARNINGS JOLT Spark a Bitcoin Reversal?
Nov 20, 2025In this episode, Nik breaks down whether Nvidia’s blockbuster earnings report can be the spark that turns momentum positive for Bitcoin as it tests the crucial $87,000 to $90,000 support. He walks through the money markets monitor, the TGA rollover, and how shifts in reserves, repo usage, and liquidity flows may have driven the recent drawdown across stocks and Bitcoin. Nik analyzes the Fed corridor, the standing repo facility, Treasury supply dynamics, bond volatility, and what growing correlations between Bitcoin and equities say about the path forward. He explains why the next few weeks hinge on liquidity, volatility, and whether th...
Duration: 00:29:10INSIDE THE SELLOFF: Bitcoin, Sanctions, & The Liquidity Drain
Nov 17, 2025In this episode, Nik breaks down Bitcoin’s sharp fall through $100,000 and explains how a surge in volatility across stocks, bonds, and the dollar has triggered a broad liquidity drain. He explores the Luke Oil divestiture pressure, Treasury sanctions, and why forced asset sales are pulling capital out of risk markets. Nik walks through the TBL Liquidity Index, the new sell signal triggered in late October, and the critical $87,000 to $88,000 support area on Bitcoin that will define whether the bull trend stays intact. He compares Bitcoin with gold, reviews stock market stress, and looks ahead to income-driven liquidity tailwinds ex...
Duration: 00:27:10BITCOIN CRASHES THROUGH $100,000 While Macro Volatility Surges & Trend Structure Weakens
Nov 14, 2025In this episode, Nik breaks down Bitcoin’s drop below $100,000, why key trend lines matter, and how TBL Liquidity flipped negative ahead of the move. He covers the failed $108,000 level, the critical support zones near $96.000 and $87,000, the rise in bond volatility, and tightness in the repo market as SOFR hits the ceiling. Nik also explains how the government reopening and TGA spend down may affect reserves, liquidity, and Bitcoin’s path from here.
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Duration: 00:15:28Inside McKinsey’s Global Wealth Report: What It Means for Bitcoin
Nov 13, 2025In this episode, Nik and Demian break down the connection between credit creation, inflation, and productivity, exploring why the world’s debt keeps growing faster than real wealth. Nik explains how money enters the system, when it becomes inflationary, and how productivity can offset rising prices. They discuss McKinsey’s global balance sheet framework, the difference between paper wealth and real wealth, and how Bitcoin could serve as new collateral in a re-collateralized financial system built for long-term stability and growth.
Link to Nik's latest report: https://thebitcoinlayer.substack.com/p/the-macroeconomy-seeks-productivity
Link to McKinsey's report: http...
LIQUIDITY Explained SIMPLY: How It Really Moves BITCOIN
Nov 10, 2025In this episode, Nik explains why Bitcoin rallied on the news that the U.S. government may soon reopen. He breaks down how Treasury spending, reserves, and deposits move through the financial system, eventually fueling Bitcoin demand. Using a simple four-balance-sheet setup, Nik teaches how TBL Liquidity connects government spending, bank balance sheets, and Bitcoin’s price performance.
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Bitcoin Holds $100,000 as Stocks Recover: TBL Liquidity Explained
Nov 07, 2025In this episode, Nik breaks down the latest global macro data and Bitcoin’s reaction to shifting liquidity conditions around the $100,000 level. He covers repo market tightness, U.S. credit card debt trends, Treasury issuance plans, and debt-to-GDP stability. Nik also compares Bitcoin’s performance to gold, explores what MVRV and realized price reveal about market health, and explains how TBL Liquidity captures the link between funding, risk assets, and Bitcoin’s price action.
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Duration: 00:38:10How the Fed Lost Control of Liquidity (and What It Means for Bitcoin)
Nov 05, 2025In this episode, Nik and Demian unpack how the Fed’s fight to manage repo market tightness is reshaping liquidity and Bitcoin’s price behavior. They break down the balance between inflation, employment, and the Fed’s “unofficial” financial stability mandate, exploring how fiscal dominance and credit creation now drive global money flows more than monetary policy itself. Nik explains why Bitcoin acts as a liquidity asset, not a safe haven, and how the next cycle will be defined by the real economy, not Fed narratives.
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Duration: 00:37:06Fed Liquidity Crunch Explained: Repo, QT, & Bitcoin’s Reaction
Nov 04, 2025In this episode, Nik breaks down a new wave of funding stress across the global liquidity system. He explains how the Treasury’s growing General Account is pulling cash from reserves, why repo spreads are flashing early warning signals, and how the dollar’s rebound is weighing on Bitcoin’s price below $108,000. With markets tightening and liquidity pressure mounting, Nik reveals what these signals mean for Bitcoin, risk assets, and the next phase of the global credit cycle.
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Duration: 00:19:16Liquidity Tightens AGAIN: What the Repo Market Is Telling Us
Oct 31, 2025In this episode, Nik Bhatia breaks down the latest global macro developments including new stress in the repo market, the Fed’s official plan to end QT on November 30, and what these moves mean for liquidity, risk assets, and Bitcoin. Nik explains how the SOFR-to-IORB spread, declining reserves, and Treasury bill issuance point toward tightening conditions that will soon force renewed balance sheet growth. He also covers how “not-QE QE” may unfold, why the dollar and Chinese yuan movements matter for global risk sentiment, and why Bitcoin remains in a consolidation phase as the liquidity cycle turns.
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Duration: 00:20:14THE FED ENDS QT: Fiscal Dominance, Repo Stress, & Bitcoin’s Signal
Oct 29, 2025In this episode, Nik & Demian Schatt break down the Fed’s latest 25-basis-point rate cut, the announcement to end quantitative tightening, and what it reveals about the growing fiscal dominance shaping global markets. They unpack Joseph Wang’s concept of “Balance Sheet Dominance,” the mounting stress in repo markets, and why the Treasury’s massive bill issuance is now steering the Fed’s hand. The discussion connects these liquidity shifts to Bitcoin’s role in a system where monetary control is slipping, inflation remains sticky, and fiscal power is rewriting the rules of global finance.
Article links: https://fedguy...
Duration: 00:39:12How The Bible Helped Me Understand The Capital War
Oct 28, 2025In this episode, Nik sits down with Kane McGukin to explore how faith, morality, and history shape the global liquidity battle Michael Howell calls The Capital War. Kane explains how reading the Bible helped him understand cycles of credit, power, and moral decay that echo through today’s financial system. The discussion connects biblical wisdom to modern macro, from the U.S.–China rivalry to the shift from Eurodollar banking toward a new liquidity era powered by stablecoins and Bitcoin.
Find Kane McGukin here: https://x.com/kanemcgukin
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Duration: 00:44:22THE GREAT AMERICAN RESET: Credit, Industry, and Bitcoin’s Role in What Comes Next
Oct 23, 2025In this episode, Nik is joined by Matt Dines, CIO of Build Asset Management, for an expansive look at America’s evolving grand strategy. They break down the Fed’s next move in the repo market, the role of gold in global reflation, and how Bitcoin fits into the new era of credit, conflict, and liquidity. Nik and Matt explore the CapEx boom, private credit expansion, and why the U.S. banking system’s structural shift gives it a strategic edge over Europe and China. The discussion connects five centuries of global finance, from gold-backed empires to Bitcoin’s rise as...
Duration: 01:35:05America’s Grand Strategy: Repo, China, Jensen Huang, & Bitcoin’s Next Move
Oct 21, 2025In this episode, Nik breaks down the latest developments in the repo market, the Fed’s growing concern over reserve scarcity, and how these forces connect to America’s reindustrialization strategy. He explains how the shift from LIBOR to SOFR reflects a deeper geopolitical pivot, explores the U.S.–China economic dynamic, and outlines how new capital investment, dollar weakness, and expanding liquidity could drive Bitcoin’s next major cycle.
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Duration: 00:53:58Repo Market MELTDOWN? Gold’s Move Signals Something BIG
Oct 16, 2025In this episode, Nik breaks down what’s happening inside the repo market and why gold’s explosive move toward $4,300 is sending shockwaves through global markets. He explains how rising repo spreads signal emerging reserve scarcity, why the Fed’s standing repo facility is being used again, and what it all means for liquidity, volatility, and Bitcoin’s next move. Nik also shares why the gold price action is unlike anything seen in decades, and whether it points to a deeper crisis that could force the Fed to restart QE.
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Duration: 00:30:59The Philosophy of Bitcoin & Fiat: Credit, Justice, & Sound Money
Oct 13, 2025In this episode, Nik sits down with Pascal Hügli to explore the philosophical and structural tensions between Bitcoin and today’s fiat credit system. They discuss how stablecoins, central banking, and government spending are reshaping global money creation, and what Bitcoin’s emergence means for fairness, justice, and sound finance. Pascal shares insights from his new book on Bitcoin, explaining how the current system evolves toward fiscal dominance and why Bitcoin may serve as the foundation for a new, market-based credit layer built on production, not debt.
Pascal's Book: http://amzn.eu/d/5kn4HqQ
Pasca...
Bitcoin Reacts to Tariff Tensions: What’s Next for Price & Liquidity
Oct 10, 2025In this episode, Nik breaks down how new U.S. tariffs on China triggered a spike in volatility across global markets and sent Bitcoin lower after a strong start to October. He explains how the administration’s re-industrialization policies tie into the Fed’s rate path, the Treasury market, and housing policy. Nik covers the latest moves in oil, yields, and the yield curve, showing how the Fed’s mortgage unwind and fiscal spending cycle shape liquidity and Bitcoin’s next move.
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Duration: 00:32:22The Future of Bitcoin Mining: Home Miners, Pools, & Open Source Innovation
Oct 06, 2025In this episode, Nik is joined by Robert Warren, author of The Bitcoin Miners Almanac and Head of Research and Education at Bitcoin Park. They discuss the evolution of Bitcoin mining from industrial operations to the new wave of home miners integrating mining into heating, water systems, and solar panels. Robert explains how open source R&D is reshaping hardware, why decentralizing ASIC design matters, and how energy innovation is making mining more efficient and resilient. The conversation also explores mining pools, payout models, censorship resistance, and the next chapter of Bitcoin’s energy infrastructure.
256 Foundation Link: ht...
Duration: 00:48:07BITCOIN PUMPING: Fed Cuts, Liquidity, & The Next Breakout
Oct 03, 2025In this episode, Nik breaks down Bitcoin’s strong start to October and what the latest pump means in the context of global macro. He explains how falling policy rates, Treasury yields, and dollar weakness are shaping liquidity conditions and risk markets. Nik highlights why correlations between Bitcoin and stocks matter, what average hourly earnings signal about inflation risk, and how the Fed’s shift from restrictive to accommodative policy will impact the next leg higher. The update also covers TBL Liquidity, our proprietary framework for measuring Bitcoin’s macro drivers, and why liquidity cycles outperform in the short run bu...
Duration: 00:21:55Bitcoin Breakout or Fade: $119,000 Test & Market Behavior
Oct 02, 2025In this episode, Nik is joined by TBL research associate Johan Bergman to analyze Bitcoin’s latest price action and on-chain signals. They break down the bullish engulfing pattern that may mark a trend reversal, explain why high-volume nodes at $105K and $117K act as support and resistance, and discuss the behavior of longs and shorts as positions reset. Johan highlights healthy signals in the derivatives market, including balanced funding rates and short squeezes, while on-chain data shows billions in realized profits and the overhang that must clear before price can break higher. The conversation ties SOPR, funding rates, se...
Duration: 00:41:34Saving Satoshi: Learning Bitcoin Through an Interactive Game
Sep 30, 2025In this episode, Nik sits down with Stacie, Christoph and Matthew from the Saving Satoshi team to explore their interactive Bitcoin education project. Saving Satoshi is a story-driven RPG that teaches the fundamentals of Bitcoin’s protocol from mining and hashing to signatures, transactions and Lightning. The conversation covers how the game helps newcomers and developers understand Bitcoin at its core, why interactive learning matters, and how educators are integrating Saving Satoshi into classrooms and workshops. The team explains their design process, coding challenges and why protocol knowledge makes Bitcoin stronger as both technology and money.
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Duration: 00:28:27Global Macro Update: Bitcoin Support, Gold Ratio, & the Fed’s Cuts
Sep 25, 2025In this episode, Nik delivers a full global macro update with Bitcoin at a critical crossroads. He explains why funding rates are rolling off, volatility is at record structural lows, and how support levels could determine the next major move for Bitcoin. The update also explores the Bitcoin–gold ratio and why it fits into a long-term power law path, with Bitcoin continuing to outperform traditional stores of value. Nik connects these signals to Fed policy, the Treasury market, and dollar weakness, showing how liquidity conditions are shaping risk markets and Bitcoin itself.
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Duration: 00:27:41Bitcoin Price Levels to Watch: Short-Term Holders in Control
Sep 24, 2025In this episode, Nik is joined by TBL research associate Johan Bergman for a deep dive into Bitcoin’s latest price action and on-chain signals. Johan explains why the short-term holder cost basis has defined Bitcoin’s trading range for the past three years, and how the $104,000 level aligns with the 200-day moving average and key volume nodes. The discussion covers RSI momentum, Bollinger Band compression, and why realized volatility continues to decline as Bitcoin matures as an asset class. Nik and Johan outline the major support levels, what a breakdown would mean for the current bull market, and how...
Duration: 00:33:36The Fed Is NOT In Control: Why Markets Lead & Bitcoin Reacts
Sep 19, 2025In this episode, Nik is joined by TBL researcher Demian Schatt to break down the Fed’s latest rate cut and why it’s just catching up to what markets have already priced in. He explains the meaning of the Fed’s “neutral rate,” why central bank policy lags economic conditions, and how the SOFR curve and MOVE index signal shifting liquidity dynamics. Nik and Demian explore the market’s expectations for inflation, the historical roots of Fed-government coordination, and the growing tension between monetary independence and fiscal reality. They unpack how rate cuts, volatility compression, and credit system stability in...
Duration: 00:40:20Bitcoin & Liquidity Academy 3: Primary Dealers, U.S. Treasuries & the Fed
Sep 17, 2025In this episode, Nik continues our TBL classroom series on Bitcoin and liquidity. He breaks down the inner workings of the U.S. Treasury market, the role of primary dealers, and how the Federal Reserve interacts with both. This lesson covers the mechanics of QE and QT, Fed balance sheet dynamics, and how treasuries move from issuance to investor portfolios. Nik also introduces the concept of liability-driven investing and asset-liability matching to explain long-term treasury demand. This episode continues to build the foundation for understanding Bitcoin’s place within the global liquidity system.
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Duration: 00:21:57How Bitcoin Is Powering a New Credit Market
Sep 15, 2025In this episode, Nik welcomes Arch Lending CEO and co-founder Dhruv Patel to explore the emerging world of Bitcoin-backed lending. Dhruv explains how Arch provides overcollateralized loans to individuals and institutions, using Bitcoin as pristine collateral without rehypothecation. The conversation covers risk management, loan-to-value dynamics, interest rate trends, and why credit markets help legitimize Bitcoin as an asset class. Nik also breaks down the layered money framework and how Arch’s CLO facility taps institutional capital to fund loans. This episode offers a deep dive into Bitcoin’s growing role in the credit system and the long-term implications for econ...
Duration: 00:29:19Bitcoin Hits $116,000 as the Fed Eyes Rate Cuts
Sep 12, 2025In this episode, Nik Bhatia breaks down the macroeconomic forces driving Bitcoin above $116,000, including a broad decline in interest rates, softening U.S. labor market data, and rising expectations for Fed rate cuts. He walks through updated CPI figures, ISM services and manufacturing signals, and why the Fed is likely to cut another 75bps even without a formal recession. Nik also examines the Treasury yield curve’s parallel shift, bond market dynamics, and the strategic reliance on Treasury bills. The discussion turns to gold’s breakout and global monetary shifts, including China and Russia’s move away from the U.S. d...
Duration: 00:37:49Bitcoin & Liquidity Academy 2: How $37 Trillion in US Debt Shapes Global Markets
Sep 08, 2025In this episode, Nik continues our Bitcoin & Liquidity Academy with a deep dive into fixed income market structure and its role in global capital markets. He explains how loans become securities, why bonds trade differently than stocks, and how the Treasury system is organized through CUSIPs. Nik unpacks the scale of the $120 trillion bond market, contrasts equity and debt financing, and walks through who owns U.S. Treasuries today. He also explores the link between GDP, tax revenue, and debt service, framing the U.S. balance sheet as a key lens for understanding future liquidity.
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Duration: 00:25:49Inside the Global Liquidity Shift Powering Bitcoin with Dr. Jeff Ross
Sep 04, 2025In this episode, Nik is joined by Dr. Jeff Ross to assess the US economy, global geopolitics, and what they mean for Bitcoin. They review the post-2020 policy regime, fiscal dominance, and why PMIs and new orders may be turning up, then discuss the Supreme Court path for tariffs, the US push on chips and energy, and the risk of a hot conflict with China. Jeff explains his liquidity blob framework, how the TGA and RRP shift money between the public and the government, and why expanding liquidity tends to move out the risk curve into assets like Bitcoin...
Duration: 00:46:04Collateral Wars: Bitcoin, Chips, & The Next Dollar System
Sep 03, 2025In this episode, Nik sits down with Kane McGukin to map the future of collateral, credit, and liquidity across the global system. They unpack Michael Howell’s Capital Wars, why chips and energy are becoming strategic collateral, how stablecoins can move bank reserves onto usable rails, and where Bitcoin fits as digital collateral. The conversation covers potential credit markets built on Bitcoin, how banks may enter with custody and lending, and why US policy appears to be devaluing dollars to boost technology and rebuild supply chains.
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Duration: 00:40:56Bitcoin & Liquidity Academy 1: Understanding Balance Sheets, Capital, and Treasuries
Aug 30, 2025In this episode, Nik kicks off a new TBL classroom series on Bitcoin and liquidity. He lays the foundation by teaching balance sheets from the ground up, starting with individuals, then firms, and finally the U.S. government. Nik explains how assets, liabilities, and equity interact, why corporations rely on productive capital and cash flow, and how the U.S. Treasury operates the federal balance sheet. He also explores what gives U.S. debt its status as the world's collateral backbone, and how this connects to Bitcoin's role in the financial system. This is the first in a multi-part...
Duration: 00:25:47Is Bitcoin Wealth or Just Money?
Aug 28, 2025In this episode, Nik explores the difference between money and wealth and why Bitcoin may be more than just money. He breaks down three key pillars of societal wealth creation: production and exchange, capital goods, and innovation. Nik explains how Austrian economics helps us understand the true drivers of prosperity. He compares Bitcoin to productive real estate, argues that its accumulation represents a form of digital capital, and shows how its rising market price reflects deeper economic value. This episode offers a foundational lens for understanding why Bitcoin is both a monetary asset and a store of long-term wealth.<...
Duration: 00:12:30HODLing Alone Won’t Secure Your Bitcoin
Aug 25, 2025In this episode, Nik is joined by Mitch Moore, founder of Strong Wealth, to explain why simply HODLing Bitcoin is not enough. Mitch lays out a real financial plan for Bitcoiners, including estate strategies, tax planning, and inheritance protocols. He covers the three pillars of Bitcoin estate planning: legal title transfer, mechanical key access, and heir education. The conversation explores tradeoffs between self custody and custodians, how to set up trusts, and how to avoid costly mistakes when passing Bitcoin to future generations. If you consider Bitcoin a multi decade asset, this episode is essential viewing.
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Duration: 00:30:41Is Bitcoin’s Liquidity Tailwind Ending? MOVE, Repo, and the Dollar Explained
Aug 20, 2025In this episode, Nik is joined by TBL researcher Demian Schatt to break down a major macro signal flashing caution across markets: a sudden spike in the MOVE Index, the bond market’s volatility gauge. He explains why the recent Treasury refunding announcement is pushing rollover risk higher, and what that means for liquidity, credit creation, and risk assets like Bitcoin. Nik also explores the current strength in the dollar, the potential for higher volatility in duration, and whether the multi-month trend of rising liquidity is starting to reverse.
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Duration: 00:41:45The Global Refugee Crisis & The Bitcoin Solution
Aug 15, 2025In this episode, Nik is joined again by Daniel Batten to explore Bitcoin’s role as a humanitarian tool. They unpack a new report showing that over 329,000 refugees have used Bitcoin to escape war, persecution, and financial repression. Daniel explains why traditional tools like cash, gold, and stablecoins often fail during crisis events, and how Bitcoin works where others do not. They highlight stories from Ukraine, Venezuela, and Somalia, and explain how Bitcoin enables borderless money, personal sovereignty, and financial dignity. The episode also covers how this data is being used to change minds in policy circles, the rise of...
Duration: 00:34:30What If the Dollar Ran on Bitcoin?
Aug 13, 2025In this episode, Nik is joined by Ian Major, co-founder of Joltz, to break down the rise of stablecoins on Bitcoin. Ian explains the new infrastructure making it possible, including Lightspark’s SDK, Bitmatrix’s liquidity model, and programmable tools on Bitcoin’s Layer 2. He also covers how this unlocks dollar-denominated smart contracts, real commerce use cases, and a true Bitcoin-native stablecoin experience. The episode includes a look at Tether’s early role proving global demand for on-chain dollars and how Lightning is evolving into a multi-asset layer for users around the world.
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Duration: 00:48:09$1 Million Bitcoin: A Scientific Prediction Explained
Aug 11, 2025In this episode, Nik is joined by astrophysicist and mathematician Stephen Perrenod to unpack the scientific framework behind a potential $1 million Bitcoin. Stephen introduces the Bitcoin Power Law thesis and explains how mathematical modeling, fractals, and historical price patterns point to Bitcoin’s long-term exponential growth. They discuss how this theory differs from stock-to-flow, the role of volatility in Bitcoin’s maturity, and how timeframes like 2031–2033 align with past cycles. The episode offers a data-driven lens into why $1 million per coin may be less speculation and more inevitability.
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Duration: 01:02:52Is It Too Late to Buy Bitcoin in 2025?
Aug 05, 2025In this episode, Nik breaks down whether it’s too late to buy Bitcoin in 2025 now that it trades above $100,000 with a $2 trillion market cap. He walks through Bitcoin’s journey from a niche internet money to a globally recognized monetary asset and explains why this is still the early innings. Nik analyzes Bitcoin’s evolving role as it moves from digital gold to a trade settlement tool capable of replacing U.S. Treasuries, and what that means for its long-term valuation potential. The episode zooms out to explore Bitcoin’s path to global reserve status, generational wealth shifts, and why...
Duration: 00:26:42Bitcoin Drops as Yields Crash: What the Fed Will Do Next
Aug 02, 2025In this episode, Nik breaks down the sharp drop in U.S. Treasury yields following weaker employment data and explains why the bond market is now pricing in imminent Fed rate cuts. He walks through the two-year yield signal, the Fed’s neutral rate dilemma, and why inflation normalization is shifting the policy conversation. Nik also unpacks the latest moves in the dollar, recession signals from ISM data, and how these macro shifts are impacting Bitcoin’s consolidation around $108,000. The update includes a deep dive on the TBL Liquidity Index and the volatility components now driving risk asset repricing.
Bitcoin Collateral & GSE Reform: A $40 Trillion Credit Revolution
Jul 30, 2025In this episode, Nik welcomes back Matt Dines Chief Investment Officer at Build. They discuss the newly enacted GENIUS Act how U.S. dollar stablecoin regulation is tied to Bitcoin collateral usage and what GSE reform could mean for private credit expansion. Matt explains why using Bitcoin holdings as mortgage collateral could unlock Gen Z access to homeownership drive $40 trillion in private credit growth and anchor the monetary system around Bitcoin rails to keep the dollar system alive.
🔗 Links & Sources:
• https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BBXblPDvsJs
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Duration: 01:13:30Why $1 Million Bitcoin Is Closer Than You Think
Jul 29, 2025In this episode, Nik breaks down one of the largest Bitcoin transactions in history: the $9 billion sale of 80,000 BTC by a Satoshi-era wallet through Galaxy Digital. Nik explains how the market absorbed this massive transfer without collapsing, what it says about Bitcoin’s maturity, and why this moment signals growing institutional and OG participation. He also explores the math behind Bitcoin’s path to $1 million, projecting how compounding growth between 30 to 50 percent annually could get us there by 2031 to 2033.
🔗 Links & Sources:
• https://investor.galaxy.com/news/news-details/2025/Galaxy-Executes-One-of-the-Largest-Notional-Bitcoin-Transactions-Ever/default.aspx
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Duration: 00:17:07Global Macro Update: Liquidity Cycles Higher While Bitcoin Consolidates
Jul 25, 2025In this Global Macro Update, Nik explains how the end of QT is reshaping liquidity across markets and supporting bitcoin’s foundation. He breaks down the rise in Treasury bill issuance, steady reserves, and the Fed’s smooth exit from reverse repo, all fueling stronger banking system liquidity. Nik also unpacks the breakdown in the DXY and its connection to U.S. industrial policy. On the bitcoin side, he covers six-figure consolidation, compressing volatility, rising funding rates, and stable on-chain signals like MVRV, framing the macro conditions behind bitcoin’s current strength.
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Duration: 00:26:01Bitcoin Grows as Stablecoins Absorb U.S. Debt
Jul 23, 2025In this episode, Nik is joined by TBL researcher Demian Schatt to break down the Genius Act, stablecoins, and their impact on Bitcoin and the U.S. dollar system. Nik explains how declining foreign demand for Treasuries is being offset by domestic buyers, and why stablecoin growth, especially Tether, now plays a key role in global dollar infrastructure. He introduces the idea of Tether as an emergent world reserve asset, outlines why Washington sees it as a threat, and connects the Genius Act to national security concerns rather than just crypto regulation. The conversation finishes with Bitcoin’s role in...
Duration: 00:27:05This CEO Just Raised $750 Million to Buy Bitcoin With ZERO Debt
Jul 22, 2025In this episode, Nik welcomes Strive CEO Matt Cole to unpack the $750 million raise that positions Strive as one of the largest corporate bitcoin holders. Matt explains why the firm rejected convertible debt, chose a reverse merger over a SPAC, and is building a long-term bitcoin strategy rooted in institutional discipline. Drawing on his experience managing $70 billion at CalPERS, he shares how direct exposure to Fed operations and quiet debt monetization shaped his conviction in bitcoin. They discuss why fiat currencies are in slow-motion default, how stablecoin regulation could backfire, and what sets Strive apart in the next evolution...
Duration: 00:32:01Bitcoin’s Price Floor Just Hit $100,000, and It’s Still Early
Jul 19, 2025In this episode, Nik analyzes bitcoin’s historic climb as its 200-day moving average and short-term holder price both cross $100,000, setting a new price floor. He explains why this milestone reflects deep structural strength, not just market momentum. Nik walks through bitcoin’s $1 trillion realized market cap, rising on-chain activity, and the growing influence of institutional buyers like Strategy. He shows how usage is outpacing speculation, supported by a steady MVRV Z-score, and sets a near-term target of $138,000 to $139,000 with $200,000 on the horizon. While seven figures remain years away, this bull market is grounded in real demand and lasting adop...
Duration: 00:18:53Can the U.S. Lead in AI Without Killing Innovation?
Jul 17, 2025In this episode, Demian Schatt welcomes back Yaël Ossowski of the Consumer Choice Center and Bitcoin Policy Institute to break down the growing fight over AI regulation in the U.S. Yaël explains why a federal moratorium on state-level AI laws was proposed, how it fell out of Trump’s tech bill, and what it means for developers facing a patchwork of conflicting rules. He highlights the threat of the “California spillover,” compares it to Europe’s AI Act, and argues that decentralized innovation needs clear federal standards, not 1,000 competing laws. From copyright lawsuits to energy restrictions on data ce...
Duration: 00:30:24Bitcoin’s Bull Run Is Absorbing MASSIVE Selling w/ James Check
Jul 16, 2025In this episode, Demian Schatt is joined by James Check (Checkmate) from Checkonchain to unpack Bitcoin’s recent breakout and the mystery behind the 80,000 BTC that moved for the first time since 2011. They explore the possible explanations behind the Galaxy Digital transfer, what it reveals about long-dormant supply, and the broader implications for key security assumptions in Bitcoin. James breaks down what made this a “quiet all-time high,” with low spot volume, high-stakes on-chain movement, and surging options activity signaling a shift in market structure. The conversation also covers short liquidations, the rise of institutional accumulation, and why confluence across...
Duration: 00:30:37Bitcoin Soars Past $113,000 as Liquidity Surges and Stablecoins Boom
Jul 10, 2025In this episode, Nik breaks down Bitcoin’s latest breakout to all-time highs and what’s driving price action under the hood. He covers the Golden Cross formation, historical performance following technical breakouts, and how TBL’s proprietary liquidity index offers a signal-rich view of current market conditions. Nik also explores the role of stablecoin growth, Treasury auctions, dollar moves, and credit market calm as contributing factors to Bitcoin strength. The update finishes with a look at on-chain momentum, real yields, and why the combination of stable rates and rising liquidity points to continued upside for risk assets.
🔗 Li...
Duration: 00:16:56Mysterious $8 Billion Bitcoin Move: Quantum Theft, Legal Seizure, or Hoax?
Jul 08, 2025In this episode, Nik breaks down the mysterious on-chain movement of 80,000 dormant Bitcoin that last moved in 2011. He walks through the implications of this $8 billion transaction, the legal-sounding op codes attached to it, and the suspicious BCH test transactions that accompanied the event. Nik explores what this means for assumptions about lost coins, private key security, and even the possibility of quantum theft. With analysis from Checkmate at Checkonchain and Cyphertux, this episode unpacks one of the most intriguing Bitcoin stories of the year—and why the price hasn’t yet reacted.
🔗 Links & Sources:
• Checkmate’s Write-up on...
The Real Link Between M2, Bank Assets & Bitcoin’s $110,000 Strength
Jul 03, 2025In this episode, Nik is joined by TBL researcher Demian Schatt to unpack why Bitcoin is trading so strongly near all-time highs and what the current liquidity setup tells us about where things are headed. They explore the long-debated link between Bitcoin and M2, examine how banking system assets play into TBL’s liquidity model, and walk through the balance sheet mechanics behind Treasury issuance, stimulus, and deposit creation. Nik explains why both M2 and asset-based liquidity matter, and how understanding the plumbing gives investors an edge. The update ends with a technical look at Bitcoin’s recent breakout and...
Duration: 00:27:55Mainstream Media Has FLIPPED on Bitcoin Mining
Jul 01, 2025In this episode, Nik highlights the work of Daniel Batten and walks through 17 examples of mainstream media outlets covering Bitcoin mining in a dramatically more positive light. From Iceland’s renewable-powered farms to flared gas in Texas and hydro-powered villages in Africa, the headlines signal a major shift in narrative. Nik explores how governments like Bhutan are using Bitcoin mining to support economic development, how miners are contributing to energy grids, and how the sector is increasingly seen as a catalyst for sustainability and electrification. This update reflects growing global recognition of Bitcoin’s potential as a public good.
Global Macro Update: Bitcoin Holds Steady as Trade and Treasury Regs Shift
Jun 27, 2025In this episode, Nik breaks down the latest global macro developments driving Bitcoin’s price action and Treasury market conditions. He explores major trade news out of Europe and China, the U.S. agenda to rebalance global trade through weapons exports, and what a new regulatory change means for U.S. bank demand for Treasuries. Nik explains the Fed’s SLR update, Treasury repo mechanics, and why regulatory shifts are designed to reduce foreign reliance on U.S. debt. The update also covers the U.S.–China AI race, Bitcoin mining competitiveness, and a detailed technical look at Bitcoin’s curren...
Duration: 00:23:37U.S. Bitcoin Boom: 50M Users, $30B Mining & Bipartisan Momentum
Jun 25, 2025In this episode, Nik is joined by River’s head of research Sam Baker to discuss “The American Bitcoin Advantage,” a report outlining the United States’ strategic position in Bitcoin adoption. They explore how 40% of Bitcoin’s supply is held by Americans, the growing wave of business adoption, and why Bitcoin is emerging as a preferred treasury asset for companies nationwide. The conversation covers mining investment, bipartisan support in Congress, state-level Bitcoin policies, and how the U.S. can harness Bitcoin as both a technological and monetary advantage in a changing global order.
Find the report here: https://bl...
Duration: 00:33:54Bitcoin’s Hidden Signals REVEALED in the TBL Chart Pack
Jun 24, 2025In this episode, Nik is joined by TBL's lead statistician Augustine Carrasco for a walkthrough of the latest TBL chart pack, covering the key macro and on-chain dynamics shaping Bitcoin’s current structure. They explore long-term holding returns through the lens of Unchained’s HODL Cave, analyze ETF flows and realized cap trends, and introduce quarterly cycles in the TBL Liquidity Index that may offer timing signals. The discussion also touches on dealer behavior in money markets, financial conditions, and the relationship between macro volatility, inflation expectations, and Bitcoin’s path forward.
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Duration: 00:53:00Why Bitcoin EMERGES from Global Chaos
Jun 19, 2025In this episode, Nik welcomes back Matt Pines, executive director of the Bitcoin Policy Institute, for a sweeping analysis of today’s geopolitical storm—and what it means for Bitcoin, global power, and monetary realignment. From Israel–Iran brinkmanship to China’s Belt and Road, Pines explains how great-power conflict is redrawing trade routes, testing U.S. strategy, and accelerating the search for neutral assets. As the world fragments, Bitcoin is emerging as the reserve hedge for a new monetary era—one not built by consensus, but by necessity.
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Duration: 01:01:14Corporations Just Surpassed ETFs in Bitcoin Buying—Here’s What It Means with Matthew Sigel
Jun 16, 2025In this episode, Nik welcomes Matthew Sigel, Head of Digital Assets Research at VanEck, to unpack Bitcoin’s shifting ownership landscape. Corporations have now surpassed ETFs as the largest buyers of Bitcoin, adding over 350,000 BTC in the past year, including 21 new treasury firms in just the last month. Matthew explains how this new wave of adoption is transforming capital markets and creating both upside and risk for shareholders. They dive into BitBonds, a proposal to fund a U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve through Treasury issuance, and explore how sovereign Bitcoin mining—from El Salvador to Pakistan—is becoming a powerf...
Duration: 00:27:08The Physics Behind Bitcoin’s $10 Million Future
Jun 12, 2025In this episode, Nik is joined by astrophysicist Giovanni Santostasi to unpack the Bitcoin Power Law Theory—a scientific framework explaining Bitcoin’s price through natural scaling laws. Giovanni argues that Bitcoin doesn’t follow an exponential curve but a power law, just like cities, living organisms, and networks in nature. He walks through six power laws driving Bitcoin’s growth, including the relationship between price, users, and time—pointing to a mathematically grounded path toward $10 million. Backed by physics and real-world data, Giovanni presents a bold theory: Bitcoin is not just an asset—it’s a living, evolving system.
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Duration: 01:11:34Bitcoin’s Bull Market Is Being Built—One Credit Tranche at a Time
Jun 10, 2025Description: In this episode, Nik answers questions from Demian about the structural drivers behind Bitcoin’s strength near all-time highs. He explains how tightening credit spreads on Strategy’s Bitcoin-backed debt reflect growing investor confidence, and why capital is flowing into Bitcoin through corporate capital structures and yield-bearing instruments. The discussion covers index inclusion, passive portfolio flows, and how Bitcoin exposure is increasingly being built into traditional financial products. Nik also examines Treasury market conditions, real yields, and why Bitcoin depends on credit stability—not chaos—for its next leg higher.
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Duration: 00:38:52Trump vs. Musk: A Public Breakup, A Deeper Economic Story
Jun 07, 2025In this episode, Nik answers questions from Demian about the Trump–Musk fallout and what it reveals about the trajectory of U.S. economic policy. He unpacks the politics behind Trump’s budget bill, Musk’s frustration with runaway spending, and how credit expansion continues to power the system. Nik explains why fiscal dominance now drives markets, and how Bitcoin and gold are rising as Treasuries face growing challenges to their role atop the global monetary hierarchy.
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Duration: 00:37:04Global Macro Update: The Fed Isn’t Easing—And Bitcoin Doesn’t Care
Jun 04, 2025In this episode, Nik breaks down the current macro landscape through the lens of Bitcoin, interest rates, and market liquidity. He shares new insights from TBL’s proprietary liquidity index, revealing how quarterly cycles in the Treasury market are shaping Bitcoin’s price behavior. Nik also unpacks key valuation metrics like the Mayer Multiple and MVRV, and explains why Bitcoin’s current range suggests a stable foundation. The update covers bond volatility, yield curve dynamics, Fed expectations, gold, oil, and the dollar—placing it all within the broader context of a global monetary reset.
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Duration: 00:27:04Bitcoin 2025 Recap: What the Crowd Proved, What the Price Shows
May 31, 2025In this episode, Nik recaps Bitcoin 2025 in Las Vegas—where the energy wasn’t about price hype, but real-world adoption, corporate treasury interest, and global legitimacy. He shares conversations with readers, the emergence of institutional presence, and what the crowd revealed about Bitcoin’s next phase. Nik closes with a quick technical breakdown of the recent weekly candle and what it may signal for Bitcoin’s near-term price action.
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📊 The Bitcoin Layer is a bitcoin and global macroeconomic research firm.<...
Duration: 00:19:11The Financial War Has Begun: Bitcoin, Stablecoins & the End of Eurodollars
May 24, 2025In this episode, Nik is joined by Kane McGukin, a traditional wealth manager and longtime Bitcoin writer. They break down the global financial war unfolding through treasuries, stablecoins, and Bitcoin. From the collapse of Eurodollar dominance to the rise of SOFR and secured collateral systems, the U.S. is reshaping liquidity—and weaponizing financial plumbing to defend its position. Kane explains how Bitcoin fits into this new system as a reserve asset, how stablecoins function as Eurodollar 2.0, and why treasuries and gold are being repositioned for strategic leverage. The rules of global money are changing—and this conversation maps the...
Duration: 00:52:43Bitcoin Blows Past $110,000—This Is the Candlestick Masterclass You Asked For
May 22, 2025In this episode, Nik breaks down Bitcoin’s explosive move past $110,000 through the lens of candlestick analysis. From foundational concepts to advanced signals, this full lesson in candle behavior uses Bitcoin’s current bull market as a live case study. Nik covers higher lows, resistance breakouts, the Three White Soldiers pattern, and the critical role of weekly shadows in revealing market conviction. The chart comes first, the narrative follows—and the candles have been signaling strength for months. With seven straight green candles and momentum building, price is leading—and the bull market is unfolding candle by candle.
<... Duration: 01:01:49
Bitcoin’s Bull Run Is Built on Liquidity—As Long as Treasuries Stay Calm
May 20, 2025In this episode, Nik breaks down the quiet force powering Bitcoin’s 2025 bull market: calm in the Treasury market. As bond volatility unwinds, risk assets are thriving. Nik explains how Bitcoin, as a liquidity asset, is tied to Treasury stability through credit creation, term premiums, and the pace of government debt relative to GDP. He covers Bitcoin’s institutional FOMO, the mechanics of the yield curve, and the rising pressure across global markets—highlighted by a growing gold story out of Europe.
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... Duration: 00:22:55
Bitcoin’s Financialized Bull Market: What’s Driving the Price in 2025
May 16, 2025In this episode, Nik answers Demian’s questions about what’s driving Bitcoin’s price in 2025, as ETFs, options, and structured products reshape the bull market. With new pipes built for institutional capital to flow into Bitcoin, financialization is transforming how price behaves—suppressing volatility, changing breakout dynamics, and introducing both long and short positioning at scale. Nik breaks down what this means for on-chain signals, how MVRV still reveals conviction, and why Bitcoin may no longer follow the boom-and-bust cycles of the past.
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Bitcoin Is Now a Macro Asset—James Check Explains Why $150,000 Is Coming
May 15, 2025In this episode, Nik Bhatia sits down with James Check (Checkmate) to break down the latest shifts in Bitcoin market structure, sentiment, and investor behavior. They explore how the macro landscape and price action are shaping this phase of the bull market, with an emphasis on derivatives, MVRV, and the psychology of unrealized losses. The conversation highlights the transition from mining-driven cycles to behavior-driven dynamics and how corporate treasury strategies are now influencing Bitcoin’s long-term trajectory. Nik and James discuss what recent price ranges reveal about investor confidence and why patience remains key in navigating evolving market conditions.
... Duration: 00:45:26Bitcoin Is Opting Out. The Fed Is Just Holding the System Together.
May 09, 2025In this episode, Nik Bhatia and TBL Research Associate Demian Schatt unpack how the Federal Reserve actually influences the financial system—and who it serves. They discuss what happens mechanically when the Fed changes rates, why bond market expectations matter more than policy statements, and how the entire credit system is structured to resist deflation. Nik shares insights on the origins of the 2% inflation target, the fragility of the banking system, and how Bitcoin fits into a world built on rolling debt and central bank intervention. The conversation also touches on Larry Lepard’s The Big Print and the grow...
Duration: 00:33:33Bitcoin Mining Is Cleaning the Grid — Here’s the Truth
May 07, 2025In this episode, Nik is joined by Bitcoin researcher Daniel Batten to unpack the latest Cambridge report on Bitcoin mining and energy. They reveal how years of misinformation—driven by central banks and amplified by the media—have distorted public perception of Bitcoin’s environmental impact. Drawing on new data, Daniel explains how miners are increasingly using off-grid and stranded energy, stabilizing power grids and accelerating renewable adoption. From landfill methane in Latin America to hydropower in Ethiopia, this conversation highlights Bitcoin’s growing role in global energy innovation.
Link to article: https://www.jbs.cam.ac.uk...
Duration: 00:36:41I Went Down a Eurodollar Rabbit Hole with AI
May 06, 2025In this video, Nik Bhatia explores the Eurodollar system through an unexpected lens—a conversation with Grok. Drawing from his own research in Layered Money and Bitcoin Age, Nik traces the origins of offshore dollar finance, explains how Regulation Q and Cold War politics fueled the rise of the Eurodollar market, and examines China’s role in expanding this shadow system through the Belt and Road Initiative. As global capital flows collide with U.S. trade policy and economic reordering, this episode uncovers how the Eurodollar system fits into the broader financial war unfolding today.
📚 Bitcoin...
Duration: 00:32:49Bitcoin Holds STRONG Amid Falling Treasury Yields
May 03, 2025In this episode, Nik Bhatia sits down with TBL Research Associate Demian Schott to break down Bitcoin’s strong price action despite signs of macroeconomic slowdown. They explore how falling bond volatility, shifting interest rate expectations, and the Fed’s potential rate cuts are boosting risk assets through the TBL Liquidity lens. Nik explains how market certainty affects dealer activity, why lower yields matter for Bitcoin and stocks, and what the two-year Treasury yield is signaling about future Fed policy. The conversation also touches on global trade, Eurodollar flows, and the political dynamics influencing inflation and long-term interest rates.
China Grabs Gold As The U.S. Shuts Off Dollar Liquidity
Apr 30, 2025In this episode, Nik Bhatia and Matt Dines unpack the evolving dynamics of global finance, focusing on gold’s renewed monetary role, the effects of China’s gold market activity, and the broader trend of de-dollarization. They explore how tariffs and shifting trade flows are reshaping global dollar circulation, and examine the interplay between gold, bitcoin, and dollar strength. The conversation also covers the Eurodollar system, Ukraine war financing, and how changes in labor and capital are shaping the current macro landscape.
📚 Bitcoin Age is here, order yours today: https://a.co/d/5gau08H
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Duration: 01:04:50America’s New War on Offshore Dollar Power
Apr 28, 2025In this video, Nik dives into America’s new financial war on offshore dollar power. He outlines how the Trump administration’s tariffs are just the opening move in a broader strategy to dismantle the Eurodollar system, drain shadow banking liquidity, and force a return to Treasury-backed money. Nik charts the end of 30 years of globalization, the reshaping of global trade, and the early signs of a new monetary world order taking shape right now.
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Duration: 00:23:55NEW WORLD ORDER: Inside the U.S. Plan to Reset Trade, Currency, and Alliances
Apr 26, 2025In this episode, Nik is joined by Tanvi Ratna, founder of Policy 4.0, to break down the Trump administration’s sweeping new strategy: a global trade, currency, and security reordering. Tanvi brings her unique expertise across geopolitics, supply chains, finance, and emerging tech to explain how the U.S. is shifting from a consumer-driven economy to an industrial powerhouse—while reimagining alliances, shipping lanes, and even the future of the dollar system. They discuss the multipolar world taking shape, the BRICS challenge, de-dollarization, and the rising roles of gold and Bitcoin in a new monetary era.
Links...
Duration: 01:08:44Repricing EVERYTHING — Gold, Bitcoin, and the Dollar
Apr 25, 2025In this Global Macro Update, Nik walks through a massive chart pack to help decode today’s volatile macro landscape. Gold is leading the way, outpacing Bitcoin over the past 12 months and signaling a global monetary reset in motion. Nik connects the dots between soaring gold prices, weakening demand for U.S. Treasuries, and a shift away from dollar recycling as trade relationships are restructured. He analyzes Bitcoin’s technical setup, MVRV valuation, and ETF inflows, and explores how rising bond volatility and term premia are draining liquidity. Plus, new insights on the U.S. energy boom, unemployment pressures, and...
Duration: 00:44:25Global Macro Update: Bitcoin Rebounds as Gold Screams Monetary Reset
Apr 22, 2025In this Global Macro Update, Nik highlights bitcoin’s breakout above a key descending trendline and a textbook bullish divergence on the RSI—two technical signals suggesting the recent downtrend may be losing steam. But the bigger story is gold, which is exploding higher in what looks like the early stages of a full-scale monetary reset. With the dollar breaking multi-year support and massive gold inflows hitting the U.S., Nik explores the possibility of a global repricing, driven by collapsing commercial shorts and currency pressure abroad. He connects the dots between price action, trade war policy, capital charge reli...
Duration: 00:32:00What’s REALLY Holding Up the Treasury Market
Apr 17, 2025In this episode, Nik Bhatia is joined by Demian Schatt to examine why the US Treasury market is fundamentally strengthening despite recent volatility. Nik explains key concepts including SLR reform, Treasury buybacks of off-the-run securities, and current repo market dynamics that are supporting market stability. The conversation also explores how deregulation and fiscal discipline will be crucial for long-term Treasury strength and economic growth.
Matt Pines Episode: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eTotxDkCvyY
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Duration: 00:50:50America’s BIG MOVE: How Tariffs and Treasuries Are Changing Everything
Apr 16, 2025In this episode, Nik is joined by Matt Pines, executive director of the Bitcoin Policy Institute, to unpack what could be the biggest shift in U.S. geoeconomic strategy in decades. Together, they explore the vision behind a potential “Bretton Woods 2.0”—a new system emerging from reciprocal tariffs, capital wars, and a shrinking global dollar zone. They dive deep into how the U.S. is building a trade and monetary alliance to isolate China, restructure global capital flows, and re-anchor demand for U.S. Treasuries. With gold, stablecoins, and possibly bitcoin playing growing roles in global settlements, this conversation lays o...
Duration: 00:55:1560 Basis Point Treasury Shock, MOVE Panic—Bitcoin Holds $80,000
Apr 10, 2025In this episode, Nik Bhatia is joined by Demian Schatt to break down one of the most volatile 48-hour stretches in recent bond market history. As Treasury yields spiked 60 basis points and the MOVE Index surged, Nik unpacks the hidden mechanics behind the dislocation—explaining how a highly leveraged basis trade began to unwind, triggering forced selling and market-wide panic. He walks through the role of China’s currency devaluation, the impact of new 125% tariffs, and how synthetic credit in the swaps market amplified the chaos. With bond volatility ripping, Nik explores what it means for the Fed’s reacti...
Duration: 00:49:36Tariffs as Strategy: How Trump Wields U.S. Power
Apr 08, 2025In this episode, Nik is joined by PhD economist Peter St. Onge for a masterclass on the strategic use of tariffs in Trump’s economic agenda. Peter explains how tariffs serve as strategic tools, not protectionist measures, to reshape global trade, revive U.S. manufacturing, and drive domestic deregulation. He breaks down America’s asymmetric trade relationships with Europe, China, and Mexico, and outlines why Trump’s approach is grounded in realpolitik. Peter also explores the Fed’s role in enabling crisis-driven spending and how Bitcoin offers a way out of fiat dysfunction. Closing with the global stakes of shifting...
Duration: 00:35:52Global Macro Update: Stocks Break Down, Bitcoin Teeters Near Support
Apr 07, 2025In this Global Macro Update, Nik Bhatia breaks down one of the most chaotic weeks in markets this year, using price action to explain the forces driving volatility across treasuries, stocks, Bitcoin, and the dollar. He outlines how the recent collapse in 2-year yields to 3.5% confirms that the Fed's hiking cycle is over, with rate cuts still expected even amid a strong labor market. Nik zooms out on the steepening yield curve to show how forward inflation expectations are reentering the market, while bond volatility—measured by the MOVE index—spikes to levels that are now dragging down risk asse...
Duration: 00:50:32BIG Shifts in U.S. Bitcoin Policy: IRS Rollbacks and Strategic Reserve Plan
Apr 02, 2025In this episode, Demian Schott welcomes Yaël Ossowski of the Consumer Choice Center and Bitcoin Policy Institute to break down major shifts in U.S. Bitcoin policy. Yaël explains how Congress’s repeal of the IRS’s DeFi broker rule is a win for privacy and innovation, and why a de minimis tax exemption is key to using Bitcoin as real money. He outlines budget-neutral strategies to grow the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and highlights the need for stablecoin legislation, money transmission reform, and the Keep Your Coins Act. With real momentum in Congress and agencies, Yaël shares...
Duration: 00:38:20Why Bitcoin Pumped: Fed’s QT Shift Explained
Mar 25, 2025In this episode, Nik explains how the Federal Reserve’s slowdown in quantitative tightening (QT) is impacting Bitcoin and risk markets. He breaks down the balance sheet mechanics behind QT, showing how fewer Treasury runoffs reduce the burden on private investors, leaving more liquidity in the system. With fewer deposits redirected to government debt, more capital remains available for assets like Bitcoin and equities. Citing insights from former Fed trader Joseph Wang, Nik illustrates how even a modest shift in QT can influence market sentiment and asset prices—without any new money printing.
Link to artic...
Duration: 00:16:44Bitcoin Jumps 5%: Fed Eases QT & Global Liquidity Shifts
Mar 20, 2025In this episode, Nik decodes the Fed’s strategy as Bitcoin surges on the central bank’s decision to slow QT while maintaining its commitment to rate cuts. He breaks down what the Fed’s decision means for liquidity, why banks are holding onto reserves, and how this shift impacts risk assets. Nik also unpacks the latest moves in global bond markets, with Japanese and German yields spiking while U.S. Treasuries remain supported. With TBL’s proprietary liquidity metrics providing key insights, he connects the dots across Bitcoin, stocks, bonds, and global flow to assess what’s next for market...
Duration: 00:32:49Global Macro Update: Recession Fears Surge, But Bitcoin and Risk Markets Bounce
Mar 15, 2025In this global macro update, Nik analyzes the latest economic data and market moves, from recession fears and falling stock prices to Bitcoin’s rebound. He breaks down the drop in consumer sentiment, the wealth effect’s impact on spending, and the yield curve’s steepening as markets price in rate cuts. With Treasury yields falling and gold hitting $3,000, he examines liquidity conditions and shifting inflation expectations. Nik wraps up with Bitcoin’s technical and on-chain indicators, assessing what the latest price action signals for the market ahead.
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Duration: 00:34:00Bitcoin’s 21 Million Supply: Planning for Taxes, Estate & Retirement
Mar 12, 2025In this episode, Nik welcomes Vaughn Kellerman of Sound Advisory to discuss financial planning for Bitcoin holders. With Bitcoin’s fixed supply of 21 million, they explore strategies for managing taxes, estate planning, and retirement while minimizing risk. Vaughn breaks down tax-efficient selling, inheritance planning, and portfolio structuring to balance Bitcoin with traditional assets. They also cover capital gains, multi-bucket tax planning, and charitable giving, outlining practical steps to preserve wealth and ensure a seamless transfer of assets.
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Duration: 00:31:16Global Liquidity Update with Michael Howell: The Case for a U.S. Gold Revaluation Is Building
Mar 08, 2025In this episode, Nik welcomes back Michael Howell, founder of CrossBorder Capital and author of Capital Wars, to discuss global liquidity and the mounting case for a U.S. gold revaluation. Howell explains why M2 is outdated, highlighting the shift to asset-based liquidity as a better market gauge. They explore the U.S. debt spiral, pressure on the Fed to resume QE, and China’s role in shaping liquidity. Howell also examines how a gold revaluation could inject much-needed liquidity into the system as debt levels surge. With tightening financial conditions and shifting risk appetite, this conversation unpacks why li...
Duration: 00:47:36America Moves Toward a Bitcoin-Backed Future
Mar 05, 2025In this episode, Nik sits down with Matt Pines, the new Executive Director of the Bitcoin Policy Institute, to discuss the U.S. government's evolving Bitcoin strategy. They break down the push for a Bitcoin strategic reserve, the political forces shaping policy, and why Bitcoin is essential for economic resilience. Matt explains how government agencies are aligning on Bitcoin’s role, the potential for funding through gold revaluation, and the broader geopolitical stakes. With Bitcoin at the center of financial and policy debates, this conversation highlights how the U.S. is positioning for a Bitcoin-backed future.
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Duration: 01:04:55Bitcoin Whipsaws as Markets Brace for Trump’s Next Move
Mar 04, 2025📚 Bitcoin Age is available for pre-order now: https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0DQK2RQ5J
The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.
Duration: 00:15:36Global Macro Update: Bitcoin Dips, Stocks Stall, Yields Continue to Fall
Feb 26, 2025In this episode, Nik delivers a global macro update as Bitcoin tumbles over 12% this week, down more than 20% from all-time highs. He breaks down the drivers behind this pullback, from shifting risk sentiment to key technical levels, and what it means for the broader market. Nik also unpacks the latest stock market weakness, the sharp drop in Treasury yields, and emerging policy signals from the White House. With TBL’s proprietary metric providing critical insights, he connects the dots across Bitcoin, stocks, bonds, and global liquidity to assess what’s next for markets.
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Duration: 00:24:57Welcome to the BITCOIN AGE: Nik Bhatia’s Latest Book on Money’s Transformation
Feb 24, 2025Bitcoin Age is available for pre-order now: https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0DQK2RQ5J
The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.
Duration: 00:11:58Global Macro Update: Bitcoin’s Liquidity Setup, ETF Flows, and the $300,000 Gold Ratio Path
Feb 20, 2025In this episode, Nik delivers a global macro update as Bitcoin coils for its next major move, with key indicators flashing signals of imminent volatility. He analyzes Bitcoin’s price action relative to its 200-day moving average and short-term holder realized price, revealing why the market is primed for expansion. Nik examines ETF-driven on-chain movements, breaking down how institutional flows are reshaping liquidity and driving demand. With TBL’s proprietary metric signaling a supportive environment, he connects the dots across stocks, bonds, and commodities, explaining why macro conditions are setting up for Bitcoin’s breakout.
📊 The Bitcoi...
Duration: 00:24:51Will U.S. States Buy Bitcoin? $23 Billion in Proposed Bills Say Yes
Feb 13, 2025In this episode, Nik explores the growing movement among U.S. states to establish strategic Bitcoin reserves, with 20 proposed bills representing up to $23 billion in potential Bitcoin purchases. He breaks down the states pushing these initiatives, the legislative progress of key bills, and the impact of these reserves on state budgets and pension funds. The discussion moves to the broader implications of government Bitcoin adoption, the limited daily supply available, and how these purchases could drive significant price pressure. Closing with insights on global adoption, Nik examines how Bitcoin reserve strategies are spreading beyond the U.S., with signs...
Duration: 00:13:40America’s Big Reset: Kill the IRS, Split the Dollar, and Fund It All with Sovereign Wealth
Feb 12, 2025In this episode, Nik unveils a bold idea to split the U.S. dollar, separating the eurodollar system from a new national currency. Before diving in, he breaks down key economic shifts shaping Bitcoin, including the administration’s focus on productivity, deregulation, and credit expansion. The discussion moves to government efficiency, Elon Musk’s audit of federal spending, and how cutting waste could strengthen the Treasury market. Nik then examines the push to eliminate the IRS, the sovereign wealth fund as a potential revenue source, and Bitcoin’s role in this new framework. Closing with his dollar split concept, he exp...
Duration: 00:38:01Bitcoin, Treasuries & Sovereign Wealth: The U.S Economy's Fate Under Trump
Feb 08, 2025In this episode, Nik answers questions from Augustine Carrasco, TBL’s own researcher, on U.S. Treasuries, sovereign wealth, and Bitcoin’s role in government reserves. Nik breaks down the Treasury market’s size, liquidity, and the need for continuous debt issuance, explaining how deficits, interest rates, and market demand shape economic policy. The discussion moves to tariffs, their impact on inflation, and whether ISM manufacturing’s rise signals inflationary pressures. Augustine asks if tariffs are meant to restore U.S. manufacturing, while Nik argues they are driven by geopolitical strategy. Turning to the sovereign wealth fund, Nik examines its ties...
Duration: 00:47:58USA Creates a SOVEREIGN WEALTH FUND—Will Bitcoin Fuel America's Economic Takeover?
Feb 05, 2025In this episode, Nik unpacks one of the most seismic shifts in U.S. economic history—the creation of America’s first sovereign wealth fund. He analyzes what this means for national investment strategy, why it represents a fundamental break from past economic policy, and how it could serve as the ultimate vehicle for Bitcoin accumulation and infrastructure investment. With policymakers already exploring a strategic Bitcoin reserve, Nik examines whether this fund could be the mechanism to bring Bitcoin onto the U.S. balance sheet, following the playbook of energy-rich sovereign wealth funds like Norway and the UAE. He also...
Duration: 00:21:08